Author 丨 Zhang Zhidong Carman
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
Stock prices are for the near term, and balance is for the long term.
"They're talking about it, and Tesla has to lay it out differently."
"The bears are trying to influence the stock price of the NINGDE era."
Two completely different news, around the two hottest companies, in the "melon field" surging dark tide. One is the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, the other is the world's number one power battery supplier, all have a surprising stock price market value, whether it is rumors or rumors, will attract the attention of the entire industry.
Probably many people in the circle have seen a screenshot, some people broke the news, "C and T price talks about the collapse of the information, the major stock reviews are saying, the information is fully fermented", some people are asking, "Monday, will C fall to a stop?" ”
This is reminiscent of the first week of the Year of the Tiger, what kind of accidents capital and industry have brought to the spirited "King of Ning". Five days after the opening of the market after the Spring Festival, the stock price of the Ningde era went all the way down, from more than 600 on the first day of the opening of the market to less than 500 at the close of this Friday, a drop of as much as 20%, and the market value evaporated by nearly 230 billion.
For a time, the entire capital market became a haze. On the one hand, it is the loyal supporters of the Ningde era, who firmly believe that the emergence of such a situation comes from the technical adjustment of the stock market, so they stand up straight and be the backbone of the "King of Ning"; on the other hand, it is those shareholders who have been disheartened, and they have eaten "big noodles" for several days, and at the same time they have endured the pain of cutting meat, and sang "emptiness" to the former king.
Whose benefit is this kind of profit? BYD? Zhongxin Airlines? Or are other power battery upstarts?
In the view of the C dimension, there is no need to degrade the Ningde era to death because of rumors and downward trend of stock prices. After all, price negotiations have to go through many rounds of discussion, and it is not a day or two that negative news is exaggerated by bears.
But on the other hand, the vehicle company tries to put eggs in multiple baskets by laying out multiple power battery suppliers, but it is also an obvious trend.
Tesla will be more like "Aquaman", neither the Ningde era nor BYD, will be as easy as before. However, a mature enterprise and a mature industry, under pressure, move forward, enter the "steady state", the results are more gold-rich, and all parties tend to be balanced, which is the best result.
01
Busy debunking rumors, pulling the stock price
It is often used by people to describe the powerful existence of various booms and busts in the middle of the day.
After "the market value exceeded one trillion yuan" and "became the most valuable automobile listed company in China", the Ningde era naturally enjoyed the dividends of fame on the one hand, and on the other hand, it also faced such doubts - the aura and shadow have always coexisted.
Price-to-earnings ratio = company's market value / company's net profit, the price-earnings ratio of more than 100 at this time in the Ningde era is the main target of the short-sellers. To put it simply, according to the price-earnings ratio of today's Ningde era, it will take more than 100 years to earn its current market value of up to trillions. Therefore, whether the Ningde era "peaked and went down", this conjecture has a basis.
For the C dimension, which likes to tell the truth and speak objectively, we do not like to go with the flow, and when we see someone breaking the news of the negatives of the Ningde era, we will step on it. But we also hope to give a reminder to the Ningde era, BYD and any company that may sit at the top in the future: a humble and inclusive attitude can make "peaking" longer and "downward" postponement.
The reason why I don't want to say that "Tesla and the Ningde era really talked about collapse" is that there are two major reasons for stepping on the Ningde era.
The first is because, according to common sense, there are multiple rounds of price negotiations. The failure to reach consensus in the first round does not mean that subsequent negotiations will also fail.
Secondly, the current securities industry does not lack shorts and attempts to copy the bottom, hoping to put pressure on the stock price of the Ningde era through negative news.
So, next, let's sort out what rumors have put downward pressure on Ningwang's stock price.
Counting the past week, there are three threatening rumors about the reasons for the continuous "killing" of the Ningde era, which correspond to its power battery business, energy storage business, and vital international business.
Rumor one is that Tesla and the Ningde era "talk about collapse", BYD is about to reap the benefits of the fisherman. This is currently commenting on major online stock reviews, and it is the most lethal rumor for the stock price of ningde times.
According to statistical information, the main order recipients of the Ningde era include Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, SAIC, FAW and other major car companies. Among them, in the total orders of the Cataline era in 2021, Tesla's total installed capacity reached 13.91GWh, accounting for 20% of its total orders last year.
In this case, if Tesla's order has a problem, it will not only affect the overall power battery business of the Ningde era, but also suffer a lot of "sunk" losses from the battery production base built by Tesla in Shanghai Lingang.
In fact, since last year, there have been rumors on the Internet that Tesla is about to introduce BYD blade batteries as a supplement. And recently there is news that the blade battery has reached Tesla's C-wheel testing stage and is about to be mass-produced and installed. In the face of all kinds of news that is difficult to distinguish between true and false, the stock price of the Ningde era will inevitably become "overwhelmed".
Rumor two, the Ningde era may be at risk of being added to the "blacklist" by the United States. Although there are some political factors hidden in it, regarding the "tree big move" in the Ningde era, whether the US crackdown will come by surprise, and no one dares to pack a ticket. Of course, the fuse of this rumor must start from another "black hand" of the United States.
During the Winter Olympics, the United States again added 33 domestic entities to the so-called Unverified List and imposed new restrictions on the rights of related entities to obtain products from U.S. exporters. After the news came out, there were rumors on the Internet that the Ningde era was seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to consult the possibility of being sanctioned by the United States.
Although the CATL era also responded to the news later, it was false information that our company consulted the US agencies about the possibility of sanctions. However, out of the prejudgment that the United States does not want face, the authenticity of the "rumor" has been further amplified, and the market panics at the same time, and the investment sentiment is close to the freezing point.
Rumor three, the Energy Storage Market in the Ningde Era is about to be impacted. The truth of this rumor is very high, but competition from within the industry is inevitable, after all, the rules of the game are always "capable people come first".
According to market news, the mass production line of the "Ronghe No. 1" iron-chromium liquid flow battery stack with independent intellectual property rights of the State Power Investment Corporation was put into operation. The electrolyte solution of the iron-chromium flow battery energy storage technology is an aqueous solution, which will not explode, and has the characteristics of low cost and long cycle life.
In the case of lithium ore prices continue to rise, the existing lithium battery energy storage technology market space, it is inevitable that it will be further squeezed. The energy storage business in the Ningde era will also be within the scope of the squeeze.
02
The "fundamentals" are still there, and the risks should be careful
When negative rumors arise, the C dimension will remind the melon-eating masses, "Don't be gullible"; and when the large company is full of self-confidence, the C dimension will warn the enterprise, "need to be careful".
Positive: Things in the stock market are full of variables; in the industry, the "fundamentals" of the Ningde era still exist. Although gossip fills the major communication windows, the 11-year accumulation of technology and momentum in the Ningde era is not easy to disintegrate in a short period of time.
The opposite: The Ningde era does lengthen the front line and increase investment in the layout, and the capital chain will be under pressure. If the Ningde era cannot maintain a humble and inclusive attitude towards the entire industry, then both vehicle customers and market observers will reduce their favorability. The balance of "eggs in multiple baskets" means that the second supply of power batteries and even four supplies of five supplies will become the norm for vehicle companies.
The struggle between positive and negative factors will determine the future direction of the Ningde era, and even affect the pattern of China's and even the global power battery industry.
The performance of the Ningde era is not bad. According to its 2021 performance forecast, CATL expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 14-16.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 150.75%-195.52% year-on-year; deducting non-net profit of 12-14 billion yuan, an increase of 181.38%-228.28% year-on-year. You know, this is the highest profit level achieved since the Listing of the Ningde Era in 2018.
In addition, the 2021 global power battery market ranking has just been announced, according to relevant data, the Ningde era is still sitting on the world's first throne, the market share accounts for one-third of the entire global power battery market, the total installed capacity of 96.7GWh, a little more than the sum of LG new energy and Panasonic installed capacity.
Although LG New Energy took advantage of the listing, it released a bold statement that orders have received a lot and will further replace the leading position of the Ningde era. However, according to the growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles and the scale of the entire Chinese market, replacing the Ningde era is inevitably a bit "whimsical".
Secondly, the Ningde era also did "open source" in the industry. On January 20, 2022, CATL released the power exchange brand EVOGO, launched the "Chocolate Power Exchange Block" specially developed for the power exchange mode, and officially entered the blue ocean of the power exchange market as a brand.
It is conceivable that with the identity of the battery manufacturer, the Ningde era will certainly gain a lot of sound in the power exchange market, and even become the formulator of "rules". At that time, with the establishment of battery banks, the Ningde era will gain a new incremental market.
Finally, there is still a point that needs to be mentioned that there are not many favorable policies. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration recently jointly issued the Opinions on Improving the Institutional Mechanisms and Policy Measures for The Green and Low-Carbon Transformation of Energy. The two departments said: Accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases with emphasis on desert, Gobi and desert areas。
In other words, the corresponding energy storage battery market is bound to rise new waves. Although the above mentioned iron-chromium flow battery turmoil, but the Ningde era early ambush of sodium ion batteries, may not be unspeakable, and the imagination of a lot of space.
Turn around and talk about the downsides.
All kinds of rumors don't have to be repeated too hard, we only pick places that others tend to ignore.
"The stalls of the Ningde era are too big," a friend told me, although in his view, the collapse with Tesla may only be an exaggeration of the manipulator of the stock price, but the risk that the Ningde era needs to be vigilant against cannot be ignored, "cash flow is a problem, from another side to show that cash flow is annoyed." ”
Market capitalization is equal to 100 years of profits, which is bound to require that for many years, cash flow can maintain stable growth in performance to ensure that this market value is not a bubble.
On the other hand, in the face of the attitude of the vehicle partners and the automotive industry, how tough it is now, how many mines will be planted. We have no intention of confirming the dispute between the Ningde era and the rumored customer, but the statement of "first pay and then deliver" more or less confirms the strong position. The "strong position" has always been a phased state, and the "multi-point layout" has always been the pursuit of major vehicle companies.
Moreover, for the stock market full of "sickles", even if there is a lot of good news, it will not let go of any opportunity to "cut leeks". The unfavorable news mixed with true and false will definitely form a drag on the brand influence of the Ningde era.
03
Who's smiling?
This week, there was a rare scene in the capital market, when a brokerage company jumped out and publicly sang the Ningde era. According to the brokerage, the trend of Moutai in Guizhou in 2021 is similar to the trend of the Ningde era in 2022. Referring to the trend of Moutai in Guizhou, the Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term, or there is still 20% room for decline, and it is preferable to ship at a high level.
Between the words, it seems that the "500 bottom" of The current King of Ning is full of "crisis". However, another thing worth thinking about is that if the stock price of the Ningde era plummets and the industry position is difficult to preserve, who will clap their hands and applaud?
Years ago, as far as the Ningde era was concerned, the most discussed was its "cracks in the trillion empire". But if you stop and think left and right, it is not difficult to find that this situation is not something that a company can control, but a decision made by the entire industry and the market.
The industry cannot tolerate any enterprise being the only one, and the so-called balance of competition pattern is the result that the market and the majority of car companies want to see.
Regarding the industry, the friends of the Ningde era are waiting, because "a whale falls, everything is born"; the A car companies in the Ningde era are waiting, because "the more competitive, the fairer, the more profitable". Regarding the capital market, countless shareholders are waiting, because "the wealth is moving, speculation makes people rich"; and greedy capital is also waiting, because "the leeks of the new stubble are about to ripen".
But can the "unspoken rules" that run through it be broken?
At this time, the Ningde era is like being put on the shackles of public opinion, and it is wrong to move forward and backward to be wrong. And in the global "competition" pattern, it is difficult to determine one thing - the current power battery industry, whether it still needs such a leader to lead everyone, has been moving forward, charging forward?
In fact, no matter what the choice of the market industry, but Tianxingjian, gentlemen to self-improvement, the enterprise itself also has a strong subjective initiative. As long as the battery can be done well enough, but also to give the collaborators enough profits, and to promote the entire industry's technical level forward, Tao Li does not say anything, the next is its own.
One thing we can be 100% sure of: whether sitting on the throne of the battery king for a long time is not the Ningde era, the era of intelligent electric vehicles will be the era of the strong, the era of China's industry.
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Micro signal | C-dimensional