Tang Yonghong: Will the cross-strait economy be decoupled? (2) The author, Tang Yonghong, deputy director, professor, and doctoral supervisor of the Taiwan Research Center of Xiamen University, see "Tang Yonghong: Will the Cross-Strait Economy Decouple?" （

Tang Yonghong: Will the cross-strait economy be decoupled? (ii)

　　Author Tang Yonghong Deputy Director, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor of the Center for Taiwan Studies, Xiamen University

See "Tang Yonghong: Will the Cross-Strait Economy Decouple?" (1)

　　In short, from the evolution of the international political and economic pattern over the past 20 years, the practice of the development of cross-strait relations, and the evolution of Taiwan's social ecology, the DPP and other green camp political forces have gradually realized the importance of cross-strait economic integration to Taiwan's economic development, realized that cross-strait economic integration and cross-strait political integration are not inevitable, and previously worried that close cross-strait economic ties are not conducive to Taiwan independence, and have increased confidence in developing cross-strait economic relations. On this basis, the DPP authorities have readjusted their attitudes and tactics for developing cross-strait economic relations. Generally speaking, the DPP and its authorities no longer simply oppose the development of cross-strait economic relations or even cross-strait economic integration, but only insist on proceeding on the political basis of "one country on one side" or "one China, one Taiwan," stressing that "Taiwan gives priority" in terms of interests, and avoiding affecting Taiwan's security.

　　In fact, the above-mentioned cognitive, attitude and strategic adjustments of the DPP and its authorities are clearly reflected in the strategic exposition of Tsai Ing-wen's 2016 inaugural speech proposing to "build a new model for Taiwan's economic development" and "transform Taiwan's economy". Tsai pointed out that "the first step of reform is to strengthen the vitality and autonomy of the economy, strengthen the link with the world and the region, actively participate in multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation and free trade negotiations, including TPP, RCEP, etc., and promote the new southbound policy, enhance the pattern and diversity of the foreign economy, and bid farewell to the phenomenon of over-dependence on the single market in the past." Obviously, the DPP authorities are not trying to decouple the cross-strait economy, but are based on the consideration of expanding Taiwan's foreign economic space and niche, dispersing economic risks, and ensuring economic security. Even the policy measures to attract the return of Taiwan businessmen are mainly aimed at stimulating investment in the island to promote Taiwan's economic development. Of course, these policy measures will objectively be unhelpful or unfavorable to the development of cross-strait economic relations.

　　In fact, the DPP authorities no longer worry about the political impact of cross-strait economic integration and do not want cross-strait economic decoupling, and the latest manifestation of their statement on the existence and abolition of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), which has been in effect for more than 10 years. The Green Camp political forces and the DPP authorities, which advocate "one country on one side" or "one China, one Taiwan" and constantly promote the separatist activities of "Taiwan independence," are very worried that ecFA will be terminated by the mainland, and they have changed the attitude of the green camp political forces in denying the role of ECFA and vigorously smearing ECFA as opposing and opposing it, constantly acknowledging through the media that ECFA is conducive to Taiwan's industrial and economic development, calling on the two sides of the strait to "return politics to politics and economy to economy," hoping that cross-strait economic relations will be decoupled from cross-strait political relations, in a vain attempt to delink in their own opinions." Maintaining the operation of the ECFA under the framework of "one country" or "one China, one Taiwan" and continuing to obtain the benefits generated by the operation of the ECFA will contribute to Taiwan's economic development, which in turn will not only help its election and administration, but also help strengthen its economic foundation for promoting "Taiwan independence" separatist activities. In particular, the DPP authorities are well aware that if the operation of the ECFA can be maintained without the political foundation of the "1992 Consensus," the people of Taiwan will certainly further "separate political and economic orientations" in the development of cross-strait relations, that is, they are willing to exchange economic exchanges across the strait, but they also hope for Taiwan's independence. This is obviously conducive to strengthening the public opinion base of the DPP authorities in promoting the separatist activities of "Taiwan independence."

　　It can be seen that the current DPP authorities have in fact no idea of decoupling the cross-strait economy. In fact, in the face of cross-strait economic relations formed in the context of economic globalization in the past 30 years and the huge real economic benefits brought about by them, it will be an unbearable burden for Taiwan's economic development and people's well-being to take the initiative to decouple the cross-strait economy. Moreover, if the DPP authorities wanted to decouple the cross-strait economy, they would have taken the initiative to terminate the operation of the ECFA and close the policy door for cross-strait economic and trade exchanges long ago.

　　Obviously, the cross-strait economic decoupling is a completely false issue unless there is a cross-strait war. Not only that, but the theory of cross-strait economic decoupling is still a false proposition. In fact, cross-strait economic relations are mainly based on the needs of cross-strait people's livelihood and economic development and the comparative advantages of the two sides of the strait under the market economy and globalization. As long as the two sides of the strait maintain a state of peace and stability, cross-strait division of labor and cooperation based on the globalization of the market economy and cross-strait division of labor and cooperation based on comparative advantages will continue to exist and deepen development. Therefore, the economies on both sides of the strait will not only not decouple, but also in the long run, they will continue to break through policy obstacles and move towards integrated development.