▼
In today's China, and the world, a "phenomenon" is happening. Musk, who has the reputation of "Iron Man of Silicon Valley", has become the focus of public attention, and Tesla is constantly questioning and moving forward. In this process, the smart car, outlined, the technical maturity curve "The Hype Cycle", even exceeds the smartphone. Of course, both are high-tech, and the infrastructure that represents future technological trends.
At present, the market dividend presented by the two is very different.
Apple, which defines the smartphone, is not only a hardware intelligence, but a comprehensive end node that integrates "hardware + software + operating system". Tesla, at the level of practicing the interconnection of all things, has adopted a more radical strategy, peaking the automotive industry and turning Tesla into the "Apple" of the automotive industry.
Such a story is very effective, users pay, the capital market pays, on the road, Tesla's figure is everywhere, Tesla's market value exceeded one trillion US dollars, and Musk became the world's richest man. Musk's entrepreneurial story has also become a new model for many technology leaders.
Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, Huawei, Xiaomi, and another giant have plunged into the smart car market. This is: "The track is already in the cusp, the capital leap forward, and the intelligent car is in full bloom."
This is the "smart car market effect formed by Musk and Tesla."
1
Dividends intensify, who can become China's Tesla
For smart cars, the part of its imagination value-added is that smart cars, in the era of the Internet of Everything, the car itself has gradually upgraded from a travel tool to a new generation of intelligent terminals that integrate comprehensive attributes such as "travel + entertainment + office + life". With this imaginative premium segment, smart cars, and their overall supply chains, are in the big stage of dividend explosion. Of course, this one dividend is also divided into multiple levels, and multiple faces.
In this context, the current static market value of smart cars is: "Tesla, 930.9 billion US dollars, Xiaopeng Automobile, 282.1 billion yuan, 36.122 billion US dollars, ideal car market value of 240.7 billion (Hong Kong stocks), 30.975 billion US dollars (US stocks) billion US dollars, NIO 47.829 billion US dollars, BYD market value of 812.151 billion yuan (Shanghai and Shenzhen) billion yuan, 773.200 (Hong Kong stocks) billion Hong Kong dollars"
Behind the latest market value, supporting the high market value of these smart cars, there are also shipments. According to past data, the sales of Tesla, Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng Automobile in 2020 were 499,600 units, 43,700 units, 32,600 units and 27,000 vehicles, respectively, compared with 368,000 units, 20,600 units, 00,000 units and 12,700 vehicles in 2019, which increased by 36%, 113% and 32 times (Ideal Automobile's sales in 2019 were 0.1 million units) and 112%.
Behind these high market capitalizations is one of the embodiments of its capital dividend.
It is believed that for many smart car brands, in a "car-making wave", they will launch an onslaught on Tesla from multiple dimensions of "channel + product + service + supply chain". However, in my opinion, what surpasses Tesla must not be the smart car brand itself, and to become a "Chinese Tesla", it also needs to be expanded in the above dimensions.
With the addition of technology giants such as Xiaomi and Huawei, the current pattern is not a pattern of "one strong and four strong", because at present, with the development of battery technology and the maturity of the supply chain, the research and development of smart cars has become no longer as heavy as before.
Therefore, the current market pattern will change, as for who can become China's Tesla, I believe that it is necessary to wait for all the players to enter the track before they can be revealed.
2
On the road to disruption, the smart supply chain has a lot to offer
Smart cars are truly a trillion-dollar market. In this market, there are manufacturer brands, as well as, around the entire supply chain, the birth of the new energy market, intelligent technology service market, and operating systems, and so on, many fields. Therefore, the smart car market, with the rise of these supply chains, has also begun to undergo industrial chain fission. Therefore, in the future pattern, there may also be a phenomenon that the giants in the supply chain will surpass the car brand itself.
In this process, the rise of the Ningde era, which focuses on the research and development and manufacturing of new energy, is also interpreting this phenomenon. At present, the market value of CATL has reached 1.52 trillion yuan (CSI).
Therefore, it can be said that in the future, what will surpass Tesla may be the supply chain, not necessarily the smart car itself. Therefore, the rise of the Ningde era can be seen that the supply chain is very likely. At present, in the intelligent vehicle supply chain, the enterprise value in the supply chain of Luxshare Precision, iFLYTEK, Baoxin Software, Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda and so on, is exploding.
Obviously, the dividend of smart cars is not only given to auto companies, bringing huge user and market dividends, but also bringing huge dividends to the supply chain. Then, in this ecosystem, as the brand of smart cars continues to increase in the future, then the value of suppliers will continue to enlarge, which means that there will be "a smart car giant and a supply chain giant" in the future." At the level of comprehensive strength, perhaps, the two can be matched, and even the giants in the supply chain can surpass the smart car giants themselves.
3
The battle of the system, the crowd of intelligent systems
The smart car market belongs to a large and comprehensive comprehensive market, and in the smart car market, the operating system of the car itself is also a key market. Because, the current automotive pattern is that hardware and software are separated, and more professional players in vertical fields can join the construction of this market.
At present, at the operating system level, they are Tesla Version operating system, Xiaopeng Xmart OS, BYD DiLink, NIO OS, and ideal automotive RTOS. These operating systems are intelligent cars, self-developed operating systems.
At the same time, at the level of intelligent car operating system, AliOS, Baidu Xiaodu vehicle OS, and Huawei officially released the Hongmeng operating system (HarmonyOS). The difference between the two is that the former is an independently developed operating system, and the latter is a system developer for serving small and medium-sized smart car brands that do not have large-scale development capabilities.
As we all know, the smart car is not only a hardware terminal, but also a software system, so the intelligent system will also usher in the pattern of competing for deer.
Smart cars, in the cycle of interconnection of all things, have become a comprehensive terminal node, carrying and linking a huge supply chain ecology, and in this development process, social responsibility, as well as the construction of the environment, can be interpreted, the application value of smart cars, and in this process, there have been high-market value smart car giants, and in the future, perhaps, there will be more supply chain giants.
At present, the major enterprises in the supply chain are more win-win, and in the win-win and scuffle, they will push smart cars to a new trend of transforming a new generation of travel and interconnection.