Introduction |
2022/01/03
Moving towards the era of millions of vehicles is indeed commendable. But for Musk, since he knows the importance of China to Tesla, he must not "play with fire" on many sensitive issues.
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Du Yuxin
Edit 丨 Chic
At this moment, 3 days have passed since 2021, and most people are still immersed in the last little tail of the New Year's Day holiday. However, for Tesla, there is no momentary rest, while busy recalling, busy with price increases, while busy releasing production and sales results.
As the founder and CEO, Musk also updated a meaningful tweet on social media: the main background is a tiger with its back to the camera, a hand in front of the "OK" posture, and the following copy is clearly marked: "2022, here we go." ”
As we all know, the 2022 that has arrived is the "Year of the Tiger" in the traditional Chinese zodiac. Therefore, I can't help but ask, as a native American car company, Tesla will also usher in its "life year"? Or does Musk's tweet have another meaning?
Many things, worth pondering...
Enter the era of millions of vehicles
In fact, in the past year, the impact of the epidemic and chip shortage on global cars has not weakened at all. It is precisely in such a harsh living environment that Tesla has completely proved itself to the outside world.
"Tesla's development in the past two years is worthy of respect for all users who do business, and the gross profit margin has risen after the price of the entire car has dropped, indicating that its self-research ability and ability to master the supply chain have been shown, which is a weather vane for the entire industry."
It should be emphasized that such an evaluation comes from Qin Lihong, president of Weilai Automobile. In his cognition, Tesla is using a new way to become the Ford of the smart electric era. Optimize manufacturing processes, reduce costs, increase capacity, scale up, simplify technical routes, and pay little attention to doing things other than "cars".
Indeed, if Tesla's biggest advantage was once more concentrated in the three electric and intelligent levels, then at this moment, "manufacturing" has become its new long board. Its own supply chain is strong enough to resist risks, and it is also ensuring a steady stream of new cars to be delivered.
Long before, some investment bank analysts expected Tesla to deliver 285,000 electric vehicles in Q4, a new high. In terms of regional distribution, the domestic new energy market is expected to deliver about 100,000 electric vehicles, higher than the 59,000 units in the European market and second only to the 107,500 units in the US market.
In the end result, there is not much deviation. According to the official data released, Tesla will produce a total of 305,840 new cars and deliver 308,600 new cars in Q4 2021. Production of the Model S and Model X models was 13,109 units with deliveries of 11,750 units, while production of the Model 3 and Model Y was 292,731 units with 296,850 units.
Tesla produced a total of 930,422 new vehicles and delivered 936,172 new vehicles for the full year of 2021. Production of the Model S and Model X models was 24,390 units with deliveries of 24,964 units, while production of the Model 3 and Model Y was 906,032 units with deliveries of 911,208 units.
Although it is a little regrettable that it has not been able to usher in the milestone moment when production and sales have broken through the million mark, according to the current growth momentum, Tesla, which has already ushered in the "year of life", may only be a matter of time to complete.
Meanwhile, on March 10, 2020, Musk announced that Tesla had brought tesla off the production line for its 1 millionth new car, a red Model Y. At that time, I was sighing, experiencing enough unforgettable dark moments, even chewing glass and staring into the abyss, and the car company finally gradually became the way it wanted.
Unexpectedly, just a few hundred days later, Tesla, as the largest "catfish" in the global new energy market, has raised its annual production and sales to a height of 930,000 vehicles. Such a speed is beyond the reach of many competitors.
As a bystander, what I want to say is: "In this era, we should be glad that there is a company like Tesla." Because it almost single-handedly promotes the speed of change and iteration of the automotive industry, thus spawning corresponding opportunities and outlets for more people. ”
"Chinese car company" Tesla?
Returning to Musk's tweet at the beginning of the article, it may be directly interpreted as: "The Year of the Chinese Tiger, we are ready." ”
After all, judging from the October and November data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Tesla (China) wholesale sales reached 54,391 vehicles and 52,859 vehicles respectively. Among them, exports reached 40,666 units and 21,127 units, and 13,725 new vehicles and 31,732 new vehicles were delivered in China, respectively.
According to the total results backwards, December in China's wholesale sales hit a record high, is already a nail in the coffin, or reached a staggering 100,000 vehicles.
As of November, the cumulative delivery volume of Tesla's Shanghai factory in 2021 has exceeded the 400,000-unit mark, reaching 413,283 vehicles, an increase of 242% year-on-year. There is no doubt that it is precisely because of the huge contribution given by this sector that Tesla's global production and sales will exceed the 930,000 mark throughout 2021.
As everyone knows, at the Tesla shareholders' meeting held in October last year, the "painting cake" continued. Among them, the most surprising thing is that it will achieve annual sales of 20 million vehicles by 2030. In Musk's view, Tesla's compound annual growth rate has reached 71%, which is a very frightening growth rate in all car companies.
Next, as long as the chip shortage problem can be alleviated as soon as possible, Tesla will have no problem maintaining the existing growth rate, at least for a longer period of time to maintain more than 50% growth. That is to say, Tesla's new production and sales target in 2022 may reach 1.5 million vehicles.
Then, how much increment the Chinese market can provide has become a decisive factor in whether it can be successfully achieved.
As an argument, it was learned from the Environmental Information Disclosure Platform of Shanghai Enterprises and Institutions that Tesla conducted an environmental impact assessment of the second phase of the production line optimization project of the Shanghai factory (Phase I).
According to the EIA report, the total investment in the production line optimization project is as high as 1.2 billion yuan, of which the environmental protection investment is 85 million yuan, accounting for 7.08%, and is expected to be completed in April this year.
Tesla said in the EIA report that the project is an expansion project, which is carried out in the existing new model production area (that is, the production area of the second phase B of the Shanghai Super Factory (Phase I)), and the production model is unchanged from before the expansion, that is, the Model 3, Model Y and related derivative models are still maintained.
"The project will increase capacity by increasing working hours, increasing the number of employees, and increasing the frequency of material turnover, but the EIA report does not disclose the increase in capacity." However, according to internal sources, after the optimization of the project, the factory will add 4,000 employees, and the number of employees in the whole plant will reach 19,000.
It is certain that after the rapid expansion, the annual production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai factory will be further increased on the basis of the current 550,000-600,000 vehicles. In 2021, China will contribute nearly half of Tesla's overall production capacity, cutting out the export part, and the domestic market will provide nearly one-third of the sales support.
In 2022, this trend of dependence will inevitably continue to intensify. And with the landing of data centers, research and development centers, design centers, and the gradual emergence of special models with lower positioning than Model 3, China's strategic position in Tesla's entire territory has been elevated to an unprecedented height.
Even sometimes I feel that approaching a "Chinese car company" has slowly become Musk's long-cherished wish, and he has confirmed that he will personally visit the Shanghai factory at a certain point this year.
At that time, in addition to the "thank you to the Chinese government" that was once said at the Model 3 off-line ceremony, Musk should be more grateful to the Chinese car owners who have completely helped Tesla achieve quantitative changes. Without them, where in 2021 930,000 vehicles production and sales results.
Finally, I would like to emphasize that in the traditional history and culture of our country, there are actually many taboos and rules. For Musk, since he knows the importance of China to Tesla, he must not "play with fire" on many sensitive issues.
Otherwise, it will be counter-devoured, miss the opportunity to impact 1.5 million vehicles, and can only bear it alone...
| Cui Liwen |
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