With the time to enter 2022, the domestic automobile market has quietly undergone some changes, including the full liberalization of the joint venture share ratio, and the decline of domestic new energy vehicle subsidies by 30% in 2022... All of this seems to indicate that in the next few years, the domestic auto market may undergo great "changes", joint venture brands and independent brands stand at the crossroads of new energy, where to go, may not only be the head of the car company need to consider the problem! For new energy vehicles, from the beginning of a few years of large subsidies, this year's 30% subsidies declined, to this year after no subsidies, where will the domestic new energy vehicle market go, is also a very noteworthy problem!
It is clear that after 2022, there will be no new energy vehicle subsidies in China, and new energy vehicles, especially the majority of pure electric models, will compete with fuel stations on the same rule starting line. Under such a premise, we are very concerned about a question, that is, from 2020 to the present, the vigorous development of the domestic new energy vehicle market, will we press the "pause button" after one year? Or, in 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 20%, and after the great decline of new energy subsidies until it is completely cancelled after one year, will there be a slowdown or even negative growth?
In fact, through the operation of the new energy vehicle market in 2021, the new energy subsidies have declined sharply, or even completely cancelled, which has no impact on more than 300,000 high-end models, of course, it will not affect its continued volume! In the past, many new energy vehicles in China that have lost the qualification of new energy subsidies have continued to maintain a relatively strong growth trend. For example, ideal ONE, as a domestic new energy vehicle with monthly sales of more than 300,000 new energy vehicles, will sell 90,000 units in 2021, of which December sales will reach 14,000 units! The situation of Weilai Automobile is similar, because the cheapest price of Weilai Automobile's products is more than 320,000 yuan, but the sales volume in 2021 is still much higher than that of 2020, and 91,400 new cars were delivered in the whole year, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year.
Judging from the performance of Weilai and Ideal, two main high-end new energy vehicles with more than 300,000 in 2021, it is basically certain that if there is no problem at the product level, or if it still maintains a trend of continuous progress, such models can still maintain relatively good market performance! So from this point of view, it seems that the new energy subsidy decline or even cancellation, the impact on the new energy automobile industry is not large!
But we need to consider another problem, that is, the price range of more than 300,000 is basically a mid-to-high-end model, which is beyond doubt, no one can say that more than 300,000 models are still cheap cars! In fact, in the price range of more than 200,000, potential car owners are not so "sensitive" to the small fluctuations in product prices, that is, there is no price reduction after subsidies, and the impact on their car purchase decisions is not very large! Because for many new energy car owners at this price point, the experience may be greater than what is just needed, and even many people have more than one car, so the new energy vehicle subsidy, to a large extent, is difficult to affect the decision of consumers in the price range of more than 300,000!
However, for new energy vehicles below 300,000, especially in the price range of 100,000-200,000, the subsidy decline or even cancellation may still have a certain impact, because for consumers at this price point, most people buy new cars are just needed, although it is not the kind of just need that cannot survive without it, but it is an indispensable travel equipment. Then in such a case, after the subsidy for new energy vehicles declines or even is completely cancelled, the price of some corresponding models may inevitably rise, and in fact, the rising part is entirely possible to affect the consumer's willingness to buy a car, unless there is no choice! Because for consumers at this price point, the price of the product may still be more "sensitive"!
And we also have to see another "auxiliary" factor, that is, at the end of 2021, many insurance companies suddenly rose the commercial insurance costs for new energy, and the overall increase is still very large, if the new energy subsidies decline until the cancellation, and the sharp rise in commercial insurance only one of them, for many consumers, may be reluctantly acceptable, but the two are superimposed together, may be for some more price-sensitive consumers, will reconsider whether to choose new energy vehicles, Especially pure electric models, because the premium rises, it will not come down for a while and a half. For many consumers outside the purchase restriction area, the purchase of new energy vehicles at this price point, mainly to save money, now not only do not save money, but also may spend more money, the key is to winter, many electric vehicles have a sharp reduction in battery life, for families with only one car, the winter experience is too poor, then in this case, choose a 10-200,000 fuel car, obviously more rational!
So in fact, the new energy subsidies in 2022 a sharp decline until a year later completely canceled, the impact on the new energy vehicle market may be staged, for high-end electric vehicles, the impact may be minimal, or even completely absent; and for just need users, after the subsidy cancellation, if the vehicle price and insurance costs have risen, then it is likely that some consumers will give up buying electric vehicles! Of course, if because of the fierce competition in the new energy vehicle market, manufacturers choose to bear the price difference caused by the decline of new energy subsidies or even the complete cancellation, then for consumers, they may still be willing to continue to buy new energy vehicle products, and for the new energy vehicle market, there will be no big fluctuations.
In the past one or two years, high-end new energy vehicles, including Tesla Model 3 and Model 3, have formed the "background" of domestic new energy vehicles, that is, there seems to be no subsidies, and there seems to be no big impact on new energy vehicles, because many buyers of electric vehicles are not very sensitive to price increases and decreases within a certain range, and the number of this part of the population is very large! However, the cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles will eventually be oriented to the broadest consumers, that is to say, the market share of new energy vehicles in the future may reach half or more, especially the price range of 100,000-200,000 yuan, this quantity base is very large, then in this case, we believe that the decline of new energy subsidies will still have an impact on the entire market, if manufacturers do not bear the price difference!