The Ningde era is in the stage of "being targeted by wolves", and the power exchange mode may be a good "transition plan".
The power battery market, Ningde era is currently the well-deserved first. According to the statistics of relevant authoritative institutions, the total installed capacity of CATL in 2021 reached 96.7GWh, winning the championship for five consecutive years, and the market share reached 32.6%, which was 12.3 percentage points higher than the market share of LG Energy in second place.
But the tigers are also afraid of wolves, and the future growth path of the Ningde era may not be as smooth as before.
For example, the aforementioned LG Energy, the second largest installed capacity in the world, has always been the most important competitor in the Ningde era. The two battery companies, SK On and Samsung SDI, which also belong to South Korea, are also quite powerful competitors. Although the current global market share of these Korean battery companies is not as good as that of the Ningde era, considering that the installed capacity of the Ningde era mainly contributes to the Chinese market, and from the perspective of the international market, the competitiveness of these Korean battery manufacturers does not seem to be lost to the Ningde era, or even overpowered.
In addition, the Panasonic Group from Japan, with its deeply bound battery business with Tesla, also occupies a market share of 12.2% of the global installed power battery. And from the perspective of technology, its battery cell energy density is currently the highest in the world, and the 4680 battery jointly developed with Tesla has attracted much attention, and will also begin to expand the line this year, and the product energy efficiency advantage is obvious.
There are also many players in China who are eyeing the Ningde era, and BYD, which has become famous with blade batteries, has also reached 26.3GWh in 2021, an increase of 167.70% year-on-year, rising to the 4th in the world. In addition, guoxuan hi-tech, vision power, Sino-new aviation, hive energy four domestic power battery manufacturers, in the past year have achieved different degrees of year-on-year growth, driving on the fast track of high-speed growth.
As the global wave of electrification continues to sweep, the penetration rate of new energy products in the entire market is gradually rising, and the power battery industry is obviously immeasurable. But the more the industry can see the future potential, the more fierce the competition, if the Ningde era in the future is still only relying on the battery business, the risk of being replaced, and the possibility of being eaten by other manufacturers is too large.
Therefore, at this stage of the Ningde era, it is actually urgent to carry out new businesses to avoid a single profit model. With the trend of new energy supplement innovation, a few days ago, NINGDE Times released the chocolate replacement brand EVOGO, which proudly adapted to the models developed by 80% of the pure electric platforms that have been listed in the world and will be listed in the next 3 years, and transformed into a battery operator in one fell swoop, which sounds like a good idea.
If the "chocolate" power exchange model is successful, the space to help the Ningde era profit is still quite considerable, the future is no longer a simple battery supply trading model, but can directly eat the price difference and service fee of the valley peak of electricity, which can be simply understood as a functional substitute for gas stations in the new energy era, and the profit direction and model are more abundant than gas stations.
But the question is, will this model be successful?
First of all, from a technical point of view, it is not too difficult to change the power. The AGV intelligent logistics vehicle using the power exchange mode has been very mature in recent years. The Ningde era is not the first person in the passenger car replacement model, and weilai and BAIC BJEV in the industry have deployed models for power station replacement.
But the difficulty is that if the passenger car market wants to popularize the power exchange model, not to mention who will support the cost of a large number of power exchange stations, how to establish a unified standard for power exchange, there is no precedent in the industry that has solved this problem. Because this standard includes the appearance size of the battery pack, the current and voltage parameters of the battery, the energy tube of the battery, the condition monitoring and so on.
The installed capacity market share of the Ningde era is indeed large enough, many batteries are produced in the Ningde era, but the battery technical standards used by each family are developed by the participation of car companies, and the Ningde era also needs to be produced according to the needs of customers. Simply put, unless all new energy manufacturers use the same PACK, the standard cannot be unified at all. Because of this, even if WEILAI has rolled out more than 700 substations in China, it has never mentioned the realization of cross-brand power exchange services. This is also a serious problem that the leading enterprise of power battery Ningde era has to face.
In addition, as one of the most core components of electric vehicles, major car companies in the battery research and innovation do not fully count on battery companies, in recent years, the development of many innovative technologies, including energy density, space utilization and safety. And if you choose to join the Ningde era after the power exchange system, not only the battery to choose the Ningde era, the entire three-electricity system will be bound by "chocolate". In the past, the supplier developed the battery according to the requirements of the main engine factory, and now in turn, the main engine factory needs to develop the vehicle according to the requirements of the supplier, and whether the main engine factory can accept the conversion of "identity" is also an unavoidable problem.
At the same time, the power battery as the core component of the individual car, but also the major car companies competition and publicity of the key content, its cost accounted for almost 40% of the whole vehicle, if the car companies give up the self-developed battery standards, instead of using the Ningde era to develop the general battery standards, it will inevitably lose a large part of the profit margins. It can be seen how difficult it is to get different brands to reach an agreement to achieve cross-brand power exchange.
Finally, imagine that in case the Ningde era really realizes that this standard battery block can be adapted to most new energy vehicles on the market, consumers must be the beneficiaries. After all, the way of replenishment is more convenient, it is likely that a few kilometers on a power station, the power change is really as convenient as refueling, which is indeed a product to solve the pain points of new energy vehicles.
But in reality? In the short term, I am afraid that it can only be bearish, because this is not in line with the current development route of car companies on the power battery process, and more importantly, it is not in line with the interests of most car companies.
From another point of view, the ningde era released a power exchange model, but it is more like a gimmick used to stimulate stock prices after the stock price has fallen sharply.
In the first trading week after the Spring Festival, the total market value of the Ningde era plunged wildly, and in a week's time, the market value shrank by nearly 270 billion yuan, compared with the highest price of 692 yuan in the Ningde era in the previous two months, it fell by nearly 30%, for a time, the number of people who sang the decline of Ning Wang on the Internet was innumerable. However, on the next Monday after the chocolate exchange conference, the stock price of the Ningde era had a big recovery after the opening, and the stock price returned to 500 yuan.
Therefore, whether the power replacement plan in the Ningde era can subvert the energy replenishment model of the new energy market, there are still many unknown factors, and it is difficult for us to make up our minds for the time being. But as a new story of positive stock prices, it seems to be a fruitful "transition plan".
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