Near the end of the year, the new energy vehicle market also continued to heat up. Just entering December, car companies are scrambling to announce November sales. In November, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 15,613 units, an increase of 270% year-on-year; Ideal Automobile delivered 13,485 units, an increase of 190% year-on-year; Weilai Automobile delivered 10,878 units, an increase of 106% year-on-year; Nezha Automobile delivered 10,013 units, an increase of 372% year-on-year; GAC Aean sold 14,566 units, an increase of 123% year-on-year The Volkswagen ID. family delivered 14,167 units, up 11.2% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling electric vehicle series sales reached 50,141 units; BYD new energy vehicle sales reached 90,121 units, an increase of 252.7% year-on-year, almost all of which set new sales records. Electric vehicles are selling hot, and new and old car companies are in stock, which has attracted more attention to the new energy vehicle market in November.
Is the growth momentum stable?
On December 8, the latest data released by the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Association") showed that in November, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China reached 378,000 units, an increase of 122.3% year-on-year, an increase of 19.8% month-on-month; from January to November, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.514 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year, and it is expected to impact 3 million units for the whole year.
"New energy passenger cars are no longer dependent on subsidies, but on the continuous rise in market demand." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that the growth of the new energy vehicle market has become the main theme of the new energy vehicle market this year, and the centralized release of new energy vehicles in November continued the hot trend of "Golden Nine Silver Ten". At the same time, the sales trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strong differentiation, gradually showing a substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market, and driving the entire automobile market to accelerate the transformation to new energy.
Analyzing the reasons behind the centralized release of new energy vehicles in November, Li Jianping, a researcher at the Jiangsu New Energy Automobile Industry Development Research Institute, believes that first, with the changes in consumption concepts and market consumption upgrades, the demand for new energy vehicles is gradually rising; second, the recent shortage of automotive chips has eased slightly, and the price increase of raw materials for some new energy vehicles has declined after experiencing peaks, and many contradictions in the supply chain have also eased to a certain extent. In addition to the orders for normal delivery, the new energy vehicles that were delayed in delivery some time ago due to chip shortages and other reasons have also begun to be delivered in the near future, resulting in a substantial increase in delivery volume and sales in November; third, the overall quality and intelligence of new energy vehicles, including independent brands and new car-making forces, are constantly improving, which has improved the trust of consumers; fourth, the sales channels of new energy vehicles have increased recently, and many new energy vehicle brands have adopted direct sales stores, online sales, supermarkets, and supermarkets. The simultaneous use of multiple channels such as 4S stores, and the gradual improvement of the new energy vehicle insurance and after-sales service markets, have driven the sales of new energy vehicles.
At the same time, the data shows that in November, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 20.8%; from January to November, the penetration rate was 13.9%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. "The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase in November, which was contributed by a variety of factors." Hu Fenglin, a researcher at the New Energy Innovation Technology Center of Shenzhen Advanced Technology Research Institute, analyzed that first of all, the current consumer of new energy vehicles is still young people, and the purchase of new energy vehicles is mostly used for commuting in the city and suburban play. And the design of such models is mostly trendy, and the target population is more targeted, so it has led to an increase in the sales of electric vehicles. For example, the wholesale sales of the hot-selling A00-class pure electric vehicles reached 108,000 units, and the share reached 31% of pure electric vehicles, which is a rare high level. Secondly, today's new energy vehicles are mostly the second car purchased by families, not only the purchase rate of A00-class cars is high, but also the market share of A0-class, A-class, and B-class new energy vehicles is gradually growing, which makes the penetration rate continue to rise. In addition, at present, the overall control of the epidemic in China is better, so under the background of the relatively moderate number plate resources and the gradual increase in the layout of charging piles, the consumption barriers of electric vehicles are becoming less and less, and the penetration rate is also rising.
So, is the good growth momentum of the new energy vehicle market in November sustainable? There are different views in the industry on this. "I don't think this kind of high growth is sustainable." Xu Shaoyong, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, told China Automotive News that although the development of new energy vehicles is the established general direction of the industry, the consumption capacity of the domestic market is limited after all. Moreover, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the technical level of power batteries and intelligence, and existing models may soon achieve iteration. In addition, there are still many urban restrictions, and it is impossible to open them for a long period of time, including the rapid growth of sales in November this year, it is easy to consume the market consumption potential of new energy vehicles in advance, and it is likely that there will be a sales trend of "high before and low after" in the future. In addition, many car companies are now rushing to launch new energy vehicle products or expand production capacity, and it is also worrying whether it will cause overcapacity in the future.
"Whether in the short term or in the medium and long term, if there is no special factor, new energy vehicles will maintain sustained and stable growth, but the specific growth rate of each month may be large or small." Cheng Shijun, consultant of the Shandong New Energy Automobile Industry Research Association, said. He believes that there are three reasons, one is from the national strategy of "double carbon" goals and the gradual improvement of the domestic new energy vehicle policy system, the development of new energy vehicles has become a national policy, which also largely affects the choice of consumers; the second is that the rapid progress of new energy vehicles in electrification, intelligence, automatic driving and other technical levels will provide consumers with a better experience and prompt consumers to choose more new energy vehicles; third, the good atmosphere for the development of new energy vehicles in China is forming. To a large extent, it will guide consumers to choose new energy vehicles.
New forces enter the stage of large-scale release?
In november, the sales volume of new energy vehicles, the new forces of car manufacturing showed outstanding performance, whether it is the head enterprises or the second-tier enterprises, all achieved substantial growth, and the sales volume of more than 10,000 enterprises is not a few. The delivery volume of the month has shown a situation of "Xiao Li Wei Which" four strong competition. In addition, the delivery volume of second-tier companies such as WM Motors and Zero-run Cars has exceeded 5,000 units.
Hu Fenglin is very optimistic about the follow-up development of new car-making forces. He believes that first, in terms of technology accumulation, several head enterprises in the new forces of car manufacturing have a strong foundation, so the performance and experience of the new models launched are better, and the sales growth is reasonable; second, in terms of production capacity, the new forces of car manufacturing are expanding or preparing to expand production, "Wei Xiaoli" has proposed an expansion plan, and the delivery capacity has been improved; third, in the marketing channels, the new forces have adopted a variety of ways such as direct operation, online, agent, and self-operation, and with the gradual solution of problems such as chips and raw materials, a new wave of continuous release will be ushered in , November or just a fresh start.
However, in Xu Shaoyong's view, the concentration of new car-making forces in November is an accidental phenomenon intertwined with various factors, or it will be difficult to sustain. He believes that at present, even the head of the enterprise, its respective market risks have not been completely eliminated, such as financing, quality, research and development, supply chain construction there are still some uncertainties, if you encounter sudden adverse factors such as model accidents or recalls, or low delivery for several months, there may be unpredictable problems such as capital operation. Therefore, the new car-making forces are still a long way from "maturity", and it is more appropriate to call their current state the "growth" stage.
"Objectively speaking, the head enterprises of the new car-making forces have grown rapidly and have also obtained a lot of high-quality resources." Cheng Shijun believes that there is competition, ups and downs, and jagged differences between the new forces of car-making, and only then will healthier development be achieved. Although new energy vehicles are gradually on the fast track, and the domestic policy and investment, industry, and market environment are also improving, the new forces of car manufacturing still need time and market grinding to gradually accumulate strength and compete with giants such as Tesla.
Can the "China Advantage" be Maintained?
From the statistics of new energy vehicles in November, it can be seen that China has accounted for 61% of the world's new energy vehicle share. How to look at this achievement and how to maintain the development advantage has also become a topic of concern in the industry.
"An accidental volume does not fully represent the true level and strength." Xu Shaoyong said that although China's new energy vehicles are developing rapidly, the foundation is not solid enough. Taking the new forces of car manufacturing that have been concentrated and released as an example, most of them have been established for a short time, the models are not rich enough, and there is still a gap between intelligent technology and Tesla and other enterprises. Many of the new energy vehicle brands created by traditional car companies started late, and the listed models still lack design, technical refinement and clear advanced concepts, and the gap can be clearly seen when compared with Tesla. Therefore, we should not be complacent because of the sudden increase in delivery volume and sales. There is no new energy vehicle company in China that can fully surpass Tesla, and it is necessary to see this very clearly and consciously create better products to have better sales.
"This is indeed a rare achievement, but we should objectively understand the current situation and continue to deepen the new energy vehicle market." Cheng Shijun said that in the three years from 2018 to 2020, the share of China's new energy vehicles in the global market was 54%, 51% and 41% respectively, and the current achievements are gratifying, but the effort is more important. First, it is necessary to strengthen research and development, integrate more new technologies, new materials, new architectures, and conscientiously create better new energy vehicles; the second is to have advanced or even advanced concepts, not only to use digital twins, virtual technologies, simulation tests, computer-aided design and other more advanced means, but also to build smart factories, digital workshops, unmanned assembly lines, etc. as far as possible, with leading design, high-quality products to participate in market competition.
For how to continue to maintain the advantage of leading sales, Hu Fenglin believes that in addition to creating high-quality and high-performance smart car products, we must also pay attention to developing a multi-faceted market. First, in terms of models, it is not only necessary to develop the mainstream young consumer group market, but also to tap the female and elderly markets; second, in the context of global new energy vehicle competition, it is not only necessary to base itself on the domestic market, but also to actively explore the international market and participate in global market competition.
"Under the background of intensified global competition, thriving domestic market, positive domestic enterprises and continuous industrial benefits, a new era of electric vehicles is accelerating." Li Jianping believes that to meet the new era, it is more necessary to be pragmatic and hardworking.
Text: Zhao Jianguo Editor: Sun Huanyu Layout: Li Peiyang