Affected by the epidemic in 2021, the world auto market continued to remain sluggish, but China's sales rebounded strongly. Since the second half of 2020, China's auto market has gradually come out of the impact of the epidemic, China has shown a reversal trend, and the auto market affected by the epidemic in Europe and the United States is sluggish, forming a complex situation in the world enterprise market in 2021.
As a high-monopoly industry such as automotive chips, the supply side should have the responsibility to protect the security of supply. This supply-side accident will bring significant opportunities for the rise of China's supply chain.
From a worldwide perspective, the Asian group represented by Toyota and Hyundai Kia has performed relatively strongly, and the recovery effect of Chinese car companies is the most prominent. In December this year, China's automobiles accounted for 38% of the world's automobile share, and the share from January to December was 33%, and the overall performance was strong, which is also the characteristics of China's strong work in responding to the world's new crown epidemic, rapid economic and social recovery, and good development.
1. Monthly sales trend of world automobiles over the years
From January to December 2021, the world's main countries sold 80.07 million vehicles, an increase of 3% year-on-year, and the recovery performance after the epidemic was better, but the January-December 2021 was still lower than the sales in 2019, and the gap between the high point in recent years was 12%, the gap level was larger, and the world automobile sales in December were only 7.25 million units, down 16% from the 8.63 million units in December 2017, and the production and sales fell significantly.
The trend from January to December this year is still lower than the sales level of the previous calendar year, the annual level is only better than the level of 2020, the performance since the third quarter is weaker than the same period in 2020, and the improvement in December is larger, so it is still in the recovery period.
2. The trend of world automobile sales over the years
The world car sales in the above table are mainly sales in 70 countries, and these 70 core countries have about 90 million units in 2019, which is also basically able to track monthly sales.
There are 100 other countries that can only track annual sales, with a total of about 3 million units in 2019. Compared with the 70 main countries with 90 million units, the total number of these smaller countries is about 3%, and the impact is not large.
From the perspective of world sales represented by the main countries, world car sales fell by 1% in 2018. For the first time since 2010, it has fallen into negative annual growth. Vehicle sales in 2019 were 89.81 million units, down 4 percent year-on-year, slightly worse than the decline in 2008, and sales fell 13 percent in January-December 2020.
From January to December 2021, it rebounded by 3% year-on-year, of which China rebounded by 4% and the rest of the world rebounded by 3%, which is mainly the low base of europe and the United States of last year's epidemic.
3. China's sales volume in January-December maintained a leading position
The influence of the Chinese auto market on the world auto market is extremely huge. In 2018, Chinese cars accounted for 30% of the world, which fell to 29% in 2019, but still has an absolute advantage, but it rebounded to 32% in 2020, and China's share was surpassed by Europe in the first quarter of 2021. China's share was relatively stable from January to December 2021.
In 2018, China's domestic automobile sales were 27.99 million units, down 3% year-on-year, and sales fell by 880,000 units, compared with global sales of 730,000 units, and China's sales fell by more than the global total.
In 2019, China's automobile sales were 25.75 million units, down 2.24 million units from 2018, and 3.54 million units lower than global sales, contributing 63% to the decline in Chinese sales.
In 2020, China's automobile sales were 25.27 million units, down 480,000 units from 2019, and 11.78 million units lower than global sales, contributing 4% to the decline in Chinese sales.
From January to December 2021, the world's automobile sales were 80.07 million units, of which 26.25 million units were sold in China, an increase of 4%.
4. Regional differentiation of the COVID-19 pandemic
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world gradually fell back from December 2020, after an average of 650,000 people per day, to an average of 390,000 people per day in February 2021, and then began to continue to rise to 750,000 in April, and broke through the near peak of 800,000 people per day in December, of which the epidemic in North America continued to improve, the epidemic situation in some countries in Europe and Asia remained high, and the risk of epidemic in South America continued to rise.
The control of the epidemic in the United States has improved significantly since Trump stepped down, so the US car market has also continued to pick up, but the recent epidemic is relatively severe, the epidemic control in Europe is very poor, and the US car market in January and December is significantly stronger than the European car market.
5. The market in developing countries is generally not strong
From the perspective of sales volume in various countries around the world, the current performance is relatively good in the developed country market, the United States, India, Russia, Australia and other markets are generally strong, the market in developing countries has improved overall, and the Performance of the Chinese market is relatively strong.
6. China's world market share trend
In 2021, the market will further diverge, and China's share will be at a high level. In January-February 2021, the Chinese New Year factor led to a low world share, followed by China's March-August still reached 32% of the world share; since August, the epidemic in Malaysia has intensified, under the epidemic, chip shortage, China's car market is generally stronger in the world's weak, and the outbreak in September-December has increased to 38%.
7. Characteristics of the monthly trend of automobile sales in various countries
Judging from the monthly sales growth trend of countries around the world, the trend between months is basically maintained, but due to seasonal factors, annual factors and many other influences, the trend of various countries is still a big contrast.
Because the Chinese auto market is still in the popularization period, it shows a relatively strong situation at the end of the year and a relatively soft summer trend, while the US auto market shows the characteristics of relatively weak at the beginning of the year and relatively stable in the middle of the year.
The Japanese corporate market shows a relatively strong trend in 2020, and the Trend of the Japanese Auto Market in December this year is also relatively strong.
As the automobile markets in Europe and the United States are facing the aggravation of the epidemic, the automobile market has experienced a sharp decline, and in 2021, other car markets in the world will be affected by the epidemic and be depressed, only the Chinese car market is better.
8. The world share performance of international groups
This chart shows the trend of world sales share. Judging from the current comprehensive performance of the group, the Asian sector is generally strong. Because the Asian sector attaches more importance to the epidemic, the losses suffered are relatively small, and the market performance is relatively strong.
Toyota Group's performance is relatively strong, and its world share in 2021 has reached a level of about 12.2%, but Volkswagen's performance is relatively sluggish, and the impact of the epidemic in Europe is greater.
Volkswagen Group's Losses in China were larger, but smaller in North America and Europe.
Hyundai motor in South Korea is stronger, Hyundai in North America and Europe performs well, and China is weak.
Honda Group also reached a slightly lower level of 5.5% this year, but still surpassed Ford.
Germany's Mercedes-Benz and BMW Group performed strongly. Hyundai-Kia has continued to be stronger in the past two years.
This article is compiled from the WeChat public account "Cui Dongshu", author: Cui Dongshu; Zhitong Finance Editor: Chen Shiye