Text | Tao Wenbo
Design | microcosm
The crisis begins with conservatism, and vitality comes from change.
According to reliable sources, since February 11, 2022, the new joint venture contract of BMW Brilliance Automobile Co., Ltd. has officially come into effect, the shares held by BMW Brilliance Group in BMW Brilliance have been changed to 75%, and the partner Brilliance China Automotive Holding Co., Ltd. indirectly holds the remaining 25% of the shares, and the contract validity period has been extended to 2040.
AS a result, BMW Brilliance has become the first joint venture car company in China with a foreign equity ratio of more than 50%, which means that the joint venture share ratio restriction policy that has been implemented for more than 20 years has officially withdrawn from the historical stage.
Let's pull back the thinking to nearly thirty years ago, the government and relevant departments in 1994 to protect the local auto industry, to prevent foreign brands from monopolizing the domestic market, in 1994 announced the famous "Auto Industry Policy".
The policy requires that in a specific period of "market for technology", the shareholding ratio of foreign investors in joint venture car companies shall not be higher than 50%, and in addition, the same type of foreign vehicle products cannot establish two or more joint ventures in China.
By current standards, the policy is undoubtedly very severe, it not only firmly holds the strategic dominance of all joint venture brands in our hands, but also strictly limits the domestic market share of first-tier global brands, even if it is as strong as Toyota and Volkswagen, there are only two main factories in the north and south, and there is no other number.
The immature mainland automobile consumer market and the vehicle production and assembly system have therefore been preserved to the greatest extent, which not only leaves enough room for the development of pure independent brands that have mushroomed in the future, but also takes advantage of the long buffer period of more than 20 years to train a group of management talents and technical experts with great long-term vision and professionalism, and completely eliminates the risk of the mainland automobile industry becoming a cheap foundry of European, American and Japanese car companies.
History has no ifs, only wind and thunder, dust and smoke.
Today, China's leafy automotive industry system not only does not need to be guarded by localization policies, but also throws its commercial tentacles around the world on all sides, whether in arrogant and conservative Western Europe or rough and casual South America, the roar of "Huaxia Engine" is everywhere.
In other words, although the "Automobile Industry Policy" is full of strong atmosphere of the times, it is irrefutable and great. Without its careful calculations, there would be no mainland automobile industry today.
However, it is indeed outdated.
The further development of the whole industrial chain, which has been infinitely close to the world's top level, is bound to need to lift the shackles and shackles - the toddler chicks are of course free from the care of their parents, and the raptor that has been fluttering for nine days is ridiculous.
As Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said, "The abolition of the joint venture share ratio restriction is a sign of further opening up, an inevitable result of international development, and the general trend of market liberalization." ”
The excessive control of foreign capital is still of some positive significance at the current stage, but it is very easy to lead to the excessive homogenization of mainstream joint venture products, which is undoubtedly a disaster for a number of "partial door" brands, and the French car that has not seen improvement for many years is a very typical negative case. The initiative to forcibly localize personalized products may have been a good move fifteen years ago, but today it can only be defined by overcorrection.
A pool of stagnant water is lifeless, and the trend of open source drainage is general.
According to the planning of the National Development and Reform Commission, the time node for the opening of the joint venture share ratio will be formulated in accordance with the transitional policy, and it is initially scheduled to be implemented in three phases in 2018, 2020 and 2022, and the restrictions on the foreign ownership ratio of special vehicles and new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles and passenger cars will be gradually abolished.
The reform of the law is still on the way, and the game of the dark tide has already begun. As we all know, in the face of the change in the direction of the policy wind that affects the whole body, the early step is profitable, and the late step is gone.
In addition to BMW Brilliance, which fired the first shot, Stellantis Group also expressed its intention to increase the shareholding ratio of joint ventures in China. The group was formed in January 2021 by the merger of PSA (PSA) And Fiat Chrysler Group in a 50:50 share ratio.
Stellantis recently announced on its official website that if conditions permit, it hopes that its share in the joint venture GAC FCA will increase from the current 50% to 75%.
According to reliable sources, GAC Group and Stellantis have not agreed on the details of the new cooperation, but Stellantis is clear and determined, and there is still hope to achieve the final strategic objectives.
Coincidentally, as early as November 2021, Dongfeng Motor announced that it would transfer 25% of the equity of Dongfeng Yueda Kia to Yueda Group, and then Dongfeng Yueda Kia would be converted into a two-sided shareholding of Yueda Group and South Korean Kia.
In February 2022, Kia and Yueda announced the establishment of a new joint venture and plans to increase its capital by US$900 million to rapidly increase vehicle sales and capacity utilization through expanding investment, introducing new models, developing new energy vehicles, and setting up export bases.
The newly established joint venture no longer has the presence of Dongfeng Group. The withdrawal of Dongfeng means that Dongfeng Yueda Kia has officially become history.
In this way, the general trend of opening up the equity ratio of joint venture car companies has another layer of cruel but extraordinary connotation - the strong hands that are thriving have the confidence to control more discourse, and the role of mixed eating and waiting for death may be more difficult in the days after this.
For strong brands such as BMW, Volkswagen and Geely, the opening of the joint venture share ratio will help foreign investors obtain more free development space, and help further localization and comprehensive quality improvement of their first-line products; for foreign groups with low profits such as Stellantis, the increase in the proportion of holdings will help to increase the richness of their products and leave more opportunities for future survival.
Of course, for the lucrative foreign brands, local governments will also introduce relevant provisions to prevent excessive tilt of capital and market share, and implement a full range of policy protection for similar brands that are purely independent, so we do not have to worry about "out-of-control" imports will wantonly destroy the existing industrial ecological balance.
On the other hand, after the relatively weak but still influential niche brands are improved, they will also form a win-win situation in which foreign investors "fight a war against the water" and state-owned investors "get rid of their baggage", which is undoubtedly more beneficial than harmful for consumers.
Once the copper wall and iron wall, today's shackles, it is undeniable that the "Automobile Industry Policy" has completed its historical mission in the past two decades or so. It is precisely because of its existence that we can spend less money to buy world-class products, while enjoying more comprehensive and convenient after-sales service.
However, since the current situation is already extraordinary, and the new energy forces even have the amazing strength to comprehensively restrain foreign investment, it is advisable to boldly introduce "catfish".
For the Chinese"tumor" of mixed eating and waiting for death, the opening of the stock ratio is undoubtedly a sword of Damocles hanging overhead, which is conducive to the self-digestion and transformation of non-performing assets to a large extent, and is a good medicine to optimize the internal driving force.
On the other hand, under the joint squeeze of the new forces of car manufacturing and Chinese-funded enterprises with a stronger sense of crisis, strong foreign investment will be forced to invest more resources and manpower to introduce more comprehensive competitiveness and technologically leading products to the Chinese market, so that the once widely criticized "old bottles of old wine" and "domestic special supplies" will completely disappear.
The flowing water is not corrupt, and the household center is not beetle. China's auto industry, which is full of awe and respect for the people's hearts and changes, will not lack the courage to embrace the unknown prospects.