I believe that everyone has the experience of traffic jams every holiday. I thought it was more cars, but I found out all the way that more cars are not the focus, and more accidents are the focus! Disputes arising from accidents are the focus!
When there is monitoring or a driving recorder, it is better to determine responsibility, in case it is the kind of monitoring dead end or encountering extreme weather that leads to difficulties in obtaining evidence, that scene, it is really a public saying that the public is reasonable, no one feels that they should be held responsible, and there is already a long queue behind the kung fu of the mouth.
Can't cars have a system in place to help with accident analysis? There really is, and that's EDR.
Following the ETC and tire pressure monitoring, EDR has become another focus of automobile production - the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China issued the "Motor Vehicle Operation Safety Technical Conditions" National Standard No. 2 amendment list shows that from January 1 this year, newly produced passenger cars are mandatorily required to be equipped with EDR systems or DVRs (vehicle video driving recorders) that meet the regulations.
With the promulgation and implementation of relevant policies, the EDR sector has also gained high market attention, and today we will talk about EDR.
1. What is EDR?
EDR is known as Event Data Recorder, which is the automotive event data recording system. To put it in layman's terms, it is the "black box" assembled on the car.
The black boxes on cars, like the black boxes on airplanes, are used to record important data parameters for accident analysis. EDR mainly records the key operation data of the vehicle before, during and after the collision, including speed, ABS status, seat belt status, and in-vehicle recording and video.
That is to say, after the car accident, the data recorded by EDR can basically restore the entire accident process. For the driver, the situation in which both sides insist on each other without monitoring, or even deliberately falsify the accident to cheat insurance, will no longer occur; for the car company, if the cause of the accident is due to the failure of the car, it will become an irreputable fact; then for the traffic police, the difficulty of obtaining evidence due to extreme weather and other reasons will basically be solved accordingly.
Therefore, the requirement to force EDR may also be to better solve the problem of complications of accident causes and accident blame.
Second, the future growth space is large, is a new blue ocean
Flying Whale Investment Research believes that the future growth space of EDR is huge, or it will reach the volume of tens of billions. Why?
1. The overall penetration rate of Mainland EDR in passenger cars is low, and there is huge room for improvement
Previously, mainland EDR was mostly used in the commercial vehicle field, and the number of passenger cars was low. According to relevant data, in 2020, there will be about 1.36 million new EDR equipment in mainland China, with a penetration rate of only 7.12%, while the EDR penetration rate of new cars in the United States in 2019 has reached 99%.
Previously, among the domestic sales cars equipped with EDR, foreign-funded or joint venture high-end car series such as BBA and Lexus have been equipped, while the mainland's own brands have a lower capacity.
2. Benefiting from the development of intelligent networked vehicles, the application of EDR may become a just need
The electronic control system and automatic driving technology usually involved in intelligent networked vehicles are convenient for life at the same time, and their chips and algorithms are becoming more and more complex, which is likely to produce safety hazards such as vehicle system failure.
In the event of an accident, it will be difficult to determine whether it is man-made or machine-made, and in order to better reconstruct the accident and finalize responsibility, EDR will become an indispensable auto part. Brake failures like Tesla's previous ones were judged by the EDR on the vehicle.
3. This policy is similar to the 2019 ETC (Fully Automated Electronic Toll Collection System) section
Recalling the rush to install ETC in 2019, benefiting from the policy drive, when the market space opened up, the stock price of Wanji Technology directly rose by 6 times. The same is policy-driven, mandatory installation, EDR may also appear the next "Wanji technology".
4. Automobile production increases, and EDR demand continues to expand, or will reach 10 billion
In 2020, the mainland's annual automobile production and sales will be 25.311 million units; in 2021, the annual production is expected to reach 26 million units. According to Industrial Securities, the annual production and sales of automobiles in 2022 will be about 27 million units. As auto production continues to increase, demand for EDR will continue to rise.
According to the data of Tesla's official website in the United States, the price of EDR equipment is 1200 US dollars, equivalent to about 7600 yuan. Considering the cost advantages of domestic localization, combined with the price of ARMU-EDR independently developed by domestic Boer Technology of 1000 yuan, Flying Whale expects that the EDR price is about 1,000 yuan.
Ideally, if all new production vehicles are equipped with EDR in 2022, the scale of EDR will reach 27 billion. Since EDR and DVR are substitutes for each other from the current policy point of view, if it is conservatively estimated, assuming that the assembly rate of EDR is only 70%, there is also a market of about 18.9 billion.
Iii. What are the investment opportunities in the EDR industry chain?
Since the state has issued relevant regulations requiring mandatory EDR, a series of technical support is needed behind it, and many investment opportunities will be derived accordingly.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of EDR is mainly a supplier of parts, such as vehicle-level data processing chip companies, data storage chip suppliers, power management module companies, etc. Midstream is mainly product integration and assembly manufacturers, including product design integration manufacturers, airbag manufacturers, and Vehicle Networking terminal manufacturers. Downstream are major OEMs.
From the perspective of EDR structure, the EDR hardware part mainly includes MCU chips, memory, RF chips, DC-DC chips, passive components and sensing modules. Technically, EDR is mainly integrated into automotive airbags. And as mentioned earlier, at present, EDR is mostly assembled on commercial vehicles, and the amount of passenger cars is relatively small.
Therefore, Fei Whale believes that the main investment opportunities in the EDR industry chain include vehicle-grade MCU chip companies, automotive airbag manufacturers and some car networking related companies. In addition, commercial vehicle driving recorder suppliers such as Hongquan Internet of Things and Qiming Information are also expected to give priority to entering the passenger car supply chain with their own card slot advantages.
4. Summary
In general, smart cars have become the key development direction in the automotive field, and the state mandates that new cars be equipped with EDR represents the country's emphasis on driving safety, and will drive the development of the blue ocean market of EDR under the drive of policies. As the standard of new cars in the future, EDR will also drive the development of related industrial chains such as vehicle-grade MCU chips, sensors, and Internet of Vehicles. Combined with the mandatory installation tide of ETC in 2019, the EDR industry chain may also have the opportunity to release short-term pulse demand.
Finally, if all the cars in the future are really equipped with EDR, will you say "road rage" and "gasser dogs" will be much less?
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