Experts interpret the car market: this year is expected to increase by 3%, what is the trend next year? How to develop new energy?

Strong demand and chip shortages have become the second keyword of the automotive market this year.

"This year, the automobile market has suffered from unfavorable factors such as chip shortage and continuous high raw material prices, but under the technological changes such as electrification, the vitality of car companies has been significantly enhanced, market consumer demand continues to show a trend of quality upgrading, and the overall production and sales of automobiles still maintain stable growth." Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said at the 2022 China AutoMotive Market Development Forecast Summit.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in November this year, automobile production and sales were 2.585 million units and 2.522 million units, down 9.3% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively; from January to November this year, domestic automobile production and sales were 23.172 million units and 23.489 million units, an increase of 3.5% and 4.5% year-on-year, respectively; Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, analyzed that "the overall domestic automobile market has turned from negative growth for three consecutive years to positive growth." ”

Supply is constrained, and there is still room for consumption

This year's total sales may reach 26.1 million

Bi Jiyao, vice president of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said, "The domestic epidemic situation occurs from time to time, and the price of upstream industries has risen sharply, exacerbating the operational difficulties of downstream enterprises and industries. "As a pillar industry of the national economy, the overall pressure of the automobile industry this year is obvious, in addition to the epidemic factors, the shortage of chips has also increased the pressure on the automobile market; Chen Shihua said that from January to October this year, the market gap caused by the shortage of chips to the automobile market was about 750,000 vehicles.

Chen Bin, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, summed up the development characteristics of this year's automobile market with "supply is constrained, consumption is still space; new energy vehicles are multiplying, and export vehicles are soaring". Looking at it, in the first half of this year, the automobile industry maintained steady growth, and due to the impact of chips, the production capacity in the third quarter was blocked, but the supply in the fourth quarter improved slightly.

Judging from the performance of passenger cars and commercial vehicles, there are also different development states.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 18.879 million units and 19.060 million units, respectively, an increase of 6.9% and 7.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points lower than that of January to October. The development of the passenger car market has shown several characteristics, one is that the market share of independent brand passenger cars has increased significantly compared with the same period, maintaining growth for 8 consecutive months year-on-year; second, the growth rate of luxury car brands; third, the growth of new energy vehicles against the trend.

"The ability of independent brands to cope with the market crisis and adaptability to the market far exceed those of luxury brands and joint venture brands; at the same time, the lack of cores has led to the lack of cars for joint venture brand terminals to sell, and some demand has shifted to independent brands." Li Bingyang, director of the market data room of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd., further said, "The demand for luxury cars due to supply and chip shortages has not been reflected in the sales of terminals, and this part of the demand is likely to shift to next year." ”

As for the commercial vehicle market, the growth trend in the first half of the year was better, and the decline in the second half of the year was obvious. According to CAAM data, commercial vehicle production and sales in the first 11 months of this year totaled 4.293 million units and 4.429 million units, down 9.1% and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively. "On the one hand, part of the sales volume is overdrawn in advance, on the other hand, because the policy is to be switched in advance, the manufacturer's terminal promotion has accelerated the exchange of terminal discounts for sales; from the monthly data, the net increase in the number of commercial vehicles in the first half of 2021 is close to the level of last year." Li Bingyang said.

Caambiz predicts that domestic passenger car sales will reach 21.3 million units in 2021, up 5.6% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales will reach 4.8 million units, down 6.4% year-on-year. Chen Shihua predicted that from the perspective of the whole year, affected by the chip shortage, the sales volume of the domestic automobile market is expected to decrease by 1.3 million to 1.4 million units; the total sales volume of the domestic automobile market is expected to reach 26.1 million units this year, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year.

Full-year sales may reach 3.4 million units

New energy vehicles have entered a new stage of explosive growth

From the perspective of the development of the overall automobile market this year, the unexpected growth of new energy vehicles has become a highlight of the domestic automobile market Since June, the monthly production and sales data of new energy vehicles have continuously refreshed the historical record. According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in China reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and sales have exceeded the annual expectations.

Chen Shihua analyzed that the growth of new energy vehicles on the one hand is the continuous improvement of product strength and cost performance, on the other hand, the recognition of the consumer market continues to increase. The industry believes that the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales has achieved its substitution effect on traditional fuel vehicles, which has further promoted the pace of transformation of the automobile industry to new energy.

According to the data of china automobile association, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in November was 17.8%, and the continuous growth continued to be higher than that of the previous month, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle passenger cars reached 19.5%, and the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 12.7% from January to November this year. Fu Bingfeng said that the marketization of new energy vehicles has entered a new stage of explosive growth, which has shifted from the past policy-oriented to market-driven, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles this year are expected to reach 3.4 million, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year.

However, there are views in the industry that the development of new energy vehicles is not comprehensive only based on sales. Judging from the current development of the new energy vehicle market, there is a trend of weak in the middle and strong at both ends. Li Bingyang believes that there are hidden dangers in this trend. "In the fuel vehicle market, the A-class car market has always been the main consumer goods, and the proportion of personal consumption is basically 91%; but in the field of new energy vehicles, 95% of the A00-level market is personal consumption, while only 56% of the A-class market is personal consumption, and he believes that in the future, if the new energy vehicle market wants to make a qualitative leap, it must occupy the main consumption position in the A-class car market."

In addition, Chen Bin said that to ensure the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, we must not only pay attention to vehicle manufacturing, but also pay more attention to the supply of upstream products, especially to establish a stable and safe and controllable industrial chain and supply chain for the supply of power battery raw materials as soon as possible.

It is predicted that the total sales volume of the car market next year may reach 27.5 million units, and the new energy will increase by 47%

In the future, the auto market will maintain a moderate growth trend

Judging from the situation in the domestic market, the data of the China Automobile Association shows that the market share of first-tier cities and third-tier cities has increased in the past two years, and the main factors are related to the economic situation. Therefore, Chen Shihua said that the change in economic development is also one of the main reasons affecting the changes in the automobile market next year, from the macroeconomic level, the economic stability will promote the automobile industry to maintain stable growth, the improvement of living standards in urban areas below the third tier is one of the next major tasks, which is also the place where the future automobile market will enter.

Chen Shihua further summarized the favorable factors for the growth of the automotive market in 2022, one is that GDP is expected to grow by 5.5%, the second is that overseas demand will still maintain rapid growth, and the third is that the shortage of chips will ease. Li Bingyang also has the same view, he believes that from the perspective of the long-term development of the automobile market, the overall economic environment next year will be better than the fourth quarter of this year, from the policy point of view, second-hand car circulation, new energy and other policies are conducive to the development of the industry; from the market environment, the tight supply of chips is expected to improve, and it is predicted that the replacement volume of the automobile market next year will be 17 million.

From the perspective of specific market segments, the industry believes that the passenger car market just needs to still exist. Bai Ling, an industry research expert in the Product Planning Department of Chongqing Chang'an, believes that the passenger car market will be stable and slightly increased next year, and the trend of cruel competition will show a small increase in the market in 2021 (luxury brands are more obvious), the competition will be more severe, the proportion of the vehicle market of 100,000-200,000 yuan will gradually increase, the price will return to the market law and begin to explore, and the mainstream products of the joint venture will bear greater competitive pressure.

As for the commercial vehicle market, the industry generally believes that there are many uncertainties and variables. Jiang Zhiyong, deputy director of the FAW Liberation Strategy Department, said that in the past three or four years, commercial vehicles, especially medium and heavy truck sales, have been seriously overdrawn in advance, as well as the situation of overcapacity in the production capacity chain, and the market has fallen back this year, so it is predicted that there will be a sharp decline in market space starting next year. Chen Shihua predicts that commercial vehicle sales will be about 4.5 million units next year, down 6% year-on-year.

For new energy vehicles, industry experts are basically optimistic; Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that new energy vehicles have become the bright spot and new growth point of automobile consumption and even the entire consumption. The China Automobile Association expects sales of new energy vehicles to reach 5 million units next year, an increase of 47% year-on-year.

At the same time, the industry believes that new energy vehicles are showing a trend of high-quality development. Wang Zhenpo, director of the National Engineering Laboratory for Electric Vehicles at Beijing Institute of Technology, said, "From a technical point of view, the mileage of new energy passenger cars is increasing rapidly; from the battery level, buses and logistics vehicles are mainly lithium iron phosphate batteries, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are also favored by passenger cars; from the charging level, the vehicle charging scene shows a diversified trend, charging and replacing the combination." ”

For the development of the overall automobile market next year, Wang Qing's prediction that automobile demand in 2022 is expected to continue to rise slightly, automobile sales are roughly 27 million vehicles, an increase of 3%-5% year-on-year, maintaining a pattern of low and high throughout the year; Chen Shihua's forecast is basically similar to Wang Qing's, due to the base factor, chip shortage, it is expected that next year's automobile market will show a state of low and high, the pressure in the first half of the year will still be relatively large, and it is expected that annual sales or 27.5 million vehicles, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year.

In the long run, caucus is optimistic about the development of the "14th Five-Year Plan" automobile market, and it is expected that the sales volume of China's automobile market is expected to reach about 30 million units by 2025; of which passenger car sales will reach about 25.26 million units and commercial vehicle sales will reach about 4.75 million units.

Written | Beijing News shell financial reporter Wang Linlin

Edit | Song Yuting