The issue of China's Taiwan is China's biggest sovereignty issue and is also an issue of great concern to many Chinese at present.
As time continues, the mainland's tendency to use force to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is becoming more and more obvious, and the reunification of the two sides of the strait is getting closer and closer. So, if Taiwan returns to the motherland, what will happen to China? What about neighboring countries?
The Taiwan question
When Taiwan returns, China will usher in a triple change in its military, economic, and international standing.
Taiwan's impact on China's economy
Militarily, Taiwan's return would mean the complete failure of the first island chain of the United States.
This first island chain stretches from Northeast Asia in the north to Southeast Asia in the south, enclosing the entire Chinese mainland.
The existence of the first island chain is a very big blow to China, and the United States has directly used the existence of the first island chain to deploy military forces at China's doorstep, and has the ability to strike at China's coastal areas at any time.
Although with the improvement of China's overall military power over the years, especially the development of China's rocket force, the threat of the first island chain to the mainland has decreased a lot, but this threat still exists.
Chinese Rocket Forces
And the United States is also looking for ways to increase the threat to Chinese mainland and offset the impact of the development of China's rocket force. For example, in February 2024, the United States officially signed an arms trade agreement with Japan to export 400 Tomahawk missiles to Japan.
Japan's acquisition of these 400 Tomahawk missiles has greatly improved its strike capability, and it can directly hit the Chinese mainland. It can be seen how harmful the first island chain is to China.
After Taiwan's return, the first island chain on the east coast of the mainland is equivalent to a hole directly broken.
The United States can deploy military forces against Chinese mainland in the first island chain, and China can deploy firepower in Taiwan that can strike other parts of the first island chain and even Guam.
The Rocket Army launches missiles
Most crucially, when the PLA is stationed in Taiwan, China's nuclear deterrence capability will also be greatly enhanced.
The PLA's current nuclear submarines do not have a good military base because the sea depth in the waters around the mainland is insufficient, especially in the Taiwan Strait, where the depth is only more than 100 meters.
Although China also has the South China Sea, the concentration of nuclear submarines in the South China Sea will also greatly weaken its nuclear deterrent capability.
Because the biggest advantage of nuclear submarines is that they can strike from any sea area on the earth, causing a kind of "fear of the unknown" to the enemy. When China's nuclear submarines are concentrated in the South China Sea, it is much easier for the United States to target.
Chinese nuclear submarines
When the time comes, the United States will send a fleet with a medium-course air defense capability to guard the South China Sea, or deploy a medium-course anti-missile system in the Philippines, and China's sea-based air defense missiles launched from the South China Sea may be stopped.
But the deployment of the PLA's nuclear submarines in Taiwan is different, and the distance on the east coast of Taiwan, China, is the continental shelf and the continental slope, and the depth of the sea water is calculated in kilometers.
Therefore, when the PLA's nuclear submarines set off from the east side of the island, they can easily evade the pursuit of the United States and truly achieve "quiet" nuclear deterrence.
Submarine-launched missiles for nuclear submarines
Taiwan's impact on China's economy
Economically, China, which has completed reunification, is connected to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia from the sea.
When the mainland cannot grasp the median line of the strait, the Taiwan Strait is actually not under the control of the mainland.
As a result, the continent cannot be connected to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia by sea, and economic cooperation with Southeast Asia can only pass through the land.
For example, the current economic cooperation between China and ASEAN is relatively close to China because Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and China are connected by land.
ASEAN-China cooperation
However, countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines are not connected to China on land, so their economic cooperation with China is not very close.
This situation will naturally be subject to some restrictions in terms of economic development, so resolving the Taiwan issue and opening up maritime links between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia will help China to go further economically.
When Taiwan returns, the biggest impact on China's economy will be the dynamics of Northeast Asia.
The changes brought about by the military will be reflected in diplomacy, and the military changes brought about by Taiwan's return to China will affect the diplomatic direction of Japan and South Korea, and will make these two countries move closer to China.
In this context, the "China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area" can also be established. At that time, China had high hopes for the "China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area", and discussed with Japan and South Korea for many years, and also entered many rounds of negotiations.
However, because of the deterrence of Japan and South Korea by the United States, and the unexplained deaths of several officials in Japan and South Korea who supported the establishment of the "China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area", the matter was also shelved.
However, when Taiwan returns, China will also have a significant military deterrent to Japan and South Korea. In addition, the United States is very likely to back down on the first island chain at that time, and it is a sure thing that Japan and South Korea will favor China, and the "China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area" will finally be on the right track.
China-Japan-Korea FTA negotiations
Taiwan's impact on China's international standing
As for the impact on China's international status, there will be a situation of "China rising from the United States to the United States."
This is because the issue of China's Taiwan has not been resolved for a long time, and the fundamental reason lies in all kinds of suppression by the United States.
When Taiwan returns, it will undoubtedly tell the world that the United States can no longer suppress the situation.
In East Asia, China will have the final say, and many pro-American countries, including Japan and South Korea, including the Philippines, will have to consider their own positions.
China and the United States are playing a game over the Taiwan issue
In fact, at this point in time, some countries have already begun to question the status of the United States because the United States cannot cover it.
On February 22, local time, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-hyun publicly stated in an interview with the media: "If the United States betrays the South Korea-US alliance because of North Korean intimidation, it should give up its global leadership position." ”
In other words, "if the United States can't cover me, don't be the boss."
When China settles the Taiwan issue and completes reunification, will Japan and South Korea still think that the United States will be able to cover them?
And we also have to consider another possibility, that is, the United States intervened militarily in the Taiwan issue, and as a result, the Chinese People's Liberation Army was defeated, and China successfully completed its reunification.
Conceptual diagram of the fight against American aircraft carriers
After this most direct and intense military conflict between China and the United States, the world will believe that China's strength has caught up with or even surpassed that of the United States. Then the global hegemony of the United States will directly collapse, and China's influence in the international community will be greatly enhanced.
Resources:
[1] Upstream News: "South Korean Defense Minister: If the United States betrays the South Korea-US alliance due to North Korea's "intimidation", it should give up its global leadership position"
[2] Shangguan News · China, Japan and South Korea Foreign Ministers' Meeting Restarts: Trilateral Cooperation Wants to Get Back on Track, Leaders' Meeting Takes a Step Closer?