Introduction: The outbreak of the new energy market in 2021 has brought new vitality to China's auto market under the stock competition. The advance layout of independent brands in recent years has made great contributions to the acceleration of the market and the recognition of consumers, and has also won a certain opportunity for independent brands in the new round of competition. However, in the face of the full development of the new energy market, the competition of car companies in the mainstream price range of 100,000-200,000 yuan has just begun. The research and development of mainstream independent brands in hybrid technology and the full electrification of joint venture brands have made the new battlefield with the broadest new energy usher in the last tranquility before the war.
(Text/Zhang Jiadong Editor/Lou Bing) In the face of the era of auto market stock after 2018, the battle for China's auto market has entered a new stage. Through the promotion of early new energy policies and the follow-up of car companies in the pace of transformation, the overall sales volume of China's auto market has remained stable in recent years, but the sales structure has quietly changed.
Thanks to the maturity of new energy technology and the continuous improvement of consumer acceptance, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars in China totaled 3.314 million units last year, an increase of 182.2% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. At the same time, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles has also increased by leaps and bounds from 5.4% in 2020 to 15.7% in 2021.
It is not difficult to see from the product segmentation that independent brands occupy an absolute main position in the new energy market.
In 2021, a total of 2.475 million self-owned brand passenger cars were sold, an increase of 187.1% year-on-year, accounting for 74.7% of the new energy market. The growth rate of joint venture brands was relatively slow, with annual sales of only 351,000 units, an increase of 109.8% year-on-year, and a market share of 10.6%. Sole proprietorship Tesla sold 484,000 units (320,000 units in China), an increase of 235.1% year-on-year and a market share of 14.6%.
However, facing the future market, the battle between the joint venture brand and the independent brand for the new energy market may have just begun.
The new king is far from ascending the throne
In recent years, due to the activity of new forces on the marketing end, and most of the new forces are betting on the electrification route, in the minds of many consumers, the new forces that compete to "dry" sales at the beginning of each month look more like the incremental behind-the-scenes drivers of the new energy market.
But in fact, it is not difficult to see from the statistics that after the so-called new forces in 2019, the intensification of the knockout rounds has gradually eliminated the new power brands from more than 300 in the heyday to more than ten today. The small base makes it difficult for new forces to promote the domestic new energy market even if they have an increase of nearly 210%, but it is still difficult to compare with traditional brands.
On the other hand, in the new power brands, the Matthew effect is becoming more and more serious, and in recent years, many investors believe that the number of new power brands retained in the future is only single digits. On the sales side, this speculation is vividly reflected.
After nearly 4 years of market exploration, the head car company "Wei Xiaoli" has maintained its monthly sales at the level of more than 10,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Nezha and Zero Run, who came to the top, also caught up with the new models in a state of continuous enrichment.
Overall, there were 7 new power brands with sales of more than 10,000 yuan last year, namely Xiaopeng, Weilai, Ideal, Nezha, and Zero Run. WM and Jimai New Energy. The first product of Lantu Automobile and Skyworth Automobile has just been listed in the second half of the year, and its performance of more than 6,000 vehicles also has the potential to rise.
It is worth noting that the car companies with excellent sales among the new power brands are mostly positioned in the high-end market of more than 200,000 yuan. In the early days, Weima, which faced the low-end mainstream market, had the slowest growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of only 96.3%. At the same time, relying only on the ideal of a single model, the growth rate in 2021 also slowed down significantly, at 109.1%, lagging behind other competitors. And with the day when the extender power is "expelled" from the new power list, the ideal still faces a new challenge after the power transformation.
In addition, among the new power brands that have entered the game, such as Jimai New Energy and Small Electric Celestial Bodies, they all set their sights on the vast A00-class electric vehicle market, but in the fierce A00 pure electric market segment, its performance still needs to be tested by time.
Obviously, due to the short accumulation time of new forces in terms of technology and word of mouth, it is not wise to rush to "hard and hard" with the fuel products of traditional car companies in the mainstream consumer market layout of 100,000-200,000 yuan. As far as the existing new forces are concerned, most car companies have achieved the survival stage of "from 0 to 1", and in the "1-100" period for future development, their sales growth will be more dependent on the launch of new models and differentiated competition in the market.
It is foreseeable that when the new forces begin to enter the precipitation period from the initial rapid explosion, their growth rate will gradually stabilize. At the same time, the knockout game between new forces is still continuing, although there are still new entrants such as Baidu and Xiaomi, but the new forces in the face of the mainstream market that is difficult to rely on brand influence, the huge barriers can obviously not be easily broken.
The undercurrent of traditional car companies is surging
If 2019 is the first year of new forces, then 2021 may be the first year of traditional independent brands in the field of new energy. The year-on-year increase was as high as 182%, making the performance of traditional independent brands on the data side quite eye-catching.
Among the 2.475 million self-owned brand new energy products, 867,000 A00-class models accounted for more than one-third. The root cause of this phenomenon depends on the launch of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV in 2020, the overall occupation of the A00-level market and the expansion of the market share of this segment.
Since the birth of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, its sales have risen, inspiring independent brands to jump in the market. The launch of Chery eQ, Changan BenBEN EV, Roewe Kelaiwei and other products has quickly become a product with rapid sales growth in the market. Among the top 10 models in terms of new energy bicycle sales in 2021, there are as many as 7 A00-class electric vehicles.
As far as the market environment is concerned, the freedom of travel in the sinking market has always been an indispensable topic in the development of China's automobile market. From the A00-class fuel vehicle to the full electrification of today's A00-class products, in addition to the mainstream consumer market, the domestic entry-level market potential of less than 100,000 yuan is very huge.
With the increase in the control of low-speed electric vehicles by national and local governments in recent years, the legalized electric vehicle products with production qualifications have become a substitute for this part of the market, taking Wuling Hongguang MINI EV as an example, the price will be reduced to 30,000 yuan, infinitely close to the price of low-speed electric vehicles, making it quickly become a means of transportation for many consumers in 3-5 tier cities. According to incomplete statistics, there are still more than 100 micro-low-speed electric vehicle passenger car manufacturers in the country, with an annual production capacity of more than 2 million units. This also means that the A00-class electric vehicle market still has potential on the road to gradually replacing low-speed electric vehicles.
However, in the face of a huge cake and low access costs, the full line of independent brands is intensifying the formation of the Red Sea of market segments. In order to seize market share in advance, the current layout of independent brands in the A00-level market is "reckless". According to the inventory of models on sale, the layout of traditional independent brands in the market alone is as many as 45 models, and Wuling, Chery, Changan and other car companies still have a number of similar products have opened pre-sale.
In addition, some of the head independent brands began to seek new breakthroughs, for BYD, Great Wall, Geely and other car companies with high self-research capabilities, looking for the key to breaking the game in the mainstream consumer market has become a new path to explore differentiation in the market.
As another representative of the transformation of its own brand in the direction of electrification, BYD has once again become the hegemon of the sales volume of new domestic forces. However, in 2021, BYD's increase in the new energy market does not come from pure electric models, but more from the introduction of DM-i plug-in hybrid technology in March. With 277,000 plug-in hybrid models, BYD is far ahead of the market segment and opens up new markets. The DM-i legion led by Qin PLUS DM-i has helped BYD completely open the door to the 100,000-200,000-level new energy market, and even in the competition with the same level of fuel vehicles, BYD can also rank among the top of the monthly sales list.
In addition, the number of brands that choose to open up a new battlefield in the mainstream market range is increasing in 2021, and Great Wall Euler will upgrade the A00-level products to 120,000 yuan, through the boutique and "female" focus on marketing, to create a difference with other A00-level products; GAC Aian continues to deepen in battery technology, and constantly tries to enhance brand value, and also stands firm in the mainstream price range; SAIC passenger cars, Roewe and MG respectively through the B-end market and overseas market development, Maintained the rapid growth of new energy model sales.
Different from the new force car companies, the head enterprises of traditional independent brands have set their sights on a broader mainstream price range in the early stage of new energy product launch, and with deep brand endorsement and technical accumulation, these car companies can achieve more comprehensive market coverage through the expansion of the group form. For example, ATD already has e2 to Han EV multi-price range products, while SAIC Motor Has opened a high-end exploration of Zhiji and Feifan Automobile after the gradual stabilization of MG and Roewe; Great Wall can also try more technical routes on the WEY brand in addition to the Euler brand; Geely has a multi-brand matrix composed of Geometry, Lynk & Co and Extreme Kr.
Although some independent brands are still in their infancy on the road to the expansion of new energy, in 2021, many leading car companies have announced their new energy strategies and invested tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of research and development funds to fully start the transformation. In the future, with the full development of traditional independent brands in the direction of electrification, the competition in the mainstream market will become increasingly fierce.
Similar to the entry time of independent brands in the mainstream market, the hindsight of joint venture brands on the road to electrification has caused them to lose the two hottest markets at present. Especially after the opening of the double carbon credit policy in the Chinese market, the joint venture brand once hoped to cope with the market by developing a low-cost parallel plug-in hybrid model, and the low cost performance brought by the high feed fuel consumption and the extremely low practical electronic control system not only seriously declined the reputation of the joint venture hybrid model, but also made the joint venture brand take a detour in the electrification market for many years.
In the face of the full-scale emergence of the electrification market, the joint venture brand did not really realize the lack of technology until 2021, resulting in the overall sales volume of the joint venture brand and the electrification products have lagged far behind the market. However, relying on the endorsement of the group behind the insistence, the joint venture brand has been extremely rapid in the action of electrification transformation. North-South Volkswagen, which took the lead in introducing the ID. series of electrified models in 2021, has already taken the lead and second places in the joint venture new energy list with 59,000 units and 57,000 vehicles respectively; GM Group, which is accelerating the introduction of Aoteneng's pure electric platform, also shows good growth potential in 2021.
In fact, at present, in the direction of electrification, the ranking of the joint venture brand is very similar to the performance of its fuel vehicle products, which also proves the collective thinking of the joint venture brand in electrification. In 2021, Volkswagen, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Ford, Nissan and other automotive groups have announced their own electrification transformation plans, many of which will officially land in the Chinese market in 2022, and according to the plan, the market for these new cars will also cover a full range of market segments from mainstream to high-end.
At present, the promotion resistance to the electrification of joint venture brands is mainly due to the recognition of the market and the loss of pricing power, taking Volkswagen as an example, although it has performed well in the European market, ID.3 is still pointed out by consumers as a high price in the state of much lower than the European price. How to shape the unique selling point of the product has become a problem that the joint venture brands as latecomers need to consider collectively. Of course, through half a year's efforts, the Volkswagen ID. series has achieved a breakthrough in monthly sales of 10,000 vehicles, and its speed far exceeds the new forces that have taken many years to complete the same sales.
In this way, the brand influence of the joint venture brand will still become a weapon for it to compete for the electrification market. With the launch of more and more joint venture new energy products in 2022, this year may also become the first year for joint venture new energy to sound the clarion call of counterattack.
Mixed "cake" that no one can enjoy
It is worth noting that although in the ultimate goal of electrification development, car companies have a consensus of pure electric drive, but in the choice of fuel to pure electricity transition stage, different car companies have a huge deviation. This change is particularly evident between joint ventures and self-owned brands.
In 2020, the total sales volume of the domestic plug-in hybrid market was 201,000 vehicles, of which the sales of independent brands and joint venture brands each accounted for 50%. A year later, domestic plug-in hybrid sales soared to 545,000 units, and the sales of independent brands accounted for more than 80%.
Obviously, in the face of this incremental market with a 171% year-on-year growth rate, most joint venture brands have completely chosen to give up.
In 2021, Volkswagen, Audi and other brands have announced that they will completely abandon the research and development of internal combustion engine technology and turn to pure electric vehicle models. Jaguar, Volvo and other brands have directly announced the vision of a comprehensive transformation into a pure electric brand.
Toyota, Honda and other Japanese car companies, which eventually compromised with the plug-in hybrid and pure electric markets, also chose a pure electric route with lower research and development costs on the road to electrification. Although Honda and Toyota have the ability to innovate from oil-electric hybrid to plug-in hybrid, the long-term stagnation in the technical end and the exploration of fuel cells have made its control ability at the vehicle cost level lag far behind BYD. At present, in addition to Honda, which has laid out the plug-in hybrid market in advance, and Nissan, which is still strengthening the e-power range extender hybrid technology, most of the joint venture brands' new energy product planning is biased towards pure electric.
In contrast, the investment of independent brands in hybrid technology is increasing rapidly. In addition to the new forces and tail brands that lack self-research capabilities, the head independent brands led by BYD, Geely, Great Wall and Chery have greatly improved the strategic position of plug-in hybrid models. At present, BYD DM-i, Geely Raytheon, Great Wall DHT, chery Kunpeng have been applied in the products of corresponding brands. Although on the sales side, only BYD DM-i is extremely prominent, but when BYD fully opens up the demand for plug-in hybrid models in the mainstream market, there are not too many "new players" who can participate in dividing this new cake.
Take a look:
In 2022, China's new energy market is in the background of further subsidies. However, with the increasing maturity of the industry, the cost of previous inputs has been diluted by the growth of technology and the improvement of industrial scale, and most manufacturers have the ability to reduce or level the cost space of subsidies through cost reduction or leveling.
For the new energy automobile industry, which is still in the growth period, the outbreak of China's new energy market in 2021 means that consumers are gradually recognizing new energy models, and also symbolizes the beginning of the industry's electrification is entering a comprehensive transformation.
In the 14th Five-Year Plan, the mainland once again clarified the incubation and acceleration plan for strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles. In the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Technology Roadmap 2.0" officially released in March last year, the expert group agreed that "by 2035, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for 50% of the annual sales, and energy-saving vehicles should achieve full hybridization." ”
Undoubtedly, under the comprehensive promotion of the market and policies, the strong rise of the new energy track has lit up the green light for the new competition of car companies in the era of quantity preservation, and China's new energy vehicles are also expected to enter the full-stack development stage, leading the market from the current "spindle" structure to the "olive", which covers the economic to high-end products. It is not difficult to foresee that when the new forces of high-speed growth gradually run out of fuel, the strategic layout of new energy of traditional independent brands and joint venture brands is bound to become a booster to lead the new energy market into the next stage.
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