Can the top-heavy Pacers stop the Celtics from advancing to the Finals?

Serious basketball club

2024-05-21 18:59Posted in Tianjin Sports Creators

After the Pacers defeated the Knicks to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, the American media gave the odds for the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time. Among them, the Celtics are -1500 (bet on 1500, return 1600 if hit), and the Pacers are +790 (bet on 100, if hit with 890 with interest)!

It's clear from this set of numbers that the Celtics have an overwhelming advantage in this series. So the question is, why are they so favored? Or is it true that the Pacers don't have a chance?

From the Pacers' perspective, if they have a chance to pull off an upset in this series, it's because they've managed to overwhelm the Celtics' defense with their bombardment and roster depth. The Pacers lead the NBA in points per game in the regular season, averaging 123.3 points per game, 30.8 assists per game, and shooting 50.7 percent from the field, all of which are league-highs.

And during the playoffs, their offensive production hasn't diminished much, and the Pacers have led all teams in the playoffs with an average of 112.9 points per game. Haliburton (20.1 points and 10.9 assists per game in the regular season) is the engine of the Pacers' offense, but the Pacers are far more than Haliburton himself who is a headache for opponents.

Siakam leads the Pacers in playoff points this season with 21.2 points per game, and he and Haliburton (18.3) and Turner (17.6) can both take over the game. McConnell and Obi Topping are dangerous figures on the Pacers' bench, and former Celtics player Nesmith can bring plenty of energy on the court.

However, if they want to face the Celtics, who have the most balanced offense and defense in the league, do the Pacers really have a chance?

In the long regular season, the Celtics ranked first in the league in offensive efficiency per game, second in defensive efficiency per game, and undoubtedly the best in the league in points per game, which is why they were able to get the league's first record. In the playoffs, although there is no Porzingis, the Green Army's offensive and defensive efficiency is still excellent, and their offensive efficiency per game is second in the league and third in the league in defensive efficiency per game. One of the Celtics' standout defensive stats is that in eight of the 10 games they've played in the playoffs, they have limited opponents to 100 points or less, which is enough to send the Pacers up and down.

On the offensive end, they have five players who have scored in double figures in the playoffs. In addition to the double tanhua who can provide consistent scoring, the person who needs to be mentioned in particular is Derrick White. In this year's playoffs, White has been impressive, averaging 18.2 points per game, including 43.5 percent from three-point range. In contrast, the Pacers ranked fourth from the bottom of all playoff teams in defensive efficiency per game in the playoffs, and how to stop the Celtics' offense is also a top priority for the Pacers.

At the same time, as the star of the Green Army, Tatum has taken on more roles in this year's playoffs. In the second-round series, he led the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per game, which also reduced Tatum's personal offensive efficiency. But in the final three games of the Eastern Conference semifinals, Tatum's form has picked up significantly, and he scored 33 points in both games. A resurgence of Tatum is enough to give the Pacers a headache.

Because of this, as an offensive team that is very bad at defense, the Pacers will have a lot of problems when facing the Celtics. They have to be able to limit Tatum and Jaylen Brown perfectly, and the only player on their roster who can defend one-on-one is Nesmith. But as mentioned above, Celtic's offensive means are abundant, and even without Porzingis, it will be difficult to limit Celtic.

Meanwhile, the Celtics have been the favourites for the title over the past few seasons. They reached the Finals in 2022 and Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2023. Compared to the Pacers, the Celtics have more playoff experience and more intelligence. Once the series gets to the scorching moment, they know how to win better than the Pacers.

The Celtics are not without their own weaknesses and concerns, and that is the injury of Porzingis. As the most important signing for the Celtics last summer and an important piece for the team to challenge for a championship, his absence will undoubtedly put pressure on the rest of the Celtics' stars.

The news is now certain that Porzingis will miss the first two games of the series, and it is unknown when he will return. According to Green coach Mazzulla, "Porzingis works hard every day and wants to get back to health as quickly as possible, and there's no way to ignore his desperate desire to get back to the team in time." ”

Combine all of the factors mentioned above, plus plenty of rest time for Celtic and the home advantage they have. Aside from Porzingis' injury, they almost have what it takes to overpower the Pacers. The Pacers have done well enough this season to build their system in the regular season, reaching the midseason finals and reaching the Western Conference finals for the first time in a decade in the playoffs. However, it will be difficult to expect them to beat the Celtics.

To sum up, this round prediction: Celtics 4-1 Pacers advance to the Finals!

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