At present, China's new energy vehicles have experienced explosive growth, and leading companies in the new energy industry have exceeded the market value of trillions. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that from January to October, china's new energy vehicle sales have exceeded 2.5 million.
From January to October, global sales of new energy passenger cars in the generalized sense reached 7.02 million units, and China's new energy passenger cars accounted for 51% of the world's share. Judging from the experience of the S-shaped growth curve, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association, said that the global electrification of automobiles has broken through the critical point and entered a period of steep growth. "I estimate that China's new energy vehicle sales will continue to grow to 5 million units next year, which is still limited by battery supply, chip supply and production capacity constraints."
"The market has grown faster than expected this year, but it's logical." Ouyang Minggao expressed his views on new energy vehicle technology and market highlights and medium- and long-term trends, saying that in 2021, the sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly month by month, and the marketization of new energy vehicles will enter a new stage of explosive growth. He expects domestic new energy vehicle sales to reach about 3.3 million units this year.
In Ouyang Minggao's view, the reason for the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market is the result of technological progress, product abundance, and policy strength. Specific to the technology, electric vehicle battery technology continues to improve and cost decline, the structural design of the battery system continues to innovate, such as large-scale applications such as blade batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries are equipped with cars on a large scale; in terms of products, electric vehicles have been promoted after years of brand image improvement, and a large number of new models have been introduced and modeled compared with traditional cars; in terms of policies, it is the continuation of subsidies, the price increase of double integrals, and the introduction of the national double carbon strategy to the expected guidance of manufacturers and young customers.
Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that the industrialization of new energy vehicles in China must go through three stages - policy-driven, policy + market-driven, and market-driven. Among them, the second stage is the stage of low-carbon and greening, and it is also the stage of networking and intelligence.
It is also reported that Soochow Securities invited chief economist, Ren Zeping, to analyze, for new energy vehicles. "It can be seen that this industry is like the real estate and heavy chemical industries in the early 2000s, doubling its growth every year, and the obstacle is nothing more than the lack of chips and insufficient production capacity, and there is no shortage of markets at all." Industry outbreaks from 0 to 10 tend to take 10 years, while from 10 to 30 it is likely to take only 3-5 years.
Ren Zeping further judged that in the future, the new pillar industries of China's economy will most likely be born in the field of new energy digital economy, and this field itself has certain advantages for China, with the further development of a new generation of information technology, the future of unmanned driving, shared travel, etc. will appear, and the industries will be trillion-level, detonating the new energy revolution. "The third energy revolution is the invention of electric vehicles, especially power batteries, which has brought about the large-scale use of renewable energy, and in this third energy revolution, China is very likely to overtake in curves." Ren Zeping said.
So, what contribution will the explosive growth of new energy vehicles make to carbon emission reduction? The IEA's global carbon neutrality roadmap released in May argues that global electric cars will grow 18-fold from 2020 to 2030, with annual sales reaching 55 million in 2030.
Ouyang Minggao believes that this is a more radical prediction given according to the low-carbon development goal. Relatively conservative foreign forecasts believe that global electric vehicle sales in 2030 will be 30 million.
Based on the research team's computational analysis and comprehensive judgment, Ouyang Minggao made an overall forecast for China's electric vehicle market: it is expected that in 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales will be between 7 million and 9 million; in 2030, it is expected to reach 17 million to 19 million. In terms of ownership, it will be close to 100 million vehicles in 2030.
Obviously, the transformation to new energy vehicles will have an important impact on energy conservation and emission reduction in the automotive industry. Ouyang Minggao took passenger cars as an example and said that in 2021, the value of carbon emissions per unit mileage of pure electric vehicles will be about 70 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer, and fuel vehicles will be about 176 grams of carbon dioxide emissions per kilometer.
"It is estimated that the carbon emissions per mileage of pure electric vehicles will drop to 20 grams per kilometer in 2035, which is more than 70% lower than in 2021." Ouyang Minggao analyzed that the main reason for the sharp decrease is the change in the energy structure, that is, the increase in the proportion of green electricity. As the proportion of green electricity increases, the emissions of electric vehicles will be greatly reduced.
Speaking of the evolution of the future industrial pattern, Ouyang Minggao believes that in 2023, Chinese and foreign brand new energy vehicles will enter a period of fierce competition.
"From the perspective of core technology, domestic brands are powerful." Ouyang Minggao said that batteries account for 60% of the technical content of electric vehicles, and this generation of battery technology in China is dominant. Compared with Japan and other countries to vigorously develop the next generation of all-solid-state batteries, although we still have a gap, but the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology and the important impact on the market pattern is estimated to be about 10 years.
As far as the supply chain is concerned, China's power battery industry chain is complete, 70% of the world's battery production capacity is in China, and the product supply is global. Ouyang Minggao said bluntly that from the perspective of vehicle brands, after the outbreak of electric vehicles, it is a challenge for old brands and an opportunity for new brands. "Under the new wave of electrification and intelligence, I am still full of confidence in China's own brands occupying an advantageous position in the future automotive industry competition."