Recently, Taiwan's Coast Guard has been in a very awkward position in the waters off Kinmen. After the 214 tragedy, the mainland coast guard has gradually taken over the administrative control of the Xiajin waters. In the past week, the Fujian Coast Guard has carried out five missions in the waters off Kinmen. In the video taken by Taiwan's Coast Guard, at least five mainland coast guard vessels can be seen, as well as seven other mainland official vessels operating in the waters near Kinmen, some with the words "China Maritime" written on their hulls and some painted with the China Coast Guard logo. This is the first time that the Taiwan side has observed that the mainland has dispatched a number of departments to conduct joint operations with maritime official vessels. On Thursday, the mainland coast guard conducted a law enforcement exercise in the waters of Kinmen, and four other coast guard vessels patrolled normally.
In the past, the Taiwan authorities drew two closed lines around Kinmen, called restricted waters and forbidden waters. These two lines are drawn very domineeringly, almost squeezing out the Xiamen waterway. The width of these two areas is uneven, narrower between Xiamen and Kinmen, and wider at Liaoluo Bay in the south of Kinmen. This time, the joint operation of the mainland coast guard and official vessels has approached the southern coast of Kinmen Island about 4 nautical miles, completely breaking through the so-called forbidden zone unilaterally set up by the Taiwan authorities. On many occasions, mainland official vessels appeared very close to the coastline of Kinmen, but the reason why they did not come any closer was that the water depth near the island was insufficient and there was a danger of running aground.
If the rules of engagement and the "preemptive" defense policy formulated by the Taiwan authorities themselves had been followed, the Kinmen defenders and the coast guard would have opened fire a long time ago. However, they did nothing but shout in vain with loudspeakers, and did nothing. This situation has made the Taiwan independence authorities very uncomfortable. Some DPP legislators have scolded the mainland coast guard for provoking Taiwan and undermining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Kuomintang legislators reported that mainland police patrols in Kinmen have become a "new normal" and that the so-called border drawn by the Taiwan authorities has lost its significance. Kuomintang legislator Luo Zhiqiang also demanded that the DPP government clearly explain what the Coast Guard and the military have done, and who should stand up and take responsibility for the current passive situation?
Taiwan's military responded that the waters near Kinmen are indeed the responsibility of the military, and the entry of mainland ships is an invasion of Taiwan, but the mainland's warships did not enter, and it was the maritime and coast guard that entered the official law enforcement vessels, so the relevant responsibility lies with the Coast Guard, and the military can only provide some support at most, such as monitoring the movements of mainland ships, analyzing the type information of entering ships, evaluating possible follow-up actions, coordinating response measures, and so on.
Then why did neither the Coast Guard nor the Taiwan military dare to step forward in the face of these activities carried out by the mainland at sea? According to an analysis by a person on the island, if the Taiwan side takes the initiative to open fire, it may trigger a cross-strait conflict. This is something that even the United States is trying to avoid. Moreover, the mainland has dispatched a coast guard, and the Taiwan authorities can only verbally threaten and dare not really use force. If naval ships were to be sent in response, the situation would escalate. The PLA's naval and air forces can take action to further reduce the space for Taiwan independence forces to operate. Some Taiwan scholars believe that at present, the Taiwan authorities are helpless against the activities of the mainland coast guard and are unable to take countermeasures because the US Government has not yet instructed the Taiwan independence authorities on what to do. The poisonous frog strategy designed by the United States has not yet been deployed in place, and Taiwan's military and civilian population are not ready for long-term resistance.
At the same time, China's maritime sovereignty in the Spratlys has not been affected in the slightest. Recent foreign commercial remote sensing satellite imagery shows that China has amassed a large number of ships in Thitu Reef, Ren'ai Reef, Xianbin Reef and other places to prevent the Philippine authorities from infringing on China's maritime rights and interests. In the waters of the Diaoyu Islands, China's struggle for sovereignty over Japan has never ceased. This shows that the China Coast Guard has sufficient troops and equipment to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It has not been a few days since Lai Ching-te took office as the leader of the Taiwan region. It can be expected that after he takes office, he will face an increasingly complicated situation. Now it is Kinmen, and in the future it will be Matsu, Penghu, and even the main island of Taiwan. Since he likes to be a "pragmatic" leader, let him be pragmatic.