Everyone knows that the F-22 is listed by the United States as a fighter jet banned from export, but the United States has considered exporting the F-22 very seriously, and the U.S. Air Force also produced a briefing in March 2010 entitled "F-22 Export Configuration Study" to give a detailed introduction to the export F-22. This brief was recently disclosed at the request of the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, and although some of the key contents were removed due to declassification, it still gives us a relatively complete understanding of the export-oriented F-22. In fact, after reading this document, I am very glad that the F-22 was not exported successfully, because although the export F-22 is greatly simplified compared to the US version for personal use, its comprehensive performance is still far beyond the F-35. If the F-22 is really exported in large quantities by the United States, it is a far greater threat to us than the F-35.
First, the U.S. Air Force conducted at least one study with Lockheed Martin on the export of the F-22 as early as 1998, a year after the F-22 first flew. And in 2006, a year after the F-22 entered service, the security issues associated with the sensitive technology transfer of the F-22 were re-examined. Lockheed Martin also conducted an internal export feasibility review in March 2009. This shows that the U.S. Air Force itself is very satisfied with the F-22, trying to reduce the cost of procurement through exports, thereby ensuring and expanding the final purchase quantity of the F-22. In Particular, in April 2009, when then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates expressed his intention to drastically cut the Air Force's purchase of the F-22, the Air Force's willingness to do so became even stronger. Countries such as Japan, Australia and Israel have all shown strong interest in purchasing the F-22.
U.S. Air Force disclosures related to the export of F-22s
In this briefing, the U.S. Air Force presents two options for export delivery. Both options were based on the production of at least 40 export F-22s.
The first option is to start production of the export F-22 two years after the F-22 was discontinued. Due to the need to restart the production line, the total cost is higher, totaling about $11.6 billion, and the average unit cost per aircraft is $232.5 million. If converted into 2021 dollar purchasing power, the unit price is about $259 million, and the total cost is close to $13 billion. The first export F-22 will then be delivered in Q2 2017, almost six years after the end of production of the F-22 for own use in the U.S. (the last F-22 left the factory in December 2011).
The first option was delivered at 2QCY17
The last F-22 to roll off the production line
The second option is to produce the U.S. Air Force's own version of the F-22 directly after production. Due to the savings in restarting the production line. As a result, the total cost of the program is only $8.3 billion, and the unit price is as low as $165 million. Based on the 2021 DOLLAR purchasing power conversion, the total cost does not exceed $9.2 billion, and the unit price is not higher than $184 million. The first export F-22 will be able to be delivered in Q4 2016, almost four and a half years after the end of production of the F-22 for own use in the United States.
Option 2 has a first delivery time of 4QCY16
Of course, the above unit price does not include the cost of related training and technical support. According to Lockheed Martin's calculations, the average annual cost of the export F-22 for the above services is about $3 million per aircraft, which translates to $3.75 million in 2021 dollar purchasing power. However, this figure does not include the cost of overhauling two F-119-PW-100 engines.
What is the export F-22 simplified? What about performance?
From the briefing, we can understand that the export F-22 is based on the last F-22 version (Increment 3.1) ordered by the USAF, and some of the functions will be simplified or removed (red part in the figure) and some will use the technology of the F-35 (the yellow part in the figure below). So what features does the export-type F-22 specifically simplify or remove? What about overall performance? Why is it more of a threat to us than the F-35?
Differences in the outlet F-22
The briefing revealed that there are at least three sets of systems and related capabilities on the F-22 that the U.S. government has never allowed to export. So if the F-22 is exported, these parts will be simplified. One of the technical groups is the F-22's "thrust vectoring technology" and "super cruise capability".
Thrust vectoring technology will be removed from the export F-22. While this would reduce the F-22's close-quarters combat performance, the export F-22 was still able to beat most of the fourth/fourth and a half generation fighters in close-quarters combat and still outperformed the F-35 with its new helmet sight and AIM-9X fighting shell with large-angle firing capabilities, as well as the more powerful F-119-PW100 engine.
The export F-22's super-patrol capability will be weakened. This simplification should be achieved by reducing the military thrust of the F-119-PW100 engine, and of course it is possible to achieve it by limiting the bottom layer of the avionics system. As for how much it will drop, the author speculates that it will drop to the same as F-35A, that is, between Mach 1.48 and Mach 1.52, take a full Mach 1.5. Because the power system and aerodynamic layout have not changed, although the speed of the export F-22's super patrol has decreased, its time for over-patrol may increase in theory, which can also be regarded as a "blessing in disguise".
F-119-PW100 engine
PS: The F-35A's super-patrol data comes from the "F-35 flight envelope" in the figure below. From the inside, it can be seen that the maximum flight speed of the F-35 series can only reach Mach 1.6, and the maximum supercruiser speed (Cruise) is between Mach 1.48 and Mach 1.52. It is worth mentioning that from the envelope diagram we can also see that the supersonic maneuverability of the F-35 is very poor, and the maximum maneuver overload allowed at its maximum flight speed is only 1 G, that is, it is almost impossible to make any effective tactical maneuvers, and can only fly flat, and the maximum flight altitude does not exceed 50,000 feet (about 15,000 meters).
The content contained in the other two groups was edited out of the briefing, highlighting the sensitivity of these technologies, even now that they cannot even be named (it feels like the U.S. Air Force is putting gold in its face). However, given the context, it can still be guessed that at least the AN/APG-77(V)1 active phased array radar is included. Because the briefing revealed that the export F-22 will use the AN/APG-81 active phased array radar developed for the F-35. AN/APG-81 can be seen as a simplified version of AN/APG-77(V)1, with a much smaller antenna array and a reduction in the T/R module from about 1500 to about 1200 of AN/APG-77(V)1, so that the maximum detection distance of AN/APG-81 to a typical aerial target (RCS=3 m2) is only 170 km, only two-thirds of an AN/APG-77(V)1. That is, an AN/APG-77(V)1 performs better than AN/APG-81 in all anti-air operating modes.
APG-77(V)1 radar (left) and APG-81 radar (right)
Although the replacement OF AN/APG-81 will put the export F-22 at a disadvantage against the J-20, it will still be able to crush a large number of fourth-generation/fourth-generation and semi-generation fighters and Russia's fifth-generation Su-57 with an order of stealth capability that is an order of magnitude stronger than the F-35. In addition, thanks to the later development time, the an/APG-81 performed better than the AN/APG-77(V)1 in ground operation, thus giving the export F-22 a more powerful versatility.
Why is the export F-22 far more of a threat to us than the F-35?
In addition to the excellent close-range maneuverability mentioned above, the two most important reasons for the export F-22's threat to the mainland will be greater than that of the F-35, which is its superior stealth performance and supersonic maneuverability that crushes fourth- and fourth-generation semi-fighters.
First of all, let's look at this piece of stealth performance. From the following table made by foreign netizens according to official information, we can see that the forward radar reflection area (RCS) of the F-22 is only 0.0002m², while the F-35A is 0.0013m², and the F-22 is an order of magnitude stronger than the stealth performance of the F-35. The lower the reflection area of the fighter radar, the shorter the detection and tracking distance of the active phased array radar. Obviously, if the J-10C and J-16, which are heavily equipped by our army, can barely cope with the F-35 with advanced radar, then the ironclad must not be able to effectively resist the export F-22, and the J-20 must be needed to deal with it effectively. The output and number of equipment of the J-20 have always been limited, which will undoubtedly put serious pressure on the mainland's air defense.
The second is its supersonic maneuverability. Although the super-patrol capability has been weakened, the export F-22 is still invincible to the traditional fourth-generation/fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters. First of all, supersonic cruise can greatly increase the range of medium-range air-to-air missiles, such as the export F-22 launching AIM-120D medium-range projectile, the effective range of the missile at Mach 1.5 is half higher than at Mach 0.9, thus gaining the advantage of first enemy launch in air combat with opponents who do not have supercruising capabilities. In addition, the super patrol allows the fighter to have more maneuvering energy in the battle, whether it is in the middle distance battle or the close-range combat has a greater advantage, and finally, the super patrol can also allow the fighter to fly to the battlefield and withdraw from the battlefield faster, truly fighting far and running away.
Obviously, the export-based F-22 performs much better than the F-35, and it's not expensive, even at the most expensive $259 million unit price, which is about the same as the unit price of The Gust in India. Whether it is Japan, Australia or Israel, there are enough financial resources to buy easily. In fact, fortunately, the F-22 could not be exported in the end, otherwise the fifth-generation aircraft equipped by the neighboring countries we are facing now is not a quasi-fifth-generation aircraft such as the F-35, but a real standard fifth-generation aircraft. Imagine that Japan began to equip the export F-22 in 2016, and at that time our J-20 was not yet in service, and at that time, the most advanced navy and air force were only the J-11B and J-10A, which could not compete with the export F-22 at all, which meant that in the East China Sea, our army will face a huge strategic disadvantage, and our navy and air force are very likely to be solidly blocked in the first island chain.
So the suspension of production and ban on the export of the F-22 is a bad move for the Americans, and the F-35 that the Americans have high hopes for cannot cope with my J-20 at all, which explains why the US Air Force recently abandoned the original plan to retire the F-22 and instead spent $10.86 billion on the mid-term upgrade of the 182 F-22s in active service.
Finally, I would like to "thank" the U.S. congressmen led by David Obey, whose efforts made the F-22 a non-sale product. Thanks, of course, to Robert Gates, then U.S. Secretary of Defense in 2009, it was his efforts that led to a drastic reduction in the number of F-22s purchased from 381 to 187. It can be said that it was precisely because of their efforts that the spread of the F-22 was finally stopped around China.