Water Skin: "Talking about Stocks and Discussing Gold" goes north, north, north, all the way north to Shanghai

Water skin/text

Yesterday was a rehearsal for today, and today is a continuation of yesterday.

In the past two days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have shown an extraordinary trend affected by the news. Why is the trend extraordinary? Because the trend of two days is not typical. Yesterday, after being stimulated by the news, it rushed higher and fell back, but today there was a bottoming out trend.

Some people have calculated that after the last 10 central bank interest rate cuts, about 70% of the time the three major indexes are rising. In other words, there is still a decline 30% of the time. Today's trend tells us what is opportunity and what is probability?

Today, when it comes to rising, the decline of the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Board is still relatively obvious, the intraday decline of the ChiNext Board is up to 2%, the Intraday Decline of the Shenzhen Component Index is also 1%, and the final closing Of the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.38%, and the ChiNext fell by 1.09%.

Today, speaking of falling, the Shanghai Composite Index is another red market, and the final close is up 0.16%, which is up anyway. Of course, if you look at it from the candlestick chart, it is a yin line that opens high and goes low. Most stocks did not perform very well today, with 2716 stocks falling and 1715 rising stocks.

Today's trading volume is still tepid, still hovering around 1.2 trillion. However, northbound funds are today a large-scale inflow, with a total inflow of 7.95 billion yuan from the two cities. The main inflows are still Shanghai Stock Connect, with an inflow of 6.317 billion yuan and a Shenzhen Stock Connect inflow of 1.633 billion.

If you zoom in on the length of time to the last 5 trading days, you will find a very obvious change. Since 5 trading days, northbound funds have continued to flow into the Shanghai Stock Connect, 3 billion yuan on December 1, 3.9 billion inflows on the 2nd, 6.2 billion inflows on the 3rd, 2.1 billion inflows yesterday (6th), and 6.4 billion inflows today. Shenzhen Stock Connect has in and out, but the total of 5 trading days has also been 1.9 billion inflows. So from the flow of northbound funds, we know where the focus of "smart money" is.

There are also students statistics, found that in the past two days, northbound funds have mainly increased their positions in bank stocks and non-bank financial institutions, because their valuations are relatively low, and there is no doubt that they are the most direct beneficiaries of the RRR cut. At the same time, in recent days, the large adjustment has actually been the new energy sector, especially the lithium battery plate and the semiconductor plate. Therefore, today, not only the decline of the ChiNext index is relatively large, but the decline of the 50 index of the science and technology innovation board is also very obvious. At the most intraday time, the Kechuang 50 also had an adjustment range of about 1.7%, and there was still an adjustment of about 1.16% at the final close. In other words, the recent period has been a state of concept stock adjustment and low valuation blue chip stabilization.

We know that the news is a good news, on the one hand, the central bank is rapidly reducing the RRR with lightning speed, faster than all people think. On the one hand, it shows that the current situation is grim, on the other hand, it also shows that the management's determination to reduce the RRR is very large, and the expectations for the RRR reduction are also very large. So the RRR cut came quickly, very quickly, very quickly.

On the other hand, yesterday's Politburo meeting also put forward a very timely general policy for next year's economic work, especially for the real estate sector. The main ones have increased the construction of affordable housing, and commercial housing should meet the reasonable needs of consumers. The most important point is to ensure that the real estate market is healthy and stable and virtuous. The point is that the term "virtuous circle" didn't exist before. In other words, the relaxation of funds and the convergence of liquidity in the real estate market have aroused great attention from the management, and the main thing is to form a "virtuous circle", that is to say, the capital chain cannot be broken.

We saw that China Evergrande set up a risk mitigation committee last night, and in addition to Xu Jiayin as chairman, the other members are from investment institutions in Guangdong Province, including asset management companies and some state-run real estate development enterprises. That is to say, the main responsibility for the risk resolution of China Evergrande is probably already borne by enterprises in Guangdong Province. Combined with the reduction of the RRR, combined with the Elaboration of the Politburo's policy on the real estate industry, it should be said that it is a good foundation for next year.

We know that real estate is a pillar industry, and if real estate is unstable, the intuitive impact is that bank insurance will be dragged down by it. The so-called "three fools" of silver land protection is a grasshopper on a rope, only when the real estate is stable, the bank and insurance are likely to build a successful bottom, and it is possible to lay the foundation for next year's market.

Today, in addition to the "three fools" trend of silver land protection is very good, decoration, decoration, building construction, building materials and other related plates are all good as a whole, which is the chain effect.

Don't look at the bustle and don't be afraid of big things, always feel that the real estate market and stock market funds are seesaw phenomena. In fact, this is not the case, they are actually a relationship of one glory and one loss.

One sentence comment: all the way north.