Li Bingyang of China Automobile Data: It is predicted that the replacement volume of the automobile market next year will be 17 million units

Beijing News Shell Financial News (reporter Wang Linlin) On December 14, Li Bingyang, director of the market data room of China Automobile Data Co., Ltd., said at the 2022 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit that the macro economy pointed out the direction to lay a good policy foundation for the development of the automotive industry; next year's high-end consumer demand in the automotive market is expected to be strong, and it is expected that the replacement volume of the automobile market next year will be 17 million, and the number of passenger car exchanges is expected to be 8.77 million.

Photo courtesy of Li Bingyang interviewee

Li Bingyang said that since July, the market has shown a decline for several consecutive months, and the data of the auto terminal retail market in November was 2.03 million units, down 17% year-on-year. From the perspective of reasons, passenger cars are affected by the shortage of supply and chips, and the decline in the macro economy has led to a change in consumer income expectations; the decline in commercial vehicle sales is mainly due to the overdraft of consumer demand in the early stage.

From the perspective of this year's automobile performance, independent brands have performed better, one is that the ability of independent brands to cope with market crises and their adaptability to the market far exceed that of luxury joint venture brands; second, the lack of cores has led to no cars for the joint venture brand terminals to sell, and some demand has turned to independent brands. In the new energy vehicle market, it shows the characteristics of high proportion of increased purchases, high proportion of women, high proportion of luxury brands and high proportion of young users.

At present, the development of new energy vehicles shows a trend of strong and weak on both sides, and Li Bingyang believes that there are hidden worries. He said that in the fuel vehicle market, the A-class car market has always been the main consumer goods, and the proportion of personal consumption is basically 91%; but in the field of new energy vehicles, 95% of the A00-level market is personal consumption, while only 56% of the A-class market is personal consumption, and he believes that in the future, if the new energy vehicle market wants to make a qualitative leap, it is necessary to occupy the main consumption position in the A-class car market.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Wang Linlin Editor Bai Huabing Proofreader Liu Baoqing