If at the power exchange conference on January 18, it is not the Ningde era that is preaching, but any car company today to talk about, then Volkswagen Toyota will be described as "following the trend" in public opinion, and the new force enterprise will be described as "PPT stock speculation", but the world's largest shipment of automobile power battery companies - Ningde times, the credibility will obviously be much higher.
The caterer era has finally come to the power exchange business, EVOGO lexing power exchange, but the current judgment conclusion on it is not necessarily a good thing for the Chinese automotive industry. Because, the chain of development logic behind it, the final landing result and the butterfly effect, there are countless possibilities.
There is no conflict between the rise in stock prices and the bundled car companies
The advantages of the power exchange industry can be seen by everyone, but the power exchange industry is not something that anyone can play, unless you can achieve the same shipment/market share/installed capacity as the Ningde era. In the past 2021, catheters accounted for more than 50% of the installed power battery capacity in the Chinese market, and the other 57 companies shared 48% of the share. The global power battery installed capacity market share is more than 30%, which is slightly lower than the second place LG and the third place Panasonic, which combined.
In other words, any car company that wants to develop new energy vehicles, whether in China or the world, can generally bypass the Ningde era, even because of cost, technology and other reasons, it will also put the Ningde era in the priority list. After all, if you want to find one that can support its stable supply and at the same time have the advantage of scale and cost, the Ningde era ranks first.
What does this have to do with power exchange?
Battery giants engaged in power exchange, innately can better complete the production capacity control, complete sufficient supply, to provide the lowest possible cooperation and product costs. Also because technological maturity can enhance trust, represent high safety standards, etc., better form cooperation with car companies, and drive the development of the industry.
Therefore, all the logic of the EVOGO brand on-site conference makes sense.
Vehicle-to-electricity separation, car companies develop / manufacture vehicles, Ningde era joint development of replaceable batteries; small and high energy, a single block energy capacity of 26.5kWh, energy density of 160Wh / Kg, a single battery endurance of about 200 km; small substation, occupying about 3 standard parking spaces, a single station can accommodate 48 power exchange blocks; a single block of power exchange time in about 1 minute, in order to exchange convenience / safety, the use of wireless BMS technology, to avoid a large number of plugs and removals after the uncertainty Through the mobile phone App, linkage and matching are formed between the power station and the power exchange block.
The above is the core information that NINGDE times gave you and me at the power exchange brand conference, in view of the fact that in addition to wireless BMS technology, there is no core essential innovation, coupled with the strength and market position of Ningde era itself and the extremely high market value, everything can be said to be in the past. In particular, the previous questions raised by the industry about the power exchange business can also be broken one by one.
For example, how to achieve profitability in power exchange, the taxi fleet of the US market trial power exchange, as long as the number of more than 100 units can offset the loss to generate revenue, obviously in the Ningde era and Besturn cooperation, 100 units is too good to meet;
For example, power exchange safety, Weilai has run in the market for so many years with a corresponding solution, the general logic of EVOGO is basically the same as Weilai, coupled with the concept of wireless BMS, further de-physicalization, can indeed reduce the risk accordingly, but also improve the instability of use;
And, because it was the Ningde era that carried out standardized development/production/matching, there was no problem such as the previous specifications were not unified.
It can be said that the addition of EVOGO can most likely promote the gameplay of new energy vehicles. Because the previous car companies were resistant to the huge amount of investment that may not necessarily bring certain returns, the operation of the Ningde era obviously gave new possibilities. And combined with the current trend, the price of lithium-containing raw materials for power batteries continues to rise, and the cost price of power batteries continues to rise, which also gives the Ningde era a better way to make profits, with a fixed lithium content and property rights belong to themselves, and constantly create recyclable income.
Therefore, there is also a continuous rise in the stock price in front of the moment, and the Ningde era shouts out to all car companies in the whole industry:
"If you also want to play with electricity at low cost, whether you have technical reserves or not, you can come to me."
The matter of tying up the car company is naturally willing to be beaten
Everything has two sides, and the same is true of EVOGO in the Ningde era. Leaving aside for the time being who will be the target customer of the Ningde era, all the car companies that want to save the cost of power batteries, all the car companies that want to enter the power replacement business, and all the car companies that do not have advanced technology reserves can chat with the Ningde era.
For example, seeing the current power battery price soaring, and the new car-making forces that can't burn /burn itself, you can chat with the Ningde era about the next game. The new forces rely on software to make profits, and the Ningde era relies on power exchange to make profits, and there is no conflict with each other.
For example, a series of joint venture brands that want to develop new energy vehicles have directly found a complete set of solutions.
For example, weak car companies that have no advanced technology reserves (essentially, no money, no one, no sales) are also grabbing a lot.
As for how to talk about cooperation with the Ningde era, it is naturally different according to the strength/weakness of the enterprise, the strong car companies are reluctant to hand over their core technologies, and the weak car companies do not have their own core advanced technology.
As for where the two sides of EVOGO are, the landing point is naturally the experience/software. Note that the experience is not a simple user power exchange experience, but also includes the enterprise experience, and the subsequent development of car companies, and even the automotive industry. Software, of course, is the underlying algorithm, including the potential for reasonable adjustment after subsequent scale growth.
First of all, the experience, from the current cooperation between EVOGO and Pentium NAT to cut into the market, what the Ningde era is thinking about is to promote from the B-end business. The advanced military travel market, with vehicles as a means of livelihood, is relatively low in sensitivity to C-end individual users who pay attention to experience, which has been verified by the market. Because the travel market is a strong and weak asymmetrical posture, vehicle users do not pay attention to property rights as a profit tool, and the corresponding price has no room for negotiation. From this level alone, EVOGO can be promoted, but the pain point is how to complete the infrastructure construction of the Ningde era, although the space it occupies is 3 standard parking spaces, but combined with user parking, battery transportation, production allocation, land prices, etc., there are many ice-breaking needs in the Ningde era, and there is no absolute direct relationship with the sufficient funds in hand.
For example, in the Beijing market, because of the use of BAIC BJEV's taxi models, it is constantly promoting the power exchange business, but the problem exposed is that most of the substations can only be built around the city (due to consumable assets/profit pressure, etc.), and the convenience is poor. And despite the financial subsidies related to taxis, the operating pressure is still very large, and there have been problems of uncontested increases in electricity replacement service fees. Given the identities of EVOGO and Pentol, how the two allocate assets under supervision is of course a big problem.
In the C-end market, looking at the corresponding problems, the conclusions obtained are more difficult than those on the B side. It is conceivable that EVOGO will enter the ordinary consumer business in the future, and when the number of replacement vehicles increases, how to allocate rationality is the key issue.
Taking WEILAI Automobile as an example, the number of replacement power stations in the Chinese market has exceeded 777, and it can be observed by opening the Weilai App that there are a large number of substations in Beijing, and the original first-generation substations are constantly upgrading to more efficient substations. The current number of users of Weilai has just exceeded 100,000 units, and the experience that can be obtained is still in a state of further upgrading and optimization, and after the Ningde era has reached cooperation with models with lower prices (more critical), how to complete a good match in the core area is naturally extremely difficult. Of course, it is possible to play a combination of "fast charging, slow charging, and power replacement" through car companies, but the convenience and use experience are questionable.
Because, at present, the industry's best Weilai, in the 2021 Spring Festival holiday (the number of people is low) I and Weilai ES6 experience, in the premise of choosing a relatively cheap power station, there are still occasionally more than 30 minutes to wait at the station.
As for what experience car companies will have in it, they will be constrained in decision-making because of the sharing of product property rights (battery property rights) in the Ningde era. For enterprise management, this means that it is contrary to the development of advanced enterprises, and the current model of advanced enterprises is, "flexible changes in response to market changes, strengthening centralization at the same time, so that enterprises can achieve rapid pandering", and then passing the barrier of the Ningde era is full of new uncertainties.
Another core pain point is software capabilities, covering core algorithms, covering data operations, covering AI, EVOGO is facing a situation that it is neither a related Internet company, nor a relatively mature solution in the industry. The logic is very simple, no one in the previous power exchange market is playing, Weilai's core algorithm and data operation are saved and optimized little by little, and taxis can not be particularly concerned about rationality.
The cooperation between CATL and Pentium NAT can naturally be seen that it is ready to accumulate data and accumulate algorithms from the B-end business, but the variables in it are huge. Including, whether the core algorithm can be found, the correctness of the core algorithm, the potential of the core algorithm, the ability of data operation, etc. Everything is relatively virtual. Among them, there are still variables such as battery technology progress, as a battery giant, the Ningde era can naturally apply new technology batteries, but one of the differences between them is how its business logic should be deeply transformed.
Write at the end:
In the final analysis, the current EVOGO is in the stage of telling the story clearly, what is the general logic and what can be achieved, so as to attract the attention of the capital market, car companies, and the automotive industry to promote new cooperation and development.
However, the problems it needs to face are also very obvious. Just like Huawei is doing now, cross-border giants can bring corresponding solutions to share the core of car companies, and how to reconcile the contradictions in the middle is not easy.
Because, the matter of sharing benefits depends on the reciprocal relationship between the two sides, which is naturally possible for weak enterprises, but it is a fundamental problem for enterprises of the same level.