Car stuff (public number: chedongxi)
Author | Haohan
Edited by | Xiaohan
The location of Tesla's second domestic factory is once again a mystery.
Just yesterday, Tesla said that the news about the location of its second domestic factory in Shenyang Dadong District was untrue, and said that the location of Tesla's second domestic factory has not yet been determined.
After a busy weekend, the location of Tesla's second domestic factory once again left suspense.
Previously, in addition to Shenyang City, there are Qingdao, Guangzhou, Yibin, Xi'an and other cities have been rumored with Tesla to build factories "gossip", and in the government work plan of these cities in the past two years, the words of the new energy automobile industry are also frequent.
With the completion and operation of the Shanghai factory, it has brought tax dividends, employment dividends and sustainable development dividends to the surrounding areas. Therefore, the investment departments of many cities across the country want to invite Tesla to settle in and help the city and even the entire province complete industrial upgrading and transformation and sustainable development.
So, Tesla has previously had "scandals" with which cities in China? What are the advantages of these cities that can attract Tesla to settle down?
In this regard, Chedongxi summarized the six cities in China that had previously reported "scandals" with Tesla, and analyzed the possibility of Tesla's new factory site selection from the geographical location, policy conditions and industrial structure in the order from north to south and from east to west.
First, Shenyang has been officially denied that the surrounding industries are supporting advantages
On February 12 this year, the "Liaoning Release" public account pushed an article entitled "Shenyang Dadong District "Five Grasps" and Strive to Be the Leader of Revitalization and Development", in which there was such a sentence: "Combined with the urban renewal of the Wenguan area, open up the industrial development space, and lay the foundation for the landing of major new energy vehicle projects such as Tesla." ”
Many media have speculated that Tesla's second domestic factory may be landing in Shenyang Dadong District. However, Tesla said that this news is untrue, and the "Liaoning Release" public account also immediately deleted this article.
But is Shenyang, which has a number of vehicle production plants, really out of the competition for the location of Tesla's second domestic factory?
▲Screenshot of "Liaoning Release" public account (now deleted)
Compared with other cities, Shenyang's biggest advantage in vehicle manufacturing is that it has a wealth of automobile industry supporting enterprises and a large number of upstream and downstream enterprises and talents, such as BMW Brilliance, Brilliance Automobile, SAIC-GM and many other car companies have their own vehicle production plants in Shenyang or Liaoning Province, and the corresponding number of vehicle parts suppliers is also relatively large.
In addition, Jilin Province, the next province of Liaoning Province, is also a major province in the mainland automobile manufacturing industry, and it is also the base camp of FAW, the "big brother" of domestic automobiles, and Liaoning Province also has a number of vehicle manufacturing plants and complete upstream and downstream supporting enterprises.
▲BMW Brilliance Shenyang Dadong factory
But for Tesla, according to the current distribution of its suppliers in China, there are less than 5 direct or indirect suppliers in Liaoning Province and even the entire three northeastern provinces, accounting for only about 2% of the total number of domestic suppliers. Therefore, the existing auto parts suppliers in Shenyang and even the three northeastern provinces cannot attract Tesla to build factories here.
However, compared with the developed cities in the central and eastern parts of the mainland, the cost of land use in Shenyang is relatively lower, which is a good location factor for Tesla, which adopts "production to reduce costs", and for Musk, who is "meticulous".
It is worth mentioning that Tesla also denied the previous rumors with Shanghai before announcing the first overseas factory landing in Shanghai in 2018.
Therefore, whether Shenyang is really out of the game may only be known at the moment of official announcement.
Second, Qingdao's first rejection The possibility still exists?
Before the scandal between Shenyang and Tesla was reported and rejected, there was also a city with the same situation last year - Qingdao City.
At the beginning of November last year, some media claimed that the relevant departments of Qingdao City had communicated with Tesla China senior management, and Tesla's second factory would be located in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, which caused heated discussion in the industry for a time. But then Tao Lin, tesla's vice president of external affairs, posted on Weibo: "Respectfully, the current information on the Internet about the location of Tesla's second factory is not true." ”
▲Tao Lin, vice president of external affairs of Tesla
Although Qingdao is the first of many candidate cities to be denied by Tesla, is it really impossible?
Qingdao is located in the economically developed area in the eastern part of the mainland, and the city's GDP ranks among the top in the province and even the whole country. Although Qingdao is not the traditional auto industry town in the mainland, it still has FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Chery Automobile and other vehicle production plants, and Tesla's only opponent in sales, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, is produced in Qingdao.
▲Exterior view of SAIC-GM-Wuling Qingdao Branch
For Tesla, although Qingdao also has relatively rich experience in upstream and downstream supporting industries and automobile production, the regional production capacity and warehousing and logistics pressure that tend to be relatively saturated may become one of the factors that "dissuade" Tesla.
According to data from Qingdao municipal government departments, in 2020, Qingdao's vehicle production will be close to 1.2 million vehicles, and the output will exceed 1 million for three consecutive years. At present, the annual production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai factory is close to 500,000 vehicles, and if Tesla establishes a second factory in Qingdao, Qingdao's annual vehicle production will be close to or exceed 2 million.
Interestingly, if Tesla ultimately chooses to invest in Qingdao, then in the future, Tesla Model 3, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Tesla Model Y, the three leading models in global passenger car sales, will be produced in the same city.
In addition, the Chinese market as Tesla's largest market in the world, if the Shanghai factory continues to serve as Tesla's production base for exports to the world in the future, then the responsibility of the second factory in China is likely to "manage enough" the Chinese market.
Third, suppliers piled into pieces of the map convenient will choose Ningbo Hangzhou Bay?
If Tesla wants to "figure convenience", Ningbo Hangzhou Bay may become the first choice.
The reason why it is called "Tu Convenient" is because Ningbo has about 16 Tesla suppliers, accounting for 9% of the total number of suppliers in the country, while there are more than 30 Tesla direct or indirect suppliers in the entire Zhejiang Province, accounting for 20% of the number of suppliers in the country. If you add the neighboring province of Jiangsu Province, then the number of Tesla's direct or indirect suppliers located in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces will exceed 80, close to 50% of the total number of suppliers in the country.
▲Distribution map of domestic direct and indirect supply Tesla listed enterprises (data source network)
Therefore, for Tesla, building its own factory among a group of suppliers may be the most cost-effective way to save transportation costs, and the location relationship with local suppliers can be called "the stars are holding the moon".
Of course, tesla's second factory landing in Ningbo Hangzhou Bay is not just groundless speculation, Tesla and Ningbo Hangzhou Bay New Area have also been rumored before the "gossip".
Earlier, some netizens exposed a screenshot of the reply of the Ningbo Hangzhou Bay Investment cooperation bureau, which read: "Tesla as a very successful new energy automobile company, the new district has always been concerned. Tesla's future development of the new area will also continue to pay attention. Although the entire paragraph does not mention factory construction and other matters, it may indicate that Ningbo Hangzhou Bay New Area has participated in the competition for the location of Tesla's second domestic factory.
▲Ningbo Hangzhou Bay Investment Cooperation (Source Network)
In addition to many suppliers here, Ningbo and Shanghai belong to the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone, and tesla's experience accumulated in the Shanghai factory may be transferred to the Hangzhou Bay New Area of Ningbo to help Tesla complete the rapid production of "zero water and soil".
Fourth, Guangzhou Nansha once lost to Shanghai Lingang Second Factory or competed again
In 2021, Tesla's sales in Shanghai ranked first in the country, as high as 51818 vehicles, followed by Shenzhen City, with sales of 24225 vehicles, and Guangzhou Sales also reached 13417 vehicles. Overall, Tesla's sales in Guangdong Province also ranked first in the domestic echelon.
Therefore, if the location of Tesla's second domestic factory is estimated according to the level of market share, the probability of Guangdong Province winning is relatively large.
Moreover, before Tesla announced in 2018 that its first overseas factory landed in Shanghai, nansha district of Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, had also been infinitely close to Tesla.
Earlier, an insider from the Nansha District Government of Guangzhou City revealed to the media at the time: "Tesla is not only talking to Shanghai but also talking to Guangzhou, who gives more favorable conditions, choose where." Moreover, Caixin also broke the news at the time that in order to drag Tesla, Nansha District of Guangzhou City also specially prepared a corresponding plan, and named it "T Plan", "T" or referring to Tesla.
A person familiar with the investment promotion affairs in Nansha District revealed to the media at the time that the reason why Tesla abandoned Guangzhou Nansha instead of Choosing Shanghai Lingang is because the electric vehicle factory that Nansha District hopes to introduce will be located in whole or in part in the local R&D, operation and other departments, but Tesla prefers to set up a production plant in China rather than an independent research and development part.
▲Guangzhou Nansha Port
But today, Tesla's development plan in China has not only met the production needs, if Tesla completed the R & D innovation center and data center in Shanghai, and has begun to prepare to build a design center, it can be seen that Tesla's layout in China should gradually change from Made in China to Made in China + Created in China.
Moreover, the entry-level model that has been rumored for a long time and recognized by Musk may be designed and manufactured by tesla's China team.
Therefore, at this point in time, Tesla's development plan in China coincides with the wishes of Nansha District of Guangzhou at that time, so the "T Plan" prepared by Nansha District of Guangzhou May be taken out and continued to be used this time.
Fifth, the network rumors that Tesla will use blade batteries The possibility of building a factory in Xi'an has increased
Recently, in addition to the location of Tesla's second factory on the Internet, the rumor that Tesla will use BYD's blade battery has also gone viral on the Internet.
Some sources broke the news that Tesla will use BYD's single model C112F blade battery in the future, and the installed volume may reach 204,000 units / year, and it is possible to officially mass-produce delivery in the second quarter of this year.
At the same time, Che Dongxi also found a document from the website of the General Office of the Xi'an Municipal People's Government with the document number [2021] No. 46, entitled "Implementation Opinions of the General Office of the Xi'an Municipal People's Government on Accelerating the High-quality Development of the New Energy Automobile Industry".
In the second subparagraph of the fourth subtitle of the document, there was such a passage. "Bigger and stronger power battery industry." Promote bydir, Samsung Ring New and other enterprises to continue to increase the volume and increase production and capacity, accelerate the construction of new power batteries such as BYD blades, BAIC Shuangyuan and other high-end power battery projects, and strive to 2025, the city's automotive power batteries form a supporting Xi'an, supply the whole country, production and marketing scale in the forefront of the country development pattern. (Responsible units: Xixian New Area, High-tech Zone, Economic Development Zone Management Committee; cooperating units: Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, Municipal Investment Bureau, Municipal Development and Reform Commission)"
▲Screenshot of the website of the General Office of the Xi'an Municipal People's Government
This shows that Xi'an has become a new production base for BYD blade batteries after the Bishan District of Chongqing, and the annual production capacity of BYD blade batteries will continue to rise.
If the rumor that Tesla will use BYD blade batteries is confirmed, then Tesla may also invest in Xi'an to build a factory.
Imagine, if Tesla chooses to build a factory in Xi'an and use blade batteries from BYD, then the production capacity of the Xi'an factory may be completely independent of the production capacity of the Shanghai factory, and the Blade Battery Tesla models produced by Xi'an may be mainly sold in China, while the Tesla models equipped with Ningde era batteries produced by the Shanghai factory may only be exported.
After all, a company as large as Tesla certainly doesn't want to put key components in key markets in one "basket."
However, Xi'an is not a gathering place for the mainland's automobile industry, so overall, Tesla is less likely to build a factory here.
Sixth, Ningde layout 200Gwh production capacity Yibin or into the optimal choice
Then, if the news that "Tesla will use BYD blade batteries" is not true, the Ningde era is still tesla's largest battery supplier in China. Therefore, if Tesla wants to build a second factory in China and double the annual production capacity of domestic vehicles, the battery production capacity of the Ningde era must also keep up.
Looking at the investment and construction of factories in many places in China in the Ningde era, Yibin City in Sichuan Province must be the most eye-catching one, and Tesla may also follow here.
Since 2019, CATL has begun to invest in Yibin City, and the total investment has exceeded 30 billion yuan. Up to now, the production capacity of The Yibin production base of CATL is about 100GWh, which has exceeded the estimated production capacity of the Shanghai Lingang production base of the CATL era.
▲Sichuan Times Phase I Project
At the end of last year, CATL announced that it would invest in the construction of a new power battery manufacturing base in Yibin, and the investment amount would reach 24 billion yuan.
It is reported that the future production capacity of The Yibin production base of the Ningde era is expected to reach 200GWh. At present, there are only car companies with small annual installed batteries such as Kaiyi Automobile and Chery Automobile near Yibin City, and the Ningde era has laid out such a large production base in Yibin, which cannot help but make people wonder whether this is to pave the way for Tesla's second domestic factory in advance.
In addition to the Ningde era, Tianyi Lithium, Guangyuan Lithium Battery, Yibin Lithium Treasure and other upstream and downstream enterprises of lithium batteries are piled up in Yibin to build factories, Yibin has formed a complete industrial chain of raw materials, battery materials, lithium batteries, application products, and recycling.
And Che Dongxi learned from the official website of Yibin Municipal Government that Yibin City, as the economic sub-center of Sichuan Province, and is the first city in Sichuan Province to have three types of traditional passenger car production qualifications of cars, SUVs and MPVs, new energy vehicles will become the main direction and important support for the industrial transformation of Yibin City, and Che dongxi also retrieved words such as "new energy vehicles" and "lithium batteries" from the official website of Yibin Municipal Government. The secretary of the Yibin Municipal Party Committee and the local leadership team have carried out special discussions and field visits to the new energy automobile industry and the lithium battery industry for many times.
Up to now, Yibin City has established an automobile industrial park in Sanjiang New Area within its jurisdiction, and has landed 4 vehicle enterprises such as Geely Automobile, Kaiyi Automobile, Chery New Energy Vehicle, and dozens of core enterprises and auto parts enterprises of new energy vehicles and three electric vehicles.
From the perspective of geographical location conditions, Yibin is at the confluence of the three rivers, hydropower resources are abundant, and the cost of electricity for production bases will be relatively lower. For example, the eastern economic zone south of the Yangtze River on the mainland belongs to the destination area of the national "West-to-East Power Transmission" project, and the Tesla Gigafactory, such a large factory, may have a certain pressure on the local power grid, and production capacity may be affected.
Moreover, ningde times also told the media that its overseas customers will include whether to use green electricity into supplier assessment standards.
From the perspective of transportation conditions, Yibin is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, compared with Wuhan and other midstream cities, inland river navigation conditions are not dominant. According to the tonnage of the ro-ro ship used in the section of the transport car in Yibin, if the average weight of each Tesla car is estimated, a ro-ro ship with a tonnage of about 1200 tons can only transport 600 Teslas one way, which is more different from the transportation capacity of the ocean-going ro-ro ship.
▲The main scale of the standard ship type of the Yangtze River trunk line crossing the gate ro-ro cargo ship (Source: Yangtze River Navigation Administration)
Although water transport is not dominant, railway transport is Yibin's biggest advantage.
Near Yibin City, there is a direct train for direct rail freight to Europe - Rong-Europe Express, which starts from Chengdu Qingbaijiang Container Center Station and can go directly to many cities in eastern and central Europe, and the transportation time is about half a month, which will far exceed the speed of water transportation from Shanghai factory to Europe.
For Tesla, which currently relies only on water transport to complete intercontinental transportation, the climatic conditions faced by ocean freight are more complex, so there are many variables in the delivery time of vehicles. This China-Europe freight train, which can directly connect many cities in Asia and Europe, may become an important location condition for Tesla to choose Yibin and even build factories in Sichuan and Chongqing.
For Yibin City, with strong government support, full investment by enterprises and excellent location conditions, it may be a good location for Tesla's second factory in China.
Conclusion: The location of Tesla's new factory is still to be officially announced
The above is the car from the historical factors, policy conditions, geographical location and other aspects of the analysis of the domestic 6 cities that have been "scandalous" with Tesla, of course, in addition to these six cities, there are still many cities in China that may become the site of Tesla's second domestic factory.
Therefore, where Tesla will build a new factory can only be settled when the local government and Tesla officially announce it, after all, Musk is not a person who plays cards according to common sense.
Although it is not possible to accurately predict the location of Tesla's new factory, it is certain that the Chinese market has become one of Tesla's indispensable markets in the world, and continuous investment in China will become the top priority of Tesla's future development.