For every additional NEV sold, there is one less Aisin AT in the world

In today's auto market, many joint venture brand model markets are being eaten away by independent new energy vehicles. In fact, in addition to the car brands that we are familiar with, auto parts suppliers such as the once-familiar "Aisin" are also being weakened.

The golden age of Aisin

Once upon a time, when promoting self-owned brand and joint venture brand models, they did not forget to add a sentence of "Aisin 6AT", and high-end models even added "Aisin 8AT". In that era of traditional car buying, which must be called the "three major pieces", important accessories such as the gearbox are naturally an important selling point. This also makes Aisin a "sweet spot" in the car market.

Once Aisin gearbox with technical patents formed a strict technical barriers, other car companies can hardly bypass, can only survive in the gearbox market by buying its gearbox or patents, Volkswagen Group switched to dual-clutch, Nissan Mitsubishi defected to CVT, technology home Honda in order to bypass the patent to get out of the balance shaft AT, GM, Ford in order to bypass the Aisin patent and even joint research and development of the gearbox, the early Chinese car companies can only choose manual transmission.

Aisin's 6-speed automatic transmissions have long been known for their smoothness and reliability, but their supply is not available to all automakers. Since Toyota holds a 22.2% stake in Aisin Seiki, the vast majority of Aisin's 6-speed transmissions produced in China are supplied to Toyota's models.

In order to start the market for new models, many domestic car companies will use Aisin 6AT as a selling point, and more equipped models will also use Aisin 8AT. Not only do you pay a lot of money for the gearbox, but you also have to pay a lot of money for the gearbox matching.

However, Aisin will not let you "take advantage" easily, even if you pay real money to buy it. There was once a story about GAC Trumpchi GS8 being "stuck in the neck" by Aisin.

In 2017, GS8 equipped with Aisin 6AT was born, and sales were very good, and orders were rising, but because of the impact on the sales of Highlander and other reasons, Aisin cut off supply, which led to a certain degree of GS8 sales decline and missed the golden period, and later a similar situation appeared in Changan CS55 and CS75. Although this has not been directly confirmed by many parties, it is indeed an indisputable fact that the GS8 lacks an Aisin gearbox during the peak sales season.

The gearboxless era is here

Just like the change of dynasties and the rise and fall of wealthy families, the glory of an enterprise will not last forever, let alone a parts company.

The rise of China's new energy vehicles has not only changed the shape of the auto market, but also changed the layout of the automobile industry chain. In the past, the three major parts of a car were the engine, gearbox, and chassis. Today, the three major components are the motor, the battery and the intelligent driving system.

The era of new energy vehicles no longer exists, and no one is targeting Aisin, but everyone is trying to find a way to bypass the mountain of gearbox. For a long time, many people did not have much hope for the breakthrough of China's automobile industry in the gearbox, and could even be said to be a little desperate. Indeed, compared with other parts, the gearbox structure is complex, the patent technical barriers are high, and the independent brand has been breaking through, but it has not been completely successful.

If we can't turn over the mountain, then we can bypass it and go faster? China's new energy vehicle industry is exactly what it does.

In the era of new energy vehicles, various forms of new energy models have invariably bid farewell to the gearbox. PHEV hybrid models, such as BYD's DM-i series, have no gearbox at all, and Chery, Geely, and Great Wall's DHT hybrid mode, although there are 2 or 3 gears, but it is not a traditional structure of transmission. The REV extended-range model uses a direct drive motor, and the engine only serves the function of generating electricity, and does not require a gearbox. Not to mention the EV model, which has a very simple structure with only a battery and a motor.

However, Aisin's development in the fields of reducers, E-CVTs, and motors is not smooth, and the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle independent industry chain makes Aisin unable to catch up. It is only a matter of time before it is eliminated by China's new energy vehicle industry chain.

IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, ASIN CORPORATION ANNOUNCED ITS RESULTS FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE FISCAL YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2022. The revenue for the current period was 3,211.1 billion yen (about 23.6 billion US dollars), an increase of 15.6% from 2,868.4 billion yen in the same period last year. Operating profit for the period was 27.064 billion yen, down 80.5% from 139.1 billion yen in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for the current period was 23.613 billion yen, down 76.4% from 99.878 billion yen in the same period of the previous year.

Although not all of Aisin's markets are in China, the impact on Aisin will be significant due to changes in the industrial structure of China, the world's largest automobile producer and consumer. In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is about 28%, which means that for every 100 vehicles produced, 28 vehicles no longer use traditional transmissions compared to previous years.

In the past November, according to the data of the Passenger Association, the domestic penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded the historical mark of 40%. It is conceivable that Aisin's performance in the Chinese market this year will reach a new low.

The torrent of the era of new energy vehicles is rolling in, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase, which is a foreseeable trend. Those supply chain giants that have maintained a strong presence in the traditional automotive industry may not be able to act again.

Xiaoxiang Morning News reporter Hu Xiong