From the world to China, the competition theme of the battery market is "scale", and the scale can be king.
Author 丨Zice
Edited by 丨 Dahua
Produced 丨 Automan Media
Unlike the data of the whole vehicle, the global data of power batteries does not have an authoritative statistical agency. South Korean market research institute SNE Research data is more cited in the industry, in the absence of authoritative data sources, "Automan" also uses its data analysis.
After the Spring Festival, according to SNE statistics, the global power battery new energy vehicle use in 2021 is 296.8GWh, compared with 146.8GWh in 2020, doubled.
Not only the actual production, but also the expansion that is expected to last for 8-10 years has rapidly raised the price of upstream resources (especially related metals).
1
Sit in rows and divide the fruits
The top ten suppliers in the world are sorted by supply (GWh), and are still Ningde Era (96.7), LG New Energy (60.2), Panasonic (36.1), Fordy Battery (i.e. BYD Battery 26.3), SKI (16.7), Samsung SDI (13.2), Zhongxin Aviation (i.e. AVIC Lithium Battery 7.9), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (6.4), Envision Power (4.2), Hive Energy (3.1).
The total market share of the top ten suppliers is 91.2%, and the market concentration is already very high.
In 2021, it is still a year of sustained high growth in the power battery industry, and many fledgling battery companies have begun to seek IPOs.
LG New Energy, which was listed in January 2022, had a market capitalization of 624 billion yuan on the day of listing, which was the largest IPO in the history of the Korean capital market, and the market value of the parent company LG doubled. The market calls it the Korean version of "King Ning".
Among the top ten suppliers in China, Fordi Technology, China New Aviation, Hive Energy and Ruipu Energy have not yet been listed. At present, Hive Energy is conducting "listing counseling", and China New Ventures has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
In 2023, Fordy Technology should also be "very close" to going public. In this way, Ruipu Energy, which has just entered the top ten, has become an outlier. The latter may now be more focused on the expansion of its size and customer base.
If you look at it from a country perspective, 2021 continues the trend of the previous decade, that is, Chinese battery companies cannibalize the market share of Japan and South Korea, and the first decade of this century is the territory of Korean companies grabbing Japanese companies. In the whole process, European and American companies disappeared.
The rapid recovery of the battery market in 2021 is also largely due to Chinese companies. Compared with 2020, the rapid growth of Chinese enterprises, in addition to a bit of the long-term power of the Japanese shadow, the growth rate of several other major Chinese enterprises has exceeded 100%, including the Ningde era (168%) which is already a giant. The most rapid of these was Hive Energy, which grew by 431% (due to the low base).
Panasonic grew by 34%, which is not enough in the face of opponents with 3 figures; LG increased by 76%, Samsung SDI increased by 56%, ski increased by 108%, showing a three-step ladder.
This is consistent with the trend of China's new energy vehicle market growth.
2
The main engine factory to dominate
Battery suppliers in the front of the shipment list have stable and excellent market performance of the MAIN ENGINE customers.
SNE expects Tesla's global battery demand to be as high as 88GWh in 2022; in addition, Volkswagen 51GWh, Renault-Nissan 26GWh, Hyundai-Kia 23GWh, Strandtis 20GWh, BMW 13GWh, Mercedes-Benz 11GWh, Geely 11GWh.
This data is strange, because in 2021, bydir, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Great Wall, GAC Passenger Cars, SAIC Passenger Cars and "Wei Xiaoli" will use more than 11GWh of batteries. If only the market other than China is counted, Geely is very abrupt; if there is no Chinese market, Tesla's battery usage cannot be so high.
In recent days, Tesla's "gossip" with battery suppliers has been flying all over the place. According to sources, BYD's battery business supplier Fordy, which ISD is divesting, has more than 30 external customers (including commercial vehicles, some of which are trial production trials) and signed a blade battery supply agreement with Tesla for 204,000 vehicles. This claim has not been substantiated by the two parties.
As we all know, LG is looking at the gap between Panasonic and Tesla, and has become the latter's supplier in China. CATL, as the second supply in China, has become one of the Tesla suppliers. In 2021, Tesla is interested in expanding the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP), and the CATL era began to get more orders.
If Fordy comes to power, history could repeat itself. But in any case, it is impossible for the Verdy battery to get on the car in March, because the BMS hardware and software modifications cannot be completed within a month or two.
Tesla, as the head electric vehicle company, has exemplary significance - that is, to always ensure the safety of its supply chain, not to let any supplier dominate, and evolve into a condescending bargaining power.
Tesla claims that Shanghai's production capacity will reach 1 million units in 2022, so it must reintroduce new suppliers, even if it brings the trouble of multiple battery technologies in parallel. The advantage is also to form a technical isolation, so as not to occur in general, modern new energy products, due to LG battery defects "full pot end" problem.
LG's growth in 2021 will benefit from the growth of Tesla, Volkswagen ID. series and Ford Mustang Mach-E; SKI relies on the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Kia Niro EV series; Samsung SDI relies on the Fiat 500 and Jeep Wrangler PHEV, BMW iX.
Toyota still chose Panasonic as the only battery supplier, and the two formed a joint venture; Honda chose CATL and Panasonic as suppliers. However, Toyota and Honda's EV business is still in the low-speed stage and has not yet been launched on a large scale, so Panasonic still needs to be patient.
In addition to Tesla, the explosive growth expected by other traditional car companies has not arrived in 2021. Volkswagen and other companies are hoping that the new energy business will turn around in 2022.
3
Those that go on and on
In 2021, the intensity of competition between the power battery solutions of various enterprises will increase rapidly. If you use a phrase to describe it, it is that "the entire ternary market has been hit by lithium iron phosphate (LFP)."
LFP can occupy the low-end electric vehicle market, which everyone has long expected. However, LFP easily crosses the barrier and occupies the power range below 70kWh, making the 532 and 622 batteries in the ternary very embarrassed.
The only safe place is the 811 high-nickel battery. As for ultra-high nickel (9:0.5:0.5), it has never been the mainstream of the market, and the amount of traffic can be ignored.
The continuous accumulation of this trend will end the three-yuan lead in 2021. Domestically, the output of ternary lithium batteries was 93.9GWh, an increase of 93.6%, accounting for 42.7% of the total output; the output of LFP was 125.4GWh, an increase of 262.9% year-on-year, accounting for 57.1%.
In terms of sales, ternary lithium batteries were 79.6GWh, accounting for 42.8%; LFP was 106GWh, accounting for 57.2%. Sales volumes and production volumes are comparable.
The reason is that the energy density of 532 and 622 ternary lithium batteries is very small compared with LFP, but the management costs such as thermal runaway are similar to those of 811 ternary lithium batteries, resulting in ternary lithium batteries that have lost their cost advantages being replaced by LFP. This has forced Korean companies to also turn to LFP, and Panasonic is still sticking to the three yuan and has other plans.
However, LFP cannot completely expel the three elements, and even the newly obtained lead itself is not stable.
The price of LFP rose from 40,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 111,000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 177.5%. The prices of 532, 622 and 811 ternary lithium batteries rose from 123,500 yuan / ton, 145,500 yuan / ton and 170,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 248,000 yuan / ton, 266,000 yuan / ton and 276,000 yuan / ton, respectively, an increase of 100%, 83% and 62%. Clearly, LFP weakens the cost advantage.
4
Who would be more reliable
Now the new variable lies in the 4680 battery, which is also the battery technology that Tesla masters the intellectual property rights.
The 4680 battery is not only a larger cylindrical ternary lithium battery, but also a "non-polar ear" design, its cost, capacity, performance and heat dissipation are better, and the energy density is increased by about 50% ("energy increase 5 times" is a very chicken thief's saying, because its volume is larger).
Compared with BYD's blade battery, the high-nickel ternary 4680 battery is indeed better than LFP in energy density, charge and discharge efficiency, and winter endurance performance.
In theory, the 4680 battery has comprehensive advantages. Moreover, from the perspective of material cost, with the landing of the 4680 battery, the battery production scale will be rapidly increased with the Tesla vehicle, and the cost advantage of LFP will be further smoothed out.
In the mid-to-high-end products, sanyuan can still hold the chassis, and LFP will stop at the mid-range.
Some people claim that the 4680 battery and the "semi-solid" battery advocated by some new forces (that is, the solid electrolyte is used near the electrode on one side and a small amount of liquid electrolyte is used near the other side), which is "futures", which means that it is not credible.
Although both are PPT status, the 4680 battery will be technical details, innovation parts, production processes, test production lines are public, mass production lines are also about to be built, it looks much more reliable.
From the current information analysis, Panasonic's small-scale mass production of 4680 batteries in 2022 is basically no problem, and the conditions are already in place. LG and CATL have also obtained patent authorization from Tesla and are preparing for trial production.
According to market rumors, Samsung SDI is also seeking "trial production". But the source of 4680 battery technology can only be Tesla, and the two have never cooperated. How Samsung will try it out is unknown.
According to other information, BMW will also have some new models using 4680 batteries after 2025. Tesla is expected to allow patent grants to be transferred to third parties for free or at a low price.
All the information of the semi-solid state is currently difficult to know, even the supplier is secret, and the technical details are even less appreciated. In comparison, the 4680 battery is more reliable.
Sodium batteries, bipolar batteries, lithium-sulfur batteries, lithium metal batteries, all stay in the PPT propaganda stage, mass production related information are relatively scarce, it is difficult to judge the stage of technological development in which they are located. It is impossible to seriously consider its market position for two or three years, due to the recovery cycle of large-scale investment in battery production lines, at least 5 years.
When battery manufacturers have not yet recovered their investment in a new technology, they will only conduct experimental research on other new technology solutions and will not deploy production capacity on a large scale.
In 2021, from the world to China, the competition theme of the battery market is "scale", and the scale can be king; and in 2022, there is a new solution to explore. This is the hidden concern of the current market leaders, who all choose to follow up one by one, lest they be abandoned by the new route.
No matter how tossed, the "China-South Korea-Japan Trilateral Romance" is still the same, and the production capacity deployed in Europe is still far away.
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