Since 2014, yi hammer has predicted the development trend of domestic automobiles at the beginning of each year. This year is the ninth edition. Eighty percent of these predictions are accurate and reliable.
The top ten predictions for China's automobiles in 2021 are: First, the state will introduce more intensive policies to encourage automobile consumption. Second, China's automobile production and sales are expected to increase by about 4% year-on-year. Third, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase by more than 50%, breaking through the 2 million mark for the first time. Fourth, the market share of independent brand passenger cars will rebound significantly. Fifth, multinational automobile companies have entered the Chinese new energy vehicle market in a big way. Sixth, the new forces of car manufacturing continue to differentiate and many brands disappear. Seventh, more and more car companies began to produce micro-electric vehicles. Eighth, the city with car purchase restrictions will further relax the restrictions, and the intensity of cars going to the countryside will be greater. Nine, independent brands began to enter the field of hybrid (HEV). X. The trend of domestic automobile consumption upgrading continues to extend.
After a year, looking back, the top ten predictions made at the beginning of last year, in addition to the new energy vehicle growth forecast is somewhat conservative, the automobile production and sales growth forecast is slightly higher, other generally more accurate.
In 2021, due to multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic and chip shortages, as well as sharp increases in raw material prices, China's auto industry performed less than expected. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic and the easing of chip shortages, it is expected that the Performance of China's auto market in 2022 will be better than that of the previous year.
The following is the specific content of the top ten predictions of China's auto market in 2022:
First, the realization of the "double carbon" goal has become the top priority of the domestic automotive industry
Automobiles are major carbon emitters, and the automobile industry has a heavy responsibility in achieving the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
During last year's Guangzhou Auto Show, GAC Group proposed to achieve carbon neutrality in the whole life cycle of its products by 2050 (challenge 2045), which is exactly 10 years ahead of the state's proposal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Volvo China implements carbon reduction in the entire automotive industry chain, not only to achieve green production in vehicle manufacturing, but also to consider carbon reduction factors when selecting suppliers.
In the whole life cycle of automotive products, the use link accounts for more than 70% of total emissions. Vigorously promoting the electrification of automobiles and achieving low-carbon carbon reduction from the whole industrial chain of production, transportation and use will become the primary goal of the automotive industry in 2022.
Second, the sales of new energy vehicles achieved the phased target three years ahead of schedule
A number of institutions predict that china's new energy vehicle sales will reach more than 5 million in 2022, accounting for about 20% of the total sales of new cars that year. If this level is reached, China's new energy vehicle sales will achieve the 2025 target proposed by the state three years ahead of schedule.
The "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued by the General Office of the State Council proposes that by 2025, the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle market will be significantly enhanced, major breakthroughs will be made in key technologies such as power batteries, drive motors, and vehicle operating systems, the safety level will be comprehensively improved, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles.
Third, the chip shortage eased, and the annual sales of new cars increased by more than 5%
A number of authoritative institutions predict that the shortage of automotive chips will be completely alleviated in the second half of this year, which will help increase automobile production and expand sales. In 2022, China's automobile sales are expected to achieve positive growth of more than 5% on the basis of the 3% growth rate in the previous year.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that domestic automobile sales (wholesale, including exports) are expected to be 27.5 million units in 2020, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales are expected to be 23 million units. Year-on-year increase of 8%.
Fourth, Guangfeng and Yifeng are expected to enter the million club of annual automobile sales
Annual sales across the million mark, into the car company million club, is the dream of every OEM. For a vehicle company, joining the million-vehicle club means that the company has million-level R & D and design capabilities, production and manufacturing capabilities, product marketing capabilities and operation and management capabilities, and has entered the first camp of the domestic automotive industry.
Under the severe situation, GAC Toyota achieved sales of 840,000 vehicles in 2021, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and FAW Toyota achieved sales of 860,000 vehicles, an increase of 8% year-on-year. With the continuous relaxation of the environment, it is expected that in 2022, Guangfeng and Yifeng will have the strength to hit the million mark and thus enter the million club.
At present, there are 8 domestic passenger car companies entering the Million Dollar Club, namely FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC-GM, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Nissan and Great Wall Motor.
Fifth, the liberalization of the joint venture stock ratio has little impact on the domestic automobile pattern
From 1 January 2022, the state will abolish the restriction on foreign ownership in passenger car manufacturing and the restriction that the same foreign company can establish two or less joint ventures producing similar vehicle products in China. Restrictions on foreign investment have been imposed in the automotive sector for many years, and all of them will be lifted from January 1, 2022.
BMW Brilliance reached an agreement between China and foreign countries as early as 3 years ago, and Brilliance transferred 25% of the shares of the joint venture to BMW, which will be delivered in 2022.
In 2016, the state clearly stipulated that no new traditional fuel vehicle enterprises were allowed. After the liberalization of the joint venture share ratio, in addition to pure electric vehicle enterprises, there are only two ways for foreign capital to enter the Chinese market: share expansion or acquisition. Judging from the current situation, there is no news of equity changes in joint venture car companies. Overall, the liberalization of joint venture stocks has little impact on the domestic automotive landscape.
Sixth, the market share of independent brand passenger cars has been further improved
Caucus china expects that domestic passenger car sales will increase by 8% in 2022, of which new energy vehicles will increase by nearly 50%. In the sales of new energy vehicle passenger cars, China's independent brands occupy an absolute advantage. In addition, in the field of traditional fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles, the market competitiveness of independent brands is also getting stronger and stronger.
In 2021, the market share of China's own brand passenger cars exceeded 44%, reaching the best level in history. This share is expected to continue to increase in 2022.
Seventh, hybrid vehicles are becoming a blue ocean in China's auto market
Pure hybrid (HEV) is identified as an energy-saving car, can not enjoy the preferential treatment of new energy vehicles, however, hybrid vehicles do not need external plug-in, energy saving and emission reduction effect is significant, more and more popular with consumers.
At present, Guangfeng, Yifeng, Guangben, Dongben, Beixin, Geely, Great Wall and other automobile manufacturers continue to launch pure hybrid models with superior performance and suitable prices, and sales have gone all the way up, accounting for an increasing proportion. This trend is expected to become more pronounced in 2022, and hybrid vehicles are becoming a blue ocean in China's auto market.
Eighth, the domestic automobile market prices tend to be stable and may rise
Affected by the supply of chip shortage products, the price war in the domestic car market has ceased since the second half of last year, and the price of automobiles has stabilized, and this trend will continue in 2022.
Affected by the general increase in the price of raw materials, the price of some tight models will rise in 2022. With the continuous decline of domestic subsidies for new energy vehicles and the sharp increase in the price of power batteries, the price of new energy vehicles will increase significantly in 2022.
Ninth, automobile exports will continue the trend of the previous year and continue to grow significantly
In 2021, China's automobile exports achieved more than expected growth, breaking through the 2 million vehicle mark in one fell swoop. With the easing of the global epidemic, the increase in demand for overseas automobiles, the quality of China's independent brand cars has been greatly improved, the cost performance is high, and the competitiveness is strong, and the trend of the previous year will continue in 2022, and the export of automobiles will continue to grow significantly. In particular, the export of new energy vehicles has become a sudden emergence and has become an important driving force for expanding automobile exports.
The luxury car market continues to heat up and its market share further expands
In recent years, with the upgrading of domestic automobile consumption, the market share of luxury automobiles has continued to increase. In addition to traditional foreign luxury car brands, the sales of Chinese luxury car brands such as Hongqi and Lynk & Co have also been expanding.
It is expected that the domestic luxury car market will continue to heat up in 2022, with a higher growth rate than the Volkswagen market, and the market share will continue to expand. (End)
(This article was published simultaneously to China Automotive Trend Network)