The 40th issue | returns from the 100th century, how do electric vehicles get into the fast lane?

Hello everyone, I'm Chen Deyi. Recently, the weather in Shanghai has finally become warmer and warmer. Last week, Shanghai's lowest temperatures were still minus zero, and coupled with a month of rainy weather, it felt like this winter was a bit long. Didn't you say global warming? How to feel in the winter of recent years, the weather is a little cold ah! In order to verify their feelings, so they searched on the Internet, the change of the national winter average temperature over the years, as can be seen from the figure, from 1961 to 2021, the temperature is generally on the rise, and the winter decades ago was much colder than it is now.

Through this search, I also found myself confusing the concept that global warming and cold weather are actually things on two different time scales. Global warming is about changes in the climate, is in a longer period of time, do the data statistics to produce a comparison, this statistical cycle, may be 50 years 100 years or thousands of years tens of thousands of years, and the weather cooling is the individual's microscopic feeling, is standing in their own area to make the current judgment, and did not stand in a larger space time to compare, so it is easy to mistakenly think.

In fact, regarding global warming, as early as the beginning of the 21st century, the scientific community confirmed the fact that the increase in global average temperature in the past 100 years is indeed too high compared with the fluctuation of temperature in the last hundred thousand years. Then, around 2015, the second fact was confirmed, that is, this abnormally high warming was indeed caused by human activities after the Industrial Revolution. On October 5 last year, the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to three scientists, two of whom were guests whose research was related to carbon dioxide, one was The Japanese meteorologist Syukuro Manabe, for his research on carbon dioxide and surface temperatures, in which he demonstrated how increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused the Earth's surface temperature to rise, and the other was German meteorologist Klaus Haselmann Klaus Hasselmann, who has built a model that links weather and climate, and his method has shown that the rise in atmospheric temperature is indeed caused by carbon dioxide emitted by humans, so global warming is a fact and has been agreed by the scientific community.

So in this context, the world has formulated energy-saving and emission-reduction policies, of which in the field of automobiles, the mainland response time is relatively early, in 2009 began to lay out the new energy vehicle industry, and through subsidies to vigorously stimulate the development of the industry, by 2015, the mainland has become the world's largest new energy vehicle production and sales country. However, although we have achieved such good results, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the sales of new cars in passenger cars is still less than 5%. So the state in 2017 promulgated a double point policy, and officially implemented on April 1, 2018, this policy is simply divided into fuel consumption points for fuel vehicles and new energy standard points, fuel vehicle sales fuel consumption to meet the standard, for example, fuel consumption regulations are 8, but the fuel consumption of the car you produce is 9, then the fuel consumption score of this car is -1 point, which is not up to standard. The points of new energy vehicles are calculated according to the proportion of sales, such as the points of a pure electric vehicle are 3.2 points, the points of hybrid vehicles are 2 points, according to the annual sales of 10% of the points assessment, for example, sell 1 million cars a year, 3.2 points * 100,000 cars is 320,000 points, as the assessment standard, fuel consumption points and new energy points These two assessment standards must meet the standards, if not met, either buy points from other car companies, or accept penalties, For example, in 2020, FAW-Volkswagen's fuel consumption points are negative, and the negative points reach millions, if you buy all the positive points according to the market of 3,000 yuan per cent, it will cost more than three billion yuan.

Under the dual guidance of such regulatory policies and subsidy policies, various car companies have increased the production ratio of electric vehicles, and in 2021, they have received remarkable results, with the total sales of electric vehicles reaching 3.5 million, accounting for nearly 15% of all new car sales, this report card is still very eye-catching. New energy vehicles from 2009 to the end of 2020, it took 12 years, sales increased from 0 to 5%, and 2021 only took one year, from 5% to 15%, which shows that 2021 will become the inflection point year of the development of new energy vehicles, this year indicates that the future of new energy vehicles, will become the mainstream of automobile development, especially electric vehicles it will usher in more violent growth in this new year, this growth will definitely break the pattern of the automobile industry in the future China will change from a catch-up in the auto industry to a frontrunner in the auto industry.

Looking back at the history of the development of electric vehicles, it is not helped to sigh that electric vehicles and fuel vehicles came out almost at the same time in the 19th century, and the invention of electric vehicles was two years earlier, but then because the problem of endurance, charging, and too high prices could not be solved, electric vehicles completely withdrew from the historical stage in 1920, and this withdrawal is 100 years of time, until 2021 and back to the center of the automobile stage, looking back at this history, sometimes can't help but think about this 100 years, Why don't big car companies develop electric vehicles, and why no other car companies develop electric vehicles, but to wait until the arrival of Tesla to open this market, there may be three reasons: the first reason is the reason for the capital, that is, the problem of money, to build a car needs massive funds, no tens of billions can not play this industry, you like Evergrande from 2019 announced the car, before and after spending 47.4 billion has not yet built the car, just the funds of this one, Just keep a lot of new players out of the door. So we will see the current car companies in the United States, except for Tesla, they were founded in the last century generally have a history of more than 60 years, which is the first reason.

The second reason is the lack of power, for those car manufacturers, whether from their own interests, or from the interests of their CEO or management, manufacturing a self-subversive product, is not worth the loss, since the industry entry threshold is so high, and their salary and bonuses, and sales and profits linked, why should they not go through with themselves? Moreover, behind the entire automobile industry system, there are also the interests of oil companies, the interests of government taxes, etc., invisible forces, so there is no need to fight with them, which is the second reason, lack of power.

The third reason is for the safety and advantages of the car. Cars are not the same as mobile phones, you can run in small steps, iterate quickly, but the car is not OK, your car must be safe, and in terms of price, performance, and face, you can surpass the same price of fuel vehicles, so that there will be a market, but this is too difficult and too difficult. As a start-up company. It is easy for you to do things in the education market that become the first in this industry, so in the end, these factors, put together, will create the magical phenomenon in these 100 years, that is, no company is willing to break the market of electric vehicles, so how can electric vehicles develop?

I personally think it is mainly due to three reasons: first, the climate reason, that is, the beginning, because of global warming, so there is a carbon neutrality goal, and If China wants to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060, it must carry out cross-generational upgrading of energy. Because the order of general energy upgrading is from wood to coal, to oil to natural gas, to renewable energy, but such an upgrade for China, not only the time span is large, the cost of equipment replacement is also very high, so China from the current coal, oil directly to renewable energy, and renewable energy, mainly based on solar energy, solar energy is not only environmentally friendly and energy utilization efficiency is relatively high, electric energy charged into the battery Energy utilization efficiency can reach 90%. Unlike the efficiency of hydrogen energy battery utilization is only 20% to 30%, which is the reason for the first aspect; the second is the technical reason, the technical reason can be divided into two pieces, one is the internal combustion engine technology, as the three major parts of the fuel vehicle, the engine, the gearbox, the chassis, these technologies have been developed in foreign countries for more than 100 years, leaving others with little room to break through, or even no. China wants to achieve cornering overtaking on this track, almost unlikely, so we can only change a track, which is one of them; second, is the technology of automatic driving, electric vehicles are more suitable for the development of automatic driving, in the early stage of automatic driving technology, using fuel vehicles, not to mention how to achieve fuel vehicle software, it is very inconvenient in hardware alone, and in the early days, it is very inconvenient to install thrust or pull motors on the steering wheel, gear rod, brake pedal and other operating equipment of traditional cars, simulating the operation of hands and feet, When the motor receives the command, and then issues the action signal, and finally executes the action, in fact, the command is issued from the distance, it has been a while, the delay is a bit long, and now the electric vehicle can directly issue instructions to the motor, the delay in the middle is very short, the control is also very direct, so the electric vehicle is more suitable for automatic driving than the fuel vehicle, which is the second aspect of the reason; the third is the consideration of energy security, China now imports products every year, the first is the chip, the second is oil, China has nearly 70% Oil depends on imports, so from the perspective of energy security, new energy sources have also to be sought. The above three aspects are not necessarily correct. But one thing, I firmly believe, is that through the development of electric vehicles and new energy industries, China will have a great opportunity to win the commanding heights of energy technology in the process of achieving carbon neutrality.

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