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In 2021, Tesla's stock price rose by 49.7%, ranking only fourth, and the old car companies became big winners! Can new energy vehicle stocks still enter in 2022? BYD or won the domestic new energy vehicle sales championship, can it surpass Tesla in 2022? >>
By Nicole
2021 has come to an end, and the car market this year is still exciting. Tesla is still a regular customer of the headlines of major media, but there are also many upstarts who often steal tesla's limelight. For example, new energy car companies such as Rivian and Lucid, known as the "Tesla Killer", joined the capital market war; Ford showed its ambition for electric vehicles, and the annual stock price increase threw Tesla away.
In addition to the capital war, the delivery volume of new energy vehicle companies is also a lot of highlights. Tesla's global deliveries reached 936,200 units last year, an increase of 87.2% year-on-year; BYD's annual sales of 600,000 vehicles are expected to surpass Tesla's sales in the domestic new energy vehicle market; "Wei Xiaoli" is one step away from 100,000 annual sales... However, although 2021 is known as the "first year of new energy vehicles", domestic car companies will face many tests in the future, such as subsidy decline and lack of core tests.
What are the results of each car company in 2021? How will the market develop in 2022? This article takes stock of the global car company's market value, stock price performance and some new energy car companies' annual sales of three report cards, let's take a look at it
Market capitalization report card: Tesla leads without suspense, Rivian, Lucid to "spoil"
From the market value list, among the top 20 car companies with market capitalization, new energy vehicle companies have strongly occupied 10 seats (see the green box in the figure above), of which Tesla continued to sit firmly on the throne of the first market value after surpassing Toyota's market value last year, and this year's leading edge has further expanded.
Last year's new "spoilers" are also many, Rivian, Lucid high-profile into the car company capital bureau, Rivian is menacing, after the listing in November for several days, the market value once broke through the 100 billion US dollar mark, as of the end of the year, the market value of more than 90 billion US dollars.
Although Weilai Automobile continues to lead, its market value has shrunk significantly, and Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile are approaching the market value of Weilai, and the three patterns may change further in 2022.
02
Report card of increase: Tesla is not the first! Ford's nearly 140 percent annual gain shocked the market
From the perspective of the list of increases, the highest annual increase is the Indian veteran car company Tata Motors, which led the way with an annual increase of 154.68%; the second place is the veteran car company Ford Motor, which beat Tesla and GM with an annual increase of 137.48%, which surprised the market. Last December, Ford Motor CEO said it had ambitions to surpass GM and then Tesla in the U.S. electric car field.
03
New energy vehicle sales report card: Tesla sold out throughout the year!
In terms of segmentation, in terms of delivery volume, the number of deliveries of new energy vehicle companies has always been a hot topic of market concern. And this year's car companies handed over a gratifying report card: Tesla sold explosively throughout the year, Q4 delivery hit a record high; BYD new energy vehicle delivery soared year-on-year; "Wei Xiaoli" sprinted together to sell 100,000 mark per year!
1, Tesla sold out all year round! Q4 deliveries hit an all-time high
Tesla's 2021 deliveries were impressive, with no suspense to win the global sales championship, especially in the fourth quarter, when deliveries exceeded 300,000 units, a record high, much higher than the average sales of 263,000 vehicles expected by analysts. Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said it was an "amazing performance" at the end of the year that gave Tesla a "huge boost" in 2022.
Jeffrey Osborne, an analyst at investment bank Cowen, expects 2022 to be a pivotal year for Tesla as competition from incumbents and start-ups becomes increasingly fierce. ”
2, the big explosion! BYD was promoted to the king of new energy vehicle delivery
In 2021, BYD's new energy vehicles exploded, and the cumulative sales of BYD new energy passenger vehicles reached 593,700 units in the whole year, an increase of 231.6% year-on-year.
Anxin Securities commented on BYD's latest performance, saying that IND is expected to rise in volume and price in 2022, speculating that BYD's sales of new energy passenger cars in 2022 are expected to exceed 1.4 million, an increase of more than 130% year-on-year. At the same time, in the case of a significant increase in BYD's sales in 2022, bicycle profits are expected to increase significantly.
3. "Wei Xiaoli" sprints together to the annual sales mark of 100,000, and in 2022, it may be more tested
In 2021, "Wei Xiaoli" handed over a report card of substantial growth, with annual deliveries exceeding 90,000 vehicles. However, the delivery volume of Weilai, which has been far ahead in the "car-making three treasures", has been surpassed by Xiaopeng. Nio's deliveries in October last year were only 3,667 units, driving down the total number of deliveries for the whole year.
However, while the delivery volume of "Wei Xiaoli" has increased significantly, it cannot be ignored that there are more and more entrants in the market, such as Nezha and Zero Run. In the whole year of 2021, Nezha Automobile delivered a total of 69,674 new cars, an increase of 362% year-on-year. In addition, last year, some traditional car companies and Internet companies built new energy vehicles have also been launched.
The agency believes that in 2022, for the head new energy vehicle companies represented by Wei Xiaoli, the competition will only become more and more intense.
04
Outlook for 2022: Will BYD surpass Tesla? Can new energy vehicle stocks still enter?
1. BYD is supported by Citi, can it surpass Tesla in 2022?
Citibank predicted in 2021 that BYD's sales would surpass Tesla's in 2023. For the whole of 2021, BYD's sales are still 200,000 vehicles different from Tesla's.
Citi said in its latest research report that due to BYD's backlog of orders in December last year, the uninvoded volume exceeded 200,000 units, and it is expected that sales and production in January will continue to improve month-on-month, raising its new energy vehicle sales forecast from 2022 to 2024 to 1.3 million, 1.75 million and 2 million units, respectively. In addition, Citi's valuation rate for BYD is almost the same as Tesla's.
However, according to Damo analysts, tesla will have an annual production capacity of more than 1.8 million units in 2022, including the output of the Berlin factory.
Image source: BYD's official website
2, the competition is intensifying! Can new energy vehicle stocks still be invested this year?
Investors who enter the new energy vehicle in 2021 may mostly make a lot of profits, so can they still enter in 2022?
This year for the rapid expansion of new energy vehicle companies or a more fierce competition year, the current new energy vehicle companies are facing a lot of tests, or have a certain impact on the company's stock price:
1) Subsidy decline
According to the previous documents, in the last year of the new energy vehicle subsidy in 2022, the subsidy standard will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022.
Many car companies have taken action on the "subsidy decline", and some analysts believe that the subsidy decline will weaken consumers' willingness to buy. However, CITIC Securities Research Report said that the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles is in line with expectations, and the high prosperity of the industry will continue.
2) The "missing core" pressure still exists
Lack of core is a problem that new energy vehicle manufacturers have continued to face this year, and Weilai's previous delivery volume is also related to the lack of core. Industry insiders said that it is expected that by the second half of 2022, the shortage of cores in the new energy vehicle market and the shortage of lithium batteries will be alleviated.
-end-
The above does not represent the position of China Renaissance and does not constitute any investment advice related to China Renaissance. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors associated with the investment product according to their own circumstances and consult a professional if necessary.
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