Author | Jia Weizhong (Text/Watchmaking)
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the Passenger Car Market Economy Index in January 2022
In 2022, the auto market made a good start, and the consumption capacity and consumption level of passenger cars increased in January. However, while the passenger car market as a whole rose, the largest proportion of A-segment sales fell, and it was the only market segment that fell. Whether the A-class car can pick up in the future is an important factor related to whether the passenger car market can maintain growth this year and whether the sales of new energy vehicles can reach a new level.
Although passenger car sales declined sequentially in January, they still increased year-on-year and rose to the second-highest level in the same period in the past five years. Passenger car sales in January were 2.145 million units, up -8.8% month-on-month and 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and the level of the same period in 2019 before the outbreak of the epidemic was significantly narrowed compared with the highest point in 2018 (2.417 million units).
Overall, the double growth of automobile consumption capacity and consumption level in January means that the passenger car market still has the potential to rise in the future. Statistical analysis from Beijing Zhengze Dacheng shows that the market size of passenger cars in January 2022 reached 403.66 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year; the regular passenger car market size index reached 855.9 points, up 64.0 points year-on-year, indicating that the consumption capacity increased significantly. The average market sales price in January was 188,000 yuan, an increase of 0.4 million yuan over the same period last year; the regular passenger car price index was 135.7 points, up 2.9 points year-on-year, marking an increase in consumption levels.
The main momentum for the double growth of passenger car consumption capacity and consumption level comes from the strong demand for low-end cars below 80,000 yuan and high-end cars above 200,000 yuan. Statistics show that sales of low-end vehicles in January were 254,000 units, up 12.6% year-on-year, and sales of high-end vehicles were 804,000 units, up 14.2% year-on-year. It is worth noting that the mid-range car market of 90,000-190,000 yuan is sluggish, with sales of 1.087 million units in January, an increase of -1.1% year-on-year.
The decline in mid-range car sales means that the consumer confidence of car buyers with a certain purchasing power is insufficient, which is reflected in the product structure, which is reflected in the year-on-year decline in A-class passenger car sales. Statistics show that sales of A-class vehicles in January were 1.1067 million units, an increase of -1.8% year-on-year. In stark contrast, A00-class vehicles sold 103,000 units, up 58.1% year-on-year; B-class vehicles sold 563,000 units, up 14.3% year-on-year; and A0-class vehicles, which were once in sluggish demand, reached 212,000 units in January, up 9.3% year-on-year.
Judging from the comparison of January sales data in the past five years, the year-on-year decline in sales of mid-range cars and A-class cars in January this year is not an individual case, but a trend problem. From January 2018 to January 2022, the market share of mid-range vehicles fell from more than 55% to 50.7%. At the same time, the share of A-class passenger car sales fell from 60.4% to 51.6%.
Objectively speaking, the consumer group of mid-range cars and A-class cars is the main driving force supporting the rise of the passenger car market. In January, the sales of high-end cars and low-end cars rose sharply, and the demand of the main force in the market was sluggish, in addition to the objective reasons that the problem of chip shortage has not been effectively solved, it also means that the impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the automobile market is still impossible to ignore the impact of "the current Chinese economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening".
Passenger car sales ushered in a good start in January, although it boosted confidence in the development of the industry, but if the demand for mid-range cars and A-class cars cannot be effectively improved, it will not only drag down the pace of sustained growth of the passenger car market this year, but also become an important factor affecting the sustained rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales.
Therefore, it is recommended that cities that implement car purchase restrictions should be appropriately liberalized to further boost automobile consumption. On the one hand, the competitiveness of the new energy vehicle market dominated by electric vehicles has declined relatively after the subsidy decline, while the demand for the core consumer groups of fuel vehicles has declined, and the momentum of the growth of the automobile market under the dual pressure is decaying. The places where the purchase restrictions are implemented are all cities with strong consumption capacity, and the relaxation of purchase restrictions in these areas is equivalent to stimulating consumption without subsidies. And the liberalization of automobile purchase restrictions is in line with the policy direction of the state to promote the sustained recovery of consumption and promote the smooth flow of domestic circulation.
(Image source: Internet)