Can the Ningde era of entering the power exchange unify the rivers and lakes?

A few days ago, the Ningde era (300750. SZ) under the era of electric clothing officially released the power exchange brand EVOGO, and provided a set of set of power exchange block, quick change station, APP in one of the combination of power exchange solution.

Before this online conference was held, the official public account of CATL has pushed the countdown to brand release for three consecutive days, and it is not difficult to see the importance that CATL attaches to EVOGO.

In the official promotional film, Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of the Ningde era, also personally endorsed the "chocolate for electricity block", which was regarded as an "Easter egg" broadcast by the Ningde era.

It is said that this combination of power exchange schemes will point to all car companies, and the release of the EVOGO brand means that the Ningde era officially enters the power exchange market.

Reasonable power exchange

In fact, the Ningde era has long revealed its ambition to enter the power exchange market.

In July 2020, CATL joined hands with Futian Zhilan New Energy to take the lead in testing water for heavy trucks, becoming the first commercial application scenario for heavy trucks. In August, CATL and Weilai Automobile, which had adhered to the power exchange model at the beginning, jointly invested in the establishment of Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd., and launched battery rental services on this basis.

By 2021, CATL will go further, and in the strategic cooperation agreement with Foton Motor's new energy brand, in addition to the landing and application of new energy commercial vehicle products and leasing models, battery banks and substations will also be included in the scope of cooperation. In August, CATL established the Times Electric Service Subsidiary, as the bearer of the power exchange business, and later established a regional power exchange business company in Jilin Province, whose business scope includes the sale of power exchange facilities and battery leasing.

Zeng Yuqun once said that "power exchange and fast charging are better than hydrogen energy in terms of economy and maturity." This statement, coupled with a series of layouts, can support the cake of the electricity exchange market, which is to be eaten in the Ningde era and is inevitable.

Regardless of why the Ningde era was replaced at the beginning, choosing to release the replacement brand at this time, the easiest association in front of you is related to the weather.

Since the beginning of winter, the ridicule about "electric daddy" has been incessant, and the owners of electric vehicles in the north are miserable. Electric vehicle winter endurance 50% off, in order to run a few more kilometers, the owner of the car sits in the car without heating on a cold day, full of thoughts are charging piles. Charging under low temperature conditions will cause irreversible damage to the battery, and even induce problems such as short circuit and spontaneous combustion.

At the press conference, Chen Weifeng, general manager of Times Electric Service, said that the Ningde Times power exchange program is to solve these pain points. According to its introduction, a single "chocolate power exchange block" can provide 200 kilometers of endurance, a single block power exchange only takes 1 minute, and the owner can also choose one or more batteries according to different mileage needs.

For car companies, the unification of power exchange standards is conducive to reducing the cost of automobile development and adaptation; for consumers, the combination of battery banking and battery rental services helps to reduce the cost of personal car purchase and use.

At the moment when the charging drawbacks are exposed and the battery life anxiety is swept away, the emergence of the power exchange program in the Ningde era can be described as timely, and all participants seem to benefit from it.

Time, place, people

As a new electric vehicle energy replenishment scheme, the power exchange mode is not a new thing. In fact, the power exchange was once encouraged by the policy, but because the market has not been opened for a long time, it is ultimately a flash in the pan and has become the current energy replenishment mode based on charging.

In 2013, Tesla optimized the chassis power exchange technology to shorten the power exchange time to 90 seconds, but in the end, due to the low operational efficiency of the substation, the special-shaped battery could not be shared across the model and other fatal defects, and chose to give up, and instead developed super charging pile technology.

Weilai, which chose to face the difficulties, has accumulated 777 power exchange stations since the actual operation of the power exchange service in 2018 to the end of 2021, and it is said that more than 70,000 users have unlocked the power exchange experience. However, NIO is still stuck in the stage of using power replacement as a value-added service in exchange for operational efficiency, and the return is difficult to cover the cost, and it is far from achieving profitability.

The shift comes from the market. From 2013 to the end of 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland increased from 0.08% to 22.6%, at the same time, the ratio of vehicles to piles has declined, and the new construction speed of charging piles is slightly slower than the sales of new energy vehicles, and the imbalance between supply and demand is.

In this case, the policy is once again tilted towards power exchange. In 2020, the power exchange was written into the government work report for the first time, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology listed the power station as an important part of the "new infrastructure".

Founder Securities expects that by 2025, the sales volume of electric passenger cars will exceed 2.8 million, the demand for supporting substations will be about 28,000 seats, the demand for supporting batteries will be about 55GWh, and the total scale of the industrial chain will be about 332.1 billion. As industry standards become more standardized, lithium iron phosphate is expected to become the main battery route in the future, which is undoubtedly in line with the technical advantages of the Ningde era.

In addition, the number of cooperative car companies in the Ningde era has solved the problem of difficult integration of car companies' resources faced by power exchange.

From January to June 2021, among the more than 2,400 models in the effective catalogue of new energy models released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are more than 1,200 models supporting power batteries in the Ningde era, accounting for about 50%, which is the battery manufacturer with the most supporting models. Among the cooperative car companies, Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and other leading new power brands rank at the forefront of the installed capacity of the Ningde era.

From this point of view, the time, place, people, and ningde era seem to have been exhausted.

Car companies that become successes, car companies that fail

Everything is so logical, as if the Ningde era only needs to wait for the harvest, but in the real market competition, business logic is often changing rapidly, and there is never a lack of "unexpected".

It is pointed out that the rapid development of the power exchange industry is the first to benefit from power battery manufacturers. The separation of vehicle electricity means that one car and one battery will become a car of multiple batteries, and the power battery will usher in incremental demand on top of the original demand.

According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2021, China's power battery installed vehicles accumulated 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year, of which the installed capacity of The Ningde Era was 80.51GWh, with a market share of 52.1%.

However, in the face of fierce market competition, even if the Ningde era, which occupies half of the domestic power battery market, does not dare to take it lightly, and if it is not careful, it is difficult to protect its position. What's more, this pressure comes not only from domestic and foreign counterparts, but also from the automotive OEMs that cooperate with them.

Whether it is for the sake of production capacity or bargaining power, in the face of the strong Ningde era, car companies have adopted the B plan of cooperation with a number of battery suppliers at the same time, such as the introduction of AVIC lithium battery Xiaopeng; what is more, it has already laid out its own power battery industry, such as Great Wall Motors' Honeycomb Energy, whose battery production capacity is expected to reach 600GWh in 2025, which is comparable to the Ningde era.

Nowadays, the Ningde era has launched a replacement electronic brand, optimistically, the bundled combination of batteries and power exchange solutions may "save" the hearts of some car companies and consolidate their "one brother" status.

Chen Weifeng, general manager of Times Electric Service, called on more partners to join The image source: Ningde Times

Lin Xi, deputy secretary-general of the Intelligent NetworkIng Professional Committee of the China Communications Industry Association, told Yinxi Finance, "The layout of the power exchange market can further consolidate the monopoly position in the battery market in the Ningde era." Lin Xi pointed out, "The Ningde era has the ability to standardize the replacement battery. ”

It is reported that the "electric vehicle power battery product specification size" stipulates as many as 145 kinds of battery models, different models and different power exchange methods, but also cause battery modules and specifications and models to vary.

At present, the batteries provided by CATL to car companies are mainly 811 ternary batteries and 523 lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are likely to promote the establishment of standards with their market share and the boost of partners.

Lin Xi said that if the Ningde era determines a set of power exchange standards, all car companies are in accordance with its standards to purchase its batteries, naturally will form a set of systems, "now the biggest challenge depends on whether car companies are willing to buy it."

Regardless of the fact that some models do not support power replacement since the beginning of the design, even if they support the replacement of power companies, most of them are "independent". Taking Weilai, which currently has a better development of power exchange, as an example, it has both sales and word of mouth, why give up its own hard-fought Jiangshan and devote itself to the power exchange system of the Ningde era?

In the previous battery game with the Ningde era, some car companies have realized that the excessive intensity of the Ningde era will not be conducive to their own development. Batteries, which account for 40% of the cost of the vehicle, also force car companies to rush to get rid of supplier constraints and strive to master the core technology in their own hands.

Since you want to "escape", why should you turn back?

At present, there is only one member of the "Little Green Ring Family" officially announced by the Ningde era, and how many new energy vehicles can be covered by the 80% of the adaptation in its mouth, and can the Strong Ningde Era sweep through thousands of armies and unify the rivers and lakes as expected? The results are still unknown.