Sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks soared by 668%! New energy commercial vehicles have entered the fast lane of development

The new energy heavy truck market is getting hotter and hotter. According to the data, in November 2021, the cumulative sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks were 1852, a year-on-year increase of 668%, and it has stood at the sales mark of thousands of vehicles for 3 consecutive months, and the monthly sales record has been refreshed again. Looking at the annual data, as of November 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks were 7442 vehicles, an increase of 222% year-on-year.

There is no doubt that under the guidance of the "double carbon" strategy, new energy commercial vehicles have entered the "fast lane" of development, and upstream and downstream enterprises are expected to usher in new opportunities for development.

Under the "double carbon" goal, the new energy of heavy trucks is the trend of the times

In order to implement the "double carbon" policy, on October 24, the State Council issued the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking by 2030. According to the program plan, the state will vigorously promote the low-carbon transformation of transportation tools and equipment, vigorously promote electric power, hydrogen fuel, and liquefied natural gas-powered heavy freight vehicles, and build a green and efficient transportation system.

Under the guidance of the plan, the carbon reduction of road transport has become a key link. According to statistics, China's commercial vehicle ownership accounts for only 10.9% of all car ownership, but it produces 56% of road traffic carbon emissions. Under the trend that new energy has become an irreversible global development trend, heavy-duty truck OEMs must accelerate the layout, improve power efficiency, and contribute to the "double carbon" goal.

The market generally believes that 2021 is the "year of change for commercial vehicles". The elimination of heavy trucks in the third standard of The country will be accelerated within the year, the standard of the fifth country will be limited, and the standard of the sixth country will be accelerated. Recently, China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 12 central departments and 7 provinces and cities jointly issued the "2021-2022 Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Control Plan", which aims to completely eliminate the National III standard heavy trucks within the year. The environmental governance work will eliminate about 300,000 national triple trucks, and part of the released market share will flow to new energy heavy trucks.

It is reported that new energy heavy trucks have significant advantages in application scenarios such as short- and medium-distance transportation, engineering construction or urban passage, and fuel consumption and cost are lower. At the same time, high-energy-consuming enterprises have the pressure to reduce carbon emissions and meet environmental protection requirements, and factories have carbon emission indicators in every link, so the use of zero-emission new energy heavy trucks has become the best choice.

At present, the number of heavy-duty trucks in the Chinese market exceeds 8.5 million, while the number of electric heavy-duty trucks is just over 12,000. Assuming that 20% of the current traditional heavy trucks can be replaced by new energy heavy trucks, the number of new energy heavy trucks in the country will reach 1.7 million. The field of new energy electric heavy trucks has a huge growth potential of more than 100 times.

The market structure of OEMs will be reconstructed

Following the passenger car, the electrification and intelligence of heavy trucks have entered a stage of rapid development, especially electric heavy trucks have become the core factor driving the growth of new energy heavy trucks. Judging from the market data in 2021, the sales ranking of the electric heavy-duty truck market subverts the inherent competitive pattern formed by the traditional heavy-duty truck market for many years, which has also become an important variable in the future heavy-duty truck market pattern.

At present, the industrial chain of pure electric heavy trucks has been perfected, the cost of batteries has been greatly reduced, the supporting system tends to be complete, and there is no technical obstacle to the promotion of new energy heavy trucks. In this context, OEMs have begun to actively embrace new energy technologies to further adapt to market demand. From the announcement of 6 batches of new energy heavy trucks issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the second half of this year, it can be seen that the number of new energy heavy truck models shows a trend of increasing batches by batch. Sinotruk, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, SAIC and other enterprises have a variety of new energy heavy-duty truck models.

Judging from the current layout, Sinotruk (000951.SZ) has completed the technical reserve of new energy heavy trucks, and the core layout and vehicle integration development have been completed; SAIC Hongyan accelerated the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks, and continuously delivered and used heavy trucks for replacement; Lingyu Automobile, a subsidiary of CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ / 01839), jointly promoted the key project of "oil to electricity" in conjunction with FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ) this year, and successfully jointly developed a pure electric cement mixer truck. Nowadays, Lingyu Automobile has released 3 pure electric concrete mixer trucks, and Xi'an CIMC's new energy urban muck truck is also walking on the road of "new energy".

Many bus companies are also actively involved in the new energy heavy truck industry, such as Zhengzhou Yutong continuously launched new energy heavy truck models, Kaiwo Automobile began to sell hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks, Foton Automobile launched lightweight smart heavy trucks, etc.

New energy provides new opportunities for main engine factories to tell stories and overtake in curves, and the silent heavy-duty truck market is expected to continue to gain market attention and expectations. With the improvement of new energy-related technologies, the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy commercial vehicles with green, environmental protection and intelligent technology as the core has become an irreversible and inevitable trend, and domestic OEMs will usher in new opportunities and challenges.

New energy commercial vehicles put forward higher requirements for upstream and downstream supply chain enterprises

In order to accelerate the landing process of new energy for commercial vehicles, in addition to the main engine factory, many spare parts suppliers, special vehicle installation and semi-trailer companies in the downstream of commercial vehicles also need to actively adapt to the trend of new energy, seize the market and contribute to the transformation of the new energy commercial vehicle industry.

Under the current national standards, the weight of diesel heavy trucks with drive specifications 8X4 shall not exceed 16 tons. If the current weight limit standard is referred to, the electric heavy truck is bound to reduce the truck load due to the increased weight of the battery system, and the vehicle payload is reduced by 2-3 tons, which will reduce the efficiency of truck transportation and improve operating costs. Therefore, lightweight has become a key solution, and major car companies have actively laid out lightweight.

Taking CIMC Vehicle as an example, it has reserved a number of core technologies in terms of lightweight and has become a leader in lightweighting in the industry. The weight of the new generation of stainless steel liquid tank semi-trailer produced by its Ruijiang tank truck broke the industry's lightest record. At the same time, CIMC Vehicles also actively cooperates with Baowu Steel Group to produce special steel, and continues to explore in the field of lightweight.

In addition to lightweighting, new energy heavy trucks also put forward higher requirements for the depth and adaptability of joint research and development of topsize and OEMs. Leading enterprises in the industry have natural advantages, it is very easy to create an industrial moat, such as CIMC Vehicles actively carry out the "joint development" strategy with the main engine factory, the joint development strategy can make the main engine factory obtain a stable, high-quality topsize, and the manufacturer of special vehicle equipment can lock in sales to a large extent, and obtain advantages that are difficult for other enterprises to achieve. From public reports, it is known that CIMC Vehicles, with its scale and technical advantages, has carried out in-depth cooperation in the field of new energy with China National Heavy Duty Truck, Dongfeng, FAW Jiefang and other OEMs.

2021 is the first year of the development of new energy heavy trucks. With the further enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual expansion of market development space, new energy heavy trucks will continue to grow at a high speed. Some analysts pointed out that following the "surge" in 2021, the new energy heavy-duty truck market is expected to continue to rise in 2022, and the forecast demand may reach about 50,000 vehicles; In 2025, it may exceed 200,000 vehicles and 150 billion yuan, and the penetration rate of new energy will reach more than 20%.

As for the new energy light truck market, it is also developing rapidly. With the outbreak of online economy such as community group buying, fresh e-commerce, and express logistics, the process of urban-rural integration has been accelerating, and the demand for urban distribution has been further amplified. The issuance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" Cold Chain Logistics Development Plan has directly promoted the development of intelligent new energy light trucks. In terms of the research and development of new energy light vans, CIMC Vehicles has formulated digital upgrading projects in three aspects, including the adaptation and application of new energy coolers, the research and development of intelligent interconnection modules and the research and development of box product modules, to promote the high-quality development of China's logistics industry.

In the future, China's commercial vehicle new energy market will gradually enter the strategic stalemate stage with comprehensive capabilities such as endurance, ecology and industrial chain as the core of competition, and the company will gradually enter the strategic stalemate stage characterized by speed, resources and gambling characteristics, and related enterprises with R&D strength and competitive advantages are expected to fully benefit.