In 2020, new energy vehicles accounted for only 5.73% of new car sales in passenger cars; in 2021, this figure became 13.84%; in December 2021, this figure was 21.34%.
When the domestic new energy vehicle market share has maintained a level of about 5% for several years, and suddenly increased to more than 13% in 2021, it means that new energy vehicles have begun to get rid of the hotbed of policies and truly enter the marketization process. From the sales volume in 2021, we can find several obvious characteristics.
1. Second-tier cities have become the main growth force of new energy vehicles
In 2021, the overall growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles will be 156.77%, while among all the line-level cities, only first-tier cities will have a growth rate lower than this level. Among the remaining cities, second-tier cities have the fastest growth rate, reaching 236.20%, with a market share of nearly 20%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points over 2020.
New energy vehicles first started in the first-tier and some new first-tier cities with limited licenses and purchase restrictions, which is a typical policy drive. From policy-driven to market-driven, it must be a top-down process, whether it is urban line level or price. At present, the growth trend of new energy vehicles has been transmitted from first-tier and new first-tier cities to second-tier cities, with the launch of new products by micro-mobility pure electric vehicles and a series of independent brands in the mainstream price market, as well as the promotion of digital marketing and sales, the trend of further sinking in the new energy vehicle market will continue to advance on the basis of the current single-month share of more than 20%.
2. Private purchases replace travel market launches as the main consumer force
In 2019, the best-selling new energy vehicles are baic motor EU, which is mainly based on taxi procurement, while key models in the travel market such as AION S, Roewe Ei5, BYD e5, and Emgrand EV are also among the hot-selling models.
However, in just two years, the best-selling new energy vehicles have become Hongguang MINIEV, Model Y/Model 3, Ideal ONE, Qin PLUS DM, which are models with private consumption as the absolute main force, and cover a variety of categories such as scooters, mainstream family cars, new mainstream luxury cars, and all-round cars. Among the top ten new energy vehicle sales in 2021, only the AION S is left with the main sales force in the travel market, and its sales of 36.43% in 2021 have increased year-on-year, which is also significantly behind the overall growth rate of the new energy vehicle market.
In 2022, new car-making forces will successively launch high-end flagship models, and the products of independent brands in the mainstream price range will also enter the stage of blooming, coupled with Tesla, which will tilt the production capacity of the Shanghai factory to the domestic, and the penetration of new energy vehicles into mainstream private consumers will be further deepened.
3. Self-owned brands may truly turn the first opportunity into a leading position
If the high sales volume of independent brands in the new energy vehicle market in previous years is because they occupy the opportunity to take the lead in launching products, then from the perspective of 2021, some excellent independent brands have the ability to transform the opportunity into an irreversible leading edge in the true sense.
In 2021, the share of independent brands in the new energy vehicle market has increased to 77.83%, of which the share in 5 months has even exceeded 80%, compared with 71.96% in 2020. More critically, independent brands have broken through the inherent limitations of the era of fuel vehicles.
In the high-end market, on the basis of entering the top ten new energy sales of car companies in the whole year, the average price of bicycles is second only to Mercedes-Benz in BBA, ranking fourth among all luxury brands. Xiaopeng and Ideal can also achieve good sales results in the market of more than 200,000 yuan and more than 300,000 yuan. In 2022, independent brands will also have a series of smart electric vehicles aimed at the high-end market, and whether it is luxury brands such as BBA or joint venture brands such as Volkswagen and Toyota, in fact, the brand effect in the era of electric vehicles has been weakened to a considerable extent compared with the era of fuel vehicles.
In the mainstream market, whether it is BYD's pure electric/plug hybrid delivery strategy, or Euler's alternative launch route, or GAC, SAIC and other products are hard chiseled, in fact, it is shaking the foundation of the joint venture brand. Perhaps today's joint venture brand fuel vehicles will not be greatly affected, but now the deeper the impact of independent brands on the consumer mind, the more difficult it will be to sell the mainstream pure electric vehicle models launched by the joint venture brand in the future.
If we have the resources in the global market, the era of electrification will be an opportunity to make a qualitative change in globalization. For example, SAIC Passenger Vehicles sold more than 160,000 new energy vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 107% year-on-year, and its export volume is estimated to be about 30% according to the number of insurances. This practice of integrating its first-mover advantage in new energy technology and products with global resources may not only make a qualitative change in scale, but also be the only way for Chinese auto brands to truly become global brands and break the unbreakable barriers of foreign brands in the era of fuel vehicles.
