This article is from the WeChat public account: Table Appearance (ID: excel-ers), author: He Jinyi, Zhang Ranran, Editor: Fu Xiaoling
The repeated defeats have not weakened Geely's ambition to conquer the new energy field in the slightest.
In the 2020 annual report, it is once again full of confidence: in 2021, the demand for China's passenger car market will continue to recover, and the new "Blue Geely Action Plan" will move towards "full electrification".
In the 2021H1 financial report disclosure, further optimism: the sales performance of the Group's products in the first half of the year was satisfactory, and the new models to be launched in the remainder of this year have also received enthusiastic market feedback.
However, after a quarter, he was punched in the face.
"We express strong dissatisfaction and anger, and hope that the official of Extreme Krypton will pay attention to the voice of users and respond to the concerns of car owners in a timely manner." Not long after the delivery of the new electric model, the Krypton 001, similar user rights protection initiatives continued.
Not to mention the collapse of word of mouth, the follow-up of Extreme Kr 001 can not be delivered as scheduled: some orders originally scheduled to complete production and shipment before January 10, 2022, will be delayed by about a week.
Not only is the consumption side less than expected, but in the capital market, Geely has not been able to stand up.
In the chart below, in the 2021 China passenger car boom cycle, Geely's stock price rose not actively, falling by nearly 50% in the downward cycle.
So, in this round of "chasing dreams" new energy, what kind of story did Geely tell?
(In the previous "Great Wall Soaring Ten Times Code", it was discussed that the stock price fluctuations of automobile companies are determined by three factors: the level of industrial β, the level of enterprise α and the performance of performance, and the theory is still borrowed here.) ）
The "ten times stock" cycle failed, and the new energy business supported expectations
On February 10, 2020, the most severe period of the epidemic, many brokerage institutions invariably paid attention to an announcement by Geely:
Geely is exploring the merger of Geely Automobiles and Volvo Cars AB (Volvo Cars) businesses, and the two companies will become a global group after the completion of the restructuring to meet future challenges.
Four months later, Geely announced the opening of the "Technology Geely 4.0 Era" and entered the stage of comprehensive structuring and car building.
So, what does it mean that these two actions are linked? Let's cut back to the 3.0 era.
At that time, after the acquisition of Volvo, Geely took advantage of the integration of resources of its brother brands - the former Volvo design vice president Peter Hobley personally designed, Volvo engineers participated in the process, etc., and launched a Boyue SUV in March 2016.
After the higher price of Boyue was listed, it became a hit.
The success of the Boyue series has driven the improvement of Geely's market share and profitability. This was transmitted to the stock price, which rose nearly 10 times in 2016-2017.
Back to this 4.0, as far as the merger with Volvo is concerned, the two are equivalent to changing from brothers to husband and wife, resources from "clear accounting" to full sharing, research and development and output strength or will be further advanced.
At the same time, the data shows that one of the foundations of comprehensive architecture car manufacturing is the CMA modular architecture system. The models built based on the CMA architecture have been verified on the high-end brand Lynk & Co - the average selling price and sales volume have performed well.
That is to say, once the merger and comprehensive framework of the car landing, geely in the 4.0 era will have stronger profitability than the 3.0 period.
For the market, another opportunity for Geely ten times the stock is appropriate, and it is not strange to be eager to try.
However, although this is good, it is only past experience after all, and most institutions at that time were more concerned about Geely's new round of product cycle than this.
For example, China Merchants Securities rated Geely as buy, one of the bases is that "the pull effect of the company's new car is not yet complete."
So, what is the real situation?
Taking the medium and high-priced model "Geely ICON" delivered in February as an example, it opened the booking on the official website only 15 minutes, the 2020 limited edition models were sold out, the pre-sale order exceeded 30,000 in 37 days, and the snappers were mostly young people (average age 26 years old).
Another high-priced model, the Lynk & Co 05, was listed for more than a month and received more than 17,000 orders.
Such a predetermined heat reveals the potential of the explosion.
Not only fuel vehicles, in the field of new energy, Geely also has an exciting performance.
The newly released pure electric coupe concept car Lynk & Co ZERO concept was unanimously recognized by the market:
"This time Lynk & Co is really not deceiving people with models and PPT, although it is called 'concept car', but ZERO concept is actually very highly completed."
In this way, under the market's high α income expectations for enterprises, Geely's PE valuation rushed to a high point in January 2021.
But the highlight of the valuation ushered in a sunny thunderbolt - the merger plan with Volvo "aborted".
As for the reasons for the failure, the official explanation said: "After evaluating the different options for realizing value, we came to the conclusion that the model of cooperation between two independent companies is the best way to ensure sustained growth." ”
To make matters worse, the annual report disclosure shows that Geely's profit level in 2020 has fallen sharply again, and the performance expectations have fallen short.
But what is puzzling is that Geely's sales in 2020 have increased significantly.
Why are there signs of performance repair, but no results? Let's disassemble the categories of sales to see.
The data shows that most of the new products, including the high-priced "Geely ICON" and "Lynk & Co 05", have quickly fallen sharply after being listed and delivered, and the explosive expectations have not landed.
Among the old products, the sales of the Lynk & Co series have recovered brightly. In the chart below, sales growth has continued to rise since April 2020.
However, the disclosure of information shows that the surge in sales of the series is the result of competitive pressure and large terminal discounts. For example, in the second half of 2020, its preferential margin exceeded 10,000 yuan.
The situation is similar to the main model Boyue - although itself has not reduced the price, but launched a low-price version of the Boyue million model, affecting the product transaction price of the series and compressing profit margins.
The explosive new products with high prices and high gross profits have not landed as scheduled, and the result of the superimposed "price for volume" of the old products is the decline in the profitability of the enterprise. According to the data, the net profit of 2020H2 Lynk & Co Bicycle was 0.32 million yuan, a decrease of 0.02 million yuan from the previous month.
And "walking" the market for a while, the performance is such a result, investors inevitably become cautious, valuation fell.
But Geely itself does not think so, and it threatened in the 2020 annual report conference call that 2021 is expected to usher in new growth like the past 2016 and 2017.
The bottom line of what it says can also be found in the 2020 annual report: in 2021, China's passenger car market demand will continue to recover, and the new "Blue Geely Action Plan" will move towards "full electrification".
That is to say, Geely still holds the bottom card of new energy and has not turned over. This also makes the market optimistic about it, and the valuation multiple remains around 30.
So, can the new energy card face be as desired?
Extreme Kr 001 "high open low go", the vision is disillusioned
In 2021, when the entire electric vehicle industry was "hot" again, foreign investment banks on Wall Street began to circulate similar views like "Extreme Kr 001 supported Geely's stock price for a day".
For example, in Citibank's evaluation, Extreme Kr 001 became the existence of a punch to Tesla:
The Kr 001 outperforms the Model 3 in size and performance, with a slightly higher unit price; if the Model can sell 25,000 units in March, it is expected that the Kr 001 should achieve at least more than half of this level of sales.
Bank of America Securities also raised Geely's price target based on the value of Extreme Kr, upgrading it to Buy.
So, why does Extreme Kr 001 make the market so "crazy"? Just look at the "excitement" on the consumer side.
In April, after Geely Krypton 001 (the above-mentioned Lynk & Co ZERO concept) was listed and opened for pre-order, the search index climbed rapidly. Under the hot market attention, in just two months, its 2021 deliverable orders were all sold out.
And the reason why there is such a heat is not difficult to understand.
After all, in the pricing range of 28.1-360,000 yuan of extreme kryptonian 001, only Tesla Model 3, BYDHan EV and Weilai ES6 are similar, which belongs to the situation of lack of supply.
Under the "pursuit" of these consumers who are not bad money, in the order of Extreme Kr 001, the high unit price and high selection characteristics are obvious:
For example, the proportion of the top YOU version is 40%, the proportion of Yamaha premium audio is 80%, the proportion of high-performance air suspension is 61%, and the proportion of intelligent induction automatic doors is 44%.
As a result, the average order price of Extreme Kr 001 was pushed up to 335,000 yuan.
This has greatly increased Geely's ambitions, saying: "Extreme Kr will launch six new models in the next three years, aiming to sell 650,000 vehicles per year by 2025, entering the top three in the high-end electric vehicle market." ”
At that moment, almost everyone achieved what they wanted.
At this point, under the expectation of high corporate α level, Geely's PE valuation has increased rapidly since May.
At its peak, however, the illusion was shattered again.
The cause of the matter is that at the end of June, some users broke the standard configuration of the extreme Kr 001 WE version of the model that did not match the publicity, according to its description: "When the official listing was promoted, the post-privacy glass, 800V electronic and electrical architecture, and 360KW extreme charge were standard, but in fact, it was necessary to choose another money." ”
Then, someone found that the so-called full version of the Krypton 001 YOU version, the EC light-sensitive canopy configuration has also become optional, and the price is as high as 10,000 yuan.
And the standard change paid option is not finished, there are many car owners reported that in the configuration page of the Extreme Kr 001 model, the motor supplier changed from Nidec to Nidec and Vieri Motors.
Successive riotous operations have completely angered the pre-booked car owners, and the complaints about Extreme Kr 001 have fermented on the social platform, and many car owners have flocked to the Extreme Kr APP community to unsubscribe from the transfer.
When Geely is deeply involved in controversy, its competition has made great progress in the field of new energy.
For example, Great Wall Motor's electric vehicle brand Euler, after June 2021, the monthly sales are basically stable at more than 10,000; BYD's new energy model sales, 2021Q3 accounted for 88.8% of the total sales.
Under the fierce comparison of performance, the choice of the market will inevitably be affected. In the chart below, in the second half of the boom trend, Geely's rebound was the lowest.
Under the pressure of the "cusp of the storm", in mid-July, An Conghui, CEO of Extreme Kr, sent an apology letter in the official community of Extreme Kr, responding to the problem of reducing allocations and increasing prices. The thrust of the letter can be summed up in two points:
1. The optional configuration of extreme krypton is reopened, and the cost is borne by extreme krypton;
2. The user who locks the single in advance cannot enjoy the national supplement due to the delay in delivery, and the difference is borne by The Krypton.
This has appeased car owners to a certain extent, and many "prospective owners" said: "The first car of the new brand will more or less have problems in a certain link, as long as the brand has a heart, we are willing to give the new brand more opportunities."
Relying on the "banknote ability" to cut meat, Extreme Kr calmed down the storm, and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the delivery was achieved without any danger.
On October 23, the first batch of 199 car owners came to Ningbo Hangzhou Bay Extreme Kr Smart Factory to accept and deliver, and guests and hosts gathered together.
This kind of happy harmony makes everyone once again think that Geely is going to "turn against the wind". But the truth is that within 3 days, the owners began to "spray" to the extreme kryptonian 001.
On the one hand, it is a complaint and rights protection of the quality problems of the delivered vehicles, which can be summarized as follows:
The optional configuration of EC light-sensitive sky curtain publicity is inconsistent with the actual situation; complaints about the suspicion of misleading seat materials; and quality problems such as system caton, navigation errors, and sound disappearance have been exposed.
On the other hand, there is dissatisfaction with the delay in delivery.
Geely officials said: In the face of chip shortages, EC canopy, Viebak air suspension and other missing parts, orders at the end of 2021 and early 2022, there are some delays in delivery.
Word of mouth collapsed, production capacity was weak, and the explosive cash of Extreme Kr 001 was like chicken ribs.
At the same time, Geely's overall performance has also widened. In the chart below, from July to November 2021, the overall sales growth rate continued to be negative.
The new energy explosion is not real, the income expectations of the company's α are disillusioned, and then the downturn in the superimposed prosperity, under the "three kills", Geely fell the most in the collective decline at this stage, with a decline of 50%.
However, this is not the end, after all, The Extreme Kr 001 is still climbing its production capacity. After that, whether Geely's ambitions can be sustained depends on the subsequent landing.
brief summary
The electrification transformation of the automotive industry has never been a 100-meter sprint, but a marathon race.
The new forces in front of them have basically experienced several rounds of the hellish model test of "from expectation to cash" of products, and have temporarily become the darlings of public opinion and capital. In contrast, the slightly sluggish traditional car companies will only be more difficult to "run out" on the basis of historical baggage.
Under the choice of consumers and the market, if the "promise" promised cannot be fulfilled, no matter how lively the market is in the early stage of "waving the flag and cheering", it will be instantly rational in the end.