Although on the night of the release, the driver's pie had borrowed the (shopping) enthusiasm of Sister Cha and placed an order at the first time, but the ET5 released by Weilai this time did not make me have too much excitement, not as good as the ET7 at that time.
This feeling is a bit like tmall double eleven around 2019, everyone knows what is there, and knows that the transaction volume will reach a new high, but it has long been less than the feeling of taking money to sweep goods a few years ago. The main reason is that the results are known, the ability is known, the price is guessed, the model is smooth, all the controversies are quelled, and everything is standardized.
Therefore, the predetermined volume of ET5 must be very high, and the sales volume will be very high. Of course, people who like novelty are crab eaters, such as those who buy ES8, and as electric cars enter civilians, people who buy Camry themselves do not need so-called novelty. Then a car like ET5 is completely for "most people" to build a car.
Let's start with the product. It is a pity that the styling design has not changed at all, and the whole design reuses ET7. Especially as a product that can only be delivered in large quantities after one year, this should be vigilant against the risk of aesthetic fatigue. The rear design is very Model 3, which is estimated to take into account wind resistance and size, but it is also acceptable.
2888mm wheelbase, but the space does not feel like much advantage, after all, the shape is very backward. Referring to the Mach-E's 2984mm, I speculate that the ET5 may be spatially close to the Model Y.
Needless to say, the hardware is full, and there will be anyway. If it is a single motor rear drive, it can also improve the endurance and reduce the price. Of course, NIO is in the price of 250,000 yuan full four-wheel drive, that is another thing, because you have to give.
I also read the transcript of the subsequent interview, and I judged that cheap products would not appear under the NIO brand. This logic also makes sense.
Then there's the controversial price.
75kWh and 100kWh model prices are 328,000 yuan and 386,000 yuan, to my own best know Mach-E, 75kWh ET5 is certainly not expensive, the same four-wheel drive, the same 500 km class endurance, Mach-E full drive is more than ten thousand expensive, not to mention the difference in work materials. But as a Model 3 that Weilai especially wants to play, the ET5 of more than 300,000 is high again.
In fact, the real opponent of ET5 is probably the Model Y P version, which is a high hunchback model, but the performance gap and the computing power gap are also quite obvious, and Tesla still has its own unique advantages in this regard. But it is important that there are too few people who buy high-performance Teslas, there are low-end to buy low-end, ET5 takes advantage of this, the entry is in the high configuration, than the performance is stronger than you, there is no can be low matching.
Of course, I believe many people will think that the price of ET5 is 258,000 yuan - under the packaging of BaaS, the price advantage of ET5 is really too obvious. At once, the benchmark of ET5 was placed on the model 3, the ordinary version of model Y, and all the electric vehicles below 300,000 yuan on the market now. No matter how you compare, ET5 is a hanging each other.
I have to say that BaaS is indeed too flattering, as a unique advantage of Weilai, other brands can not surpass this "battery pack separate calculation" option, although I think this is an indefinite deferral in price. It will take almost five years before you feel the need for additional expenses – a psychological advantage that you can even pay in installments.
Regarding BaaS and flexible power exchange, there is a very detailed article before driving Shipai ("Electric vehicle companies that do not do energy services are playing tickets"), and everyone is interested in going to see. After reading it, you will feel that WEILAI is far ahead of many brands in terms of overall business logic.
That's why I would say that the ET5 product force may not have a particularly long board, but the order will be good. Because in the context of 258,000, it is too worth it.
So what are the risks of ET5?
If you think about it, it's just a matter of this delivery period. It is said that it will be delivered in September 2022, and it is most likely that it will start in the last three days of September 2022. Then the whole fourth quarter was a ramp-up in capacity, and then the real mass deliveries were in 2023.
So in the 2022 cycle, the technical backwardness problem faced by ET5 may appear. For example, there is no 800V, no better large screen (additional ar/VR panoramic immersion experience that glasses to see it), no ultra-fast charging, no more advanced so-called 8295, ADaaS requires additional subscriptions and so on. This is easy for opponents to seize the opportunity, after all, after the era of full electric vehicles, everyone chooses to change more every month, and they are less and less patient.
There is also BaaS, ET5 may be the model with the highest share of BaaS, on the one hand, it shows that everyone does recognize this form, on the other hand, can it be understood that if there is no BaaS, it will affect the cost performance of Weilai? Will this limit the number of users of Weilai? There is no answer to this at the moment, but it can be observed.
All in all, the sales of ET5 are no problem, and in the usual words of media teachers, "quite explosive potential". And Weilai's big chess game to now, should also have reached the harvest period for a single explosive model. Just thinking that the large-scale delivery is probably going to be until 2023, I will soon be able to mention The Mach-E, and I still feel that I am not at a loss.
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