At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the lithium battery plate suffered a wave of correction. Since the beginning of December, the lithium battery index has retraced by more than 22%.
No one questions the future prospects of new energy vehicles, lithium battery stocks have encountered a pullback, nothing more than the previous rally is too fierce, overdrafted future performance, plate high and low switching, now need to kill the valuation.
However, the lithium battery industry chain led by the Ningde era is indeed only the first journey of the long-slope thick snow track of new energy. The explosion logic of lithium battery stocks is the energy substitution logic of new energy vehicles. And new energy vehicles are not only energy substitution this imaginary space, just like smart phones are not only a competition of hardware, the competition of software such as operating systems is even more important, and intelligence is the next journey of new energy vehicles.
In the A-share, the automotive intelligent parts manufacturer Desay SV is a pig that steps on the new energy intelligent outlet. Over the past year, Desay SV has grown by more than 100% and now has a total market capitalization of more than $76 billion.
Yesterday, the company released the 2021 performance forecast, is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of 8021 to 850 million yuan, an increase of 54% to 64% over the same period last year; the median is 825 million yuan, an increase of 59.22% year-on-year; it is expected to deduct non-net profit of 785 to 835 million yuan, an increase of 69.88% to 80.70% year-on-year, and the median is 810 million yuan, an increase of 75.29% year-on-year.
This performance forecast of Desay SV exceeded the expectations of many brokers. However, Desay SV's stock price today quickly dived after the opening rally, falling 1.93% to 137 yuan / share by the close.
01
The market picked up
As an auto parts manufacturer, Desay SV's performance is closely related to car sales. The company's current business can be divided into three major blocks, namely intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving and intelligent networking. Among them, the smart cockpit business accounted for the highest proportion of total revenue, accounting for 81.8% as of the first half of last year. This business can be subdivided into in-car entertainment systems, in-vehicle air conditioning controllers and other businesses.
Judging from desay SV's main products and customers, its customers are not only traditional car companies such as FAW-Volkswagen, Geely and Great Wall, but also new forces such as Xiaopeng, Ideal and Weilai.
According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the cumulative production and sales of generalized passenger cars were 19.1374 million units and 18.8715 million units, respectively, down 10.8% and 7.9% year-on-year. Among them, domestic generalized passenger car sales in November were 1.9662 million units, down 4.2% year-on-year, and have fallen for the fifth consecutive month.
Last year, the total sales of domestic passenger cars continued to decline, not only due to the impact of weak consumption and other factors, but also due to the repeated epidemic and the lack of cores caused by the instability of the supply chain.
However, thanks to the outbreak of new energy vehicles last year, the company's revenue in the first three quarters increased by 46.65% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 54.36% year-on-year. Today, Desay SV's annual performance forecast last year, whether it is revenue growth rate or attributable net profit growth rate, is significantly higher than the first three quarters of last year, which is related to the fourth quarter of last year, the lack of core in the entire automotive industry has been alleviated.
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in the fourth quarter of last year, the wholesale volume of domestic narrow passenger cars fell by 3.61% year-on-year, compared with the 12.67% decline in the third quarter, which was significantly narrowed.
The impact of the lack of core gradually faded, and the sales of Desay SV's three major traditional car companies FAW-Volkswagen, Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motors increased by 71.3%, 39.3% and 49.3% respectively. At the same time, the sales of new car-making forces such as Wei Xiaoli continued to increase significantly, with Xiaopeng increasing by 222% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, Weilai increasing by 111% year-on-year, and ideally increasing by 143.5% year-on-year.
02
Highlights for this year
Last year, Desay SV's performance grew well, on the one hand, because of the outbreak of new energy vehicle sales, on the other hand, because the lack of core in the fourth quarter was alleviated, which promoted the sales of domestic passenger cars, whether traditional cars or new forces. In this way, if Desay SV wants to continue to achieve higher growth in performance this year, the growth of domestic passenger car sales is an indispensable part.
The growth of passenger car sales is mainly to see whether the lack of core will continue this year, and whether new energy vehicles can continue to maintain a high growth trend this year.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the lack of cores has been alleviated. Previously, some automotive executives and industry insiders believed that the lack of cores or will be alleviated this year, but there are also views that the lack of cores will continue until 2023.
However, this year,300, the new mutant virus, Omikejong, is coming at a menacing force and spreading around the world at a faster rate. According to the World Health Organization, in the first week of this year, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide increased by 71%. Chip tensions are expected to persist in the first quarter.
In terms of new energy passenger vehicles, due to the low base in 2020, sales increased rapidly last year, and it is more difficult to obtain last year's year-on-year growth rate this year. Especially starting from January 1 this year, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of last year, and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will officially expire on December 31 this year, and the sales of new energy vehicles may be stimulated before the subsidy expires at the end of this year.
Overall, according to last year's third quarter report, Desay SV's contractual liabilities increased by 377% compared with the same period last year. This also means that the company's order volume is relatively sufficient this year.
In addition, Desay SV's intelligent driving business is also expected to increase this year. Previously, Desay SV's main source of revenue and profit was the Smart Cockpit business. With the advancement of new energy vehicle intelligence, the intelligent driving business may become a new highlight of the company's growth this year.
In 2016, Desay SV entered the ADAS product market and now has four intelligent driving product lines from IPU01 to IPU04. Among them, IPU03 is supplied to Xiaopeng Automobile and achieves mass production. The company's new IPU04 won the order for the ideal car in October last year and plans to achieve mass production this year.
In the intelligent driving business, Desay SV is one of NVIDIA's five major partners in the world, and its IPU03 developed based on Nvidia Xavier chip and IPU04 developed by NVIDIA Orin X have greater advantages over domestic manufacturers.
However, whether it is the intelligent cockpit business or the intelligent driving business, foreign manufacturers such as Bosch and Visteon still occupy the main market share. Desay SV's growth also means facing competition from these strong foreign players.