Businessmen must read: Trend judgment of the FMCG industry in 2024 - in the era of shrinkage, involution is the inevitable result.
The year 2023 has passed, and the complex market environment of this year has symbolized that the FMCG industry has entered a new round of adjustment, and the uncertainties in the future will increase, which is a battle of both danger and opportunity for enterprises.
Anxiety about the future is not about the economy being good or down, but about uncertainty.
2024 sticky FMCG industry trend judgment: the era of shrinkage will continue.
The limit of the consumption of FMCG is determined by the limit of human body intake, and it is impossible to increase indefinitely. Insufficient intake will affect the healthy growth of the body, and too much intake will also affect the health of the body. For example, it is impossible to drink unlimited amounts of alcohol, water, sugar, tobacco, etc.
2013 was the peak of the total volume of most FMCG categories, and since then FMCG has entered the era of shrinkage and lasted for 10 years. For example, liquor is down 55% in 10 years, and beer is down 30% in 10 years.
In the era of shrinkage, if one company grows, it must be the result of the decline of many other companies.
In the era of shrinkage, involution is the inevitable result. Especially mass consumer goods.
The result of involution is to increase the break-even point of the industry until more enterprises die and the industry concentration increases.
When shrinkage is inevitable, the inevitable measure to hedge shrinkage is high-end. The industry began to shrink in 2013, and in 2016, FMCG found the antidote to "mainstream gear shifting".
Mainstream gear shifting means that the price band of mainstream products moves forward. For example, the mainstream price of mineral water has risen from 1 yuan per bottle to 2 yuan per bottle.
At present, there are two ways to deal with the era of shrinkage: one is to continue to "mainstream shift", such as the recent price increase of a certain brand of tea;
The second is high-end. For example, in the liquor industry, the high-end of Moutai has opened the ceiling of the industry.
The FMCG industry has always been a "sweet spot" in the eyes of many entrepreneurs. First of all, because the FMCG market demand is large and updated quickly, which means that there are more business opportunities. At the same time, FMCG consumers have a wide range of consumer groups, from daily necessities to snack foods, covering almost everyone's life needs.
With the improvement of living standards and the change of consumption concepts, consumers have higher and higher requirements for quality and experience. This means that FMCG brands with innovation and quality assurance will have more opportunities. But at the same time, the market competition is becoming more and more fierce, and how to stand out has become a big challenge.
