Straight News: Recently, the United States and Taiwan revealed that they held a naval exercise in April, but they also said that it was an "unexpected encounter", what do you think?
Geng Xin: This so-called "opportunity exercise" between the United States and Taiwan is one of the ways of military interaction between the two sides, and it also includes, for example, a small number of Taiwanese soldiers going to the United States for training, and US military personnel going to Taiwan to provide military training guidance or assist in the procurement of military equipment training, and so on. The so-called "Unexpected Encounter at Sea Operation" originally referred to actions to be taken in order to ease military tensions at sea in order to ease military tensions at sea when the ships of the two sides did not expect to meet. However, the US and Taiwan's actions this time were obviously premeditated and were not simply "encountered" by chance. It's just that the Taiwan side responded relatively positively, because he felt that it would be more beneficial to "520 inauguration" and so on. Obviously, the US does not want to hype up such an action, but it also wants to let everyone know about it. Therefore, the way of revealing the news through the media and revealing it after a period of time gives people a feeling of "still holding the pipa and half covering their faces".
A few days ago, the US Navy's Seventh Fleet publicly hyped up the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Halsey routinely passing through the Taiwan Strait on 8 May, sailing through waters where freedom of navigation and overflight on the high seas is enjoyed in accordance with international law. The Taiwan Sea channel through which the ship passes "does not belong to the territorial waters of any littoral state." A spokesman for the Eastern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army immediately accused the United States of "public hype." And in the statement, it said that the Eastern Theater of the People's Liberation Army "organized naval and air forces to follow and monitor the entire process of the US ship's transit operation, and dealt with it in accordance with laws and regulations."
Furthermore, on the evening of 10 May, Yang Tao, director of the Department of North America and Oceania of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, held a briefing and pointed out that for some time now, the United States has deliberately distorted and challenged Resolution 2758 adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971 on restoring the lawful seat of the People's Republic of China in the UN and expelling the Chiang Kai-shek clique, hyping up the so-called "theory that Taiwan's status is undecided" and advocating support for Taiwan's participation in UN meetings and activities. The United States also claims that the one-China policy of the United States is different from China's one-China principle. This is an attempt to systematize and systematize the false narrative of the United States, mislead international public opinion, and challenge the international consensus on one China. The Chinese side clearly reminded the US side that reversing the wheel of history will inevitably overturn, playing the "Taiwan card" will inevitably lead to burning, and engaging in "using Taiwan to contain China" will inevitably end in failure.
Two rounds later, today there was news that the United States did not "openly and in a high-profile" manner disclose the US-Taiwan exercise, which in itself reflects the contradictory dilemma of the US side. This time, the United States and Taiwan made a so-called "unexpected encounter" in the western Pacific and jointly staged some projects, but they were unwilling to make a public announcement. After a month, the news was revealed by the media, and this process and details told us a lot of signals, which are worth playing.
First of all, there have always been military exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and everyone knows this. Originally, according to the provisions of the Sino-US "817 Communique," the United States should gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan and make a final settlement after a period of time. At the same time, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement pointing out that the United States should have completely stopped arms sales to Taiwan, but considering that this is a problem left over from history, the Chinese Government has agreed to resolve it step by step on the basis of adhering to principles.
Only by thoroughly resolving the issue of US arms sales to Taiwan can we remove obstacles to the development of bilateral relations. The United States has promised to finally resolve this issue after a period of time, which means that US arms sales to Taiwan must be completely stopped after a period of time. Of course, the United States is not concerned about Taiwan with more than just a few weapons. He focused on Taiwan's important presence in the US strategy toward China. However, the problem lies in the fact that if the United States goes overboard in such an illegal military action, and the "Taiwan independence" elements continue to grow by taking advantage of the wings of the United States, they will inevitably form a game of antagonism in relations across the Taiwan Strait. At this time, the attitude of the US government has always been two words: "ambiguity".
Even if Biden continued to say so-called "slips of the tongue" that he would "assist in the defense of Taiwan", the US government subsequently revised it to say that the US government's policy would not change, and the menacing Trump made it clear that he would not make a clear statement on the issue of "assisting in the defense of Taiwan", because then he would be in a disadvantageous position when negotiating with China. Of course, these actions of the United States are more based on their own strength and the actual situation of Sino-US relations. Now, we have to distinguish: First, the United States is the leading party in such contacts between the United States and Taiwan, and there is no doubt that Taiwan will play a passive role no matter how active it is. "US-led" proves that this move does not seem big on the surface, but it is indeed a comprehensive assessment of the current cross-strait relations, especially the current comparison of cross-strait military strength.
Second, this also shows that the United States hopes to make a little bit of a move before "520" to send a slightly tougher signal, although these actions are not very strong, but it hopes to express the basic attitude of the United States in this way, which is the key point we need to grasp.
Therefore, in the final analysis, it is still a question of Sino-US relations, and in the final analysis, it is still a question of whether the "first button" of China and the United States should be buttoned well, that is, whether China and the United States are "enemies or friends." In fact, the Taiwan Strait issue has never been an issue that has to cause a conflict between China and the United States, not to mention that the United States is now approaching the general election, and it does not want to overstimulate the mainland side, nor does it want to overstimulate its own internal public opinion, because in the United States, now a Middle East, a Russia and Ukraine, have already made people turn their backs and chickens and dogs jump.
If there is another "Taiwan incident" hyped up, this will greatly stimulate the US general election and the political situation in the United States. It is not "adding fuel to the fire" but also "adding insult to injury", so although they actually did it, they also knew that this matter was done "in an unjustifiable name", so they were not willing to make it public, and at the same time, in terms of strength, the United States is no longer the United States that was commanding in the past. All these details have raised some new issues to us everywhere, that is, how should we deal with such provocations in which foreign forces and "Taiwan independence" forces collude with each other, but they are also fierce and strong at the outside?
Whether it is the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, the situation we are encountering now makes people feel that it is not a situation like during the Korean War, when we had no choice but to go to the battlefield, and at this time, our wisdom, ability, and comprehensive influence will be tested even more. If the United States thinks that it can change the direction of peaceful development and peaceful reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait by using such a small move, then the United States is too naïve, and if the United States wants to interfere in this process, it will only backfire.
Straight News: Putin's visit, what is your view on China-Russia relations?
Geng Xin: China and Russia, as the largest neighbors and comprehensive strategic partners of coordination, are both major powers in the world and permanent members of the UN Security Council.
In the course of modern history, China's revolution began with the "October Revolution" in Russia. It has been a long, intricate and great journey. Today, China and Russia have chosen different paths of development. However, China and Russia have followed the principle of independence, constructed their own national development models, and followed their own paths, while at the same time, the two sides have understood, learned, learned, and respected each other in a very mature way.
The development of China-Russia relations has a clear historical logic and a strong endogenous driving force. Especially in recent years, "exchanges between heads of state" have played an important strategic leading role. China and Russia have established a complete mechanism for high-level exchanges and cooperation in various fields, which has provided an important institutional guarantee for the development of bilateral relations. Over the years, President Xi Jinping and President Putin have maintained close working ties and met more than 40 times on bilateral and international occasions, drawing up a blueprint for bilateral relations and cooperation in various fields, communicating and matching major international and regional issues of common concern in a timely manner, and firmly steering the direction for the sustained, healthy and stable development of bilateral relations.
Against the backdrop of the "changes in a century", the political mutual trust between China and Russia has been consolidated, creating a new paradigm of major-country relations. China and Russia uphold the concept of friendship and win-win cooperation for generations, adhere to non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of any third party, firmly support each other in pursuing a development path suited to their national conditions, and support each other's development and revitalization. In the course of development, the relations between the two countries have become more mature and resilient, constantly rejuvenating and setting a new model of major-country relations featuring mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
In recent years, China and Russia have formed a new pattern of all-round and multi-level cooperation. With the joint efforts of both sides, the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia will reach US$240.1 billion in 2023, an increase of 26.3% over the previous year, and China has become Russia's largest trading partner for 14 consecutive years. The scale of two-way investment between the two countries has continued to grow, cooperation in large-scale projects in the fields of energy, aerospace and connectivity has been steadily promoted, cooperation in emerging fields such as scientific and technological innovation and cross-border e-commerce has gained strong momentum, and local cooperation is in the ascendant, bringing tangible benefits to the people of the two countries and providing a steady stream of impetus for the development and revitalization of the two sides.
China and Russia have worked closely together in the international arena to fulfill their responsibilities as major countries. China and Russia firmly uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core, the international order underpinned by international law, and the basic norms governing international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and maintain close communication and coordination within the United Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, the G20 and other international multilateral mechanisms, work together to promote a multipolar world and democratization of international relations, actively practice true multilateralism, promote the common values of all mankind, and advocate the building of a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.
Sino-Russian relations have gone through ups and downs for 75 years. Looking back at the past, we deeply feel that today's Sino-Russian relations have not come easily, and the friendship between China and Russia has endured for a long time and must be cherished. As President Xi Jinping said, history and practice tell us that the key to the success of China-Russia relations lies in the fact that we have found the right way to get along with each other.
Today, President Putin's visit to China will further elevate the friendly relations between China and Russia to a higher level. I wish President Putin a complete success in his visit!
Author丨Geng Xin, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".