Introduction: There is an Arabic proverb that says, "If you have not marched, look first at the way back." ”
I. The Battle of Yiling Liu Bei lost his bottom pants
In July 221, Liu Bei personally led tens of thousands of Shu Han troops to launch a large-scale war against the State of Wu in the name of Guan Yu's revenge. At that time, the Shu Han army was unstoppable down the river, passing through the pass and slashing generals, winning dozens of battles in Eastern Wu.
In fact, Eastern Wu had already set an active defensive policy of enticing the enemy to go deep, and the actual losses in a series of defeats were not large. However, Liu Bei thus stretched the battle line very long, stretching 700 miles from the White Emperor City to the Pavilion, and more importantly, it was easy to go down the river, and it was difficult to turn back once it encountered failure.
At that time, Huang Quan, a staff officer and general who was following Liu Bei, saw the problem and suggested to Liu Bei: "The water army in Jiangdong is brave and good at fighting, our army is advancing too fast, and it will be difficult to withdraw after the rear road is cut off." ”
However, Liu Bei had been traversing the battlefield for many years, and he did not take the young Lu Xun in his eyes and could not listen to his opinions. As a result, the company camp was burned by Lu Xun for 700 miles. This battle, the Shu Han army was close to total annihilation, and it was another major defeat of the Shu state after Guan Yu lost Jingzhou. Later, there was a saying that "there was no general in Shu, Liao became a forward" describing the scene of the serious shortage of talents in the Shu Han regime in the late Three Kingdoms period, and the most important reason for this phenomenon was that the Shu state lost Zhao Rong, Zhang Nan, Feng Xi, Fu Tong, Cheng Qi, Ma Liang, Sha Moke, Du Lu, Liu Ning, Huang Quan in the First World War of Yiling... Wait for a large number of rising stars.
Second, the Battle of Gangneung Xiahou Shang was lucky to escape
After the Battle of Yiling, Sun Quan used the power of great victory to turn his face with Cao Pi. Cao Pi was furious and launched a southern expedition that far exceeded the scale of the Battle of Guandu and the Battle of Chibi.
But unexpectedly, at the beginning, he encountered a hard bone, and in 223 AD, Cao Zhen led tens of thousands of troops and used various means to attack Jiangling for half a year, but he could not take it down for a long time. The Wei general Xiahou Shang led an army of 30,000 to seize the small island of Jiangxin in the upper reaches of Jiangling City, and built a pontoon bridge connecting the north and south banks, preparing to go down the river and directly attack Jiangling.
When the news reached the Wei court, the ministers generally believed that Jiangling was inevitable this time, and Cao Pi was also full of joy waiting for the good news from the front.
However, Dong Zhao did not think so, and he said to Cao Pi, "Emperor Wu (Cao Cao) used troops, and if he could not go deep alone, he must reserve a good retreat. Xiahou Shang garrisoned the island and divided his troops on the south bank, and the whole army relied on only a small pontoon bridge to advance and retreat. Now, the rainy season is approaching, once the river surges, or the pontoon bridge is broken, can Xiahou Shang still withdraw? ...... Survival is only afraid of the end of the day, look forward to Your Majesty's detailed investigation! ”
Cao Pi woke up after listening to the dream, and hurriedly issued a decree, strictly ordering Xiahou Shang to withdraw to Jiangbei.
And the development of things as Dong Zhao predicted, the Eastern Wu general Pan Zhang saw the Wei army building a pontoon bridge, and then led the army to the upstream 50 miles to cut down nearly a million bundles of reeds tied to the raft, planning to take advantage of the rise of the river to ignite the reeds to let it go down the river, then the Wei army's pontoon bridge will be burned in an instant, where the Wei army on the island is isolated, and the entire army will be destroyed.
However, before the Wu army attacked, Cao Pi's holy will had already arrived, and Xiahou Shang received the holy will and immediately ordered the withdrawal of the army, and Pan Zhang had to attack in advance when he saw the situation. Even so, the 30,000 Wei army was still defeated like a mountain, like a tide rushing to the pontoon bridge, a large number of soldiers were either killed or fell into the river and drowned, and Xiahou Shang only escaped with a small number of soldiers.
Just a few days later, the river suddenly swelled. Xiahou Shang shouted that if the Wu army launched a fire attack and there was a sea of fire on the pontoon bridge, he was only afraid that he would die on the battlefield. Cao Pi, who was far behind, also broke out in a cold sweat when he heard the battle report, praising Dong Zhao and saying, "How accurate and magical your strategy and vision are!" ”。
After the Battle of Yiling and Cao Pi's southern expedition, Sun Quan consolidated his territory, and the territory of the Three Kingdoms of Wei, Shu and Wu remained basically unchanged in the following decades, and it can be said that these two major battles finally laid the pattern of the Three Kingdoms. Looking back at these two major wars, the same is that at first the attacking side was invincible, and then the lone army went deep, and finally suffered a fiasco; the difference is that Liu Bei did not listen to Huang Quan's advice, and finally the whole army was destroyed, and Xiahou Shang heard Dong Zhao's advice and reduced his losses a little.
As we said in the first part of the Art of Investment and War, we should fight more and fight less, bully the small with the big, bully the weak, and do not start a war easily without the certainty of victory. However, in the actual operation process, this situation is almost non-existent, and in most cases it is evenly matched, and the probability of success is 50%. So, in this case, we have to prepare for the best and prepare for the worst. If your strength can't guarantee that you will win 100%, don't make a desperate bet, be sure to leave a way back for yourself.
Writing this, I think of an investment guru, Paul Tudor Jones. In China, Tudor Jones may not seem to be as well-known as Buffett and Soros, but he is actually one of the most successful investment gurus in history. He seems to have completely violated the law of gravity, created a profit record for 25 consecutive years, and created a miracle of more than 100% profit for 5 consecutive years.
But the master's path to success was not smooth, and in 1979 he was brave enough to suffer a major defeat, losing up to two-thirds. Since then, he has begun to strictly control risks, and the phrase that often hangs on his lips is "every day I assume that all my positions are wrong", so I must think about the back road before buying.