#7张图总结! Is the market sentiment at its peak? #
Since A-shares bottomed out on February 5, they have come out of a beautiful rebound curve one after another. After the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3,000 points, the upward momentum of A-shares seemed to have weakened, and it was seesawing back and forth. Has the current market sentiment peaked? The director will summarize it with seven charts today.
1. 杠杆情绪——融资余额
The financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets bottomed out on February 8, and the proportion of financing purchases in the market volume was calculated, and it has continued to fluctuate at a high level of more than 8% since February 19. The rebound in the financing balance and the proportion of purchases actually reflects the current active leveraged funds in the market.
2. Foreign Sentiment – Northbound Funds
Observing the direction of northbound capital flow, the net inflow has returned to the level of 60.7 billion yuan since February, reflecting the gradual recovery of foreign investment sentiment towards A-shares.
3. Institutional sentiment – public positions
As a major institutional investor, the position of public funds in stock investment can also reflect the current institutional investment sentiment to a certain extent. According to Wind estimates, as of March 25, the equity position of open-end funds in the whole market was about 65.48%. The fund's equity position increased significantly at the end of January, and then gradually cashed in and controlled the position during the market rebound.
4. Basic sentiment - the size of the newly established equity-biased fund
In recent years, under the volatility of the A-share market, the investment sentiment of the people has rebounded at a high level, and the share of newly established stock-biased funds in the past three years has shown a gradual downward trend. Since March, the share of newly established stock-biased funds has increased slightly, indicating that the current investment sentiment of the people has picked up, but it is still in a relatively cold position.
5. Investor sentiment – the number of new investors
Similar to the investment sentiment of the people, the investment sentiment of shareholders has picked up in February this year, and the number of new investors has rebounded to 1.96 million, but the value has fallen in March, indicating that the current investment enthusiasm of shareholders still needs to be further repaired.
6. Trading Sentiment – Turnover Rate
Since February, the turnover rate of A-shares has risen rapidly, and it continued to fluctuate at a high level in March. Historically, a 2% turnover rate is an obvious cut-off point. At present, the turnover rate of all A is stable at more than 2%, indicating that the market transaction has stabilized and recovered, and the transaction activity is high.
There is still room for recovery in A-shares
On the whole, the current market sentiment has recovered from many parties, but it has not yet reached the overheating situation.
Combined with the valuation of A-shares, the current yield spread of Wind's A-share bonds is still at the high quantile of 91.59% in the past ten years, which means that the relative cost performance of stock investment has exceeded the time of more than 9% in the past ten years. With the gradual recovery of domestic economic fundamentals, the market still has room for repair.
#市场情绪##杠杆情绪##交易情绪##股民情绪#
