China's economic growth forecast for next year will be raised! Who will break out first in the property market and stock market? Hu Xijin, Wang Xiaofei, Meng Xiaosu, and other big names have spoken out
On December 21, the 2023 Annual Conference of Sina Finance and the 16th Golden Kylin Forum officially opened, with the theme of "The Road to High-quality Development in a Changing World".
At the theme forum in the morning, Steven Barnett, Chief Representative of the International Monetary Fund in China, Qiu Xiaohua, Chief Economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, Chief Economist of Jufeng Investment and Former Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Meng Xiaosu, former head of the National Housing Reform Research Group, former Chairman of China Real Estate Group and "Father of China's Affordable Housing", Ren Li, Chairman of Quanguo Fund, Hu Xijin, Senior Media Person, Senior Partner of Far East Holding Group, Jiang Chenghong, chairman and general manager of Far East Electric, Wang Xiaofei, founder of Maliuji brand, Li Guangdou, a well-known brand strategy expert, CCTV brand consultant and founder of the brand competitiveness school, and Ma Jingfen, co-founder of Chucheng Manor, attended and shared wonderful views.
Raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.4% this year and next year
Steven Barnett, the IMF's chief representative to China, said in his speech that the global economy has shown impressive resilience. However, this does not mean that the future is bright. In fact, the global economy is staggering, not running.
The International Monetary Fund's latest forecast is that global growth will fall from 3.5 percent last year to 3.0 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year. The global economy is experiencing significant damage from a series of pandemic-triggered shocks, which are often the most severe among those that are least resilient.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of about 3 percent over the next five years, while raising its forecast for China's economic growth this year and next year by 0.4 percentage points, to 5.4 percent this year and 4.6 percent next year.
In Steven Barnett's view, China and the world face the challenge of increasing growth in the medium term, and the solution is to advance structural reforms to boost growth. For example, trade can promote growth. Economic integration has helped billions of people become richer, healthier, and better educated. However, global trade tensions are on the rise due to a surge in new trade restrictions. Research by the International Monetary Fund suggests that the long-term cost of trade fragmentation could be as high as 7% of global GDP. "The world needs trade to become the engine of growth again, not to be divided. He stressed.
Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, chief economist of Jufeng Investment and former director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that under external pressure, the mainland economy will continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 5% this year, and the mainland's economic growth rate will continue to rank among the world's large economies. The structure, grade, and quality of the mainland's economy are all quietly undergoing qualitative changes.
However, Qiu Xiaohua also pointed out that there is still a "temperature difference" between the performance of the micro field and the macro field. Although China's economy can grow by more than 5% this year, this is based on last year's low base of 3%. Therefore, the average in the past two years is only about 4 percent, and we should continue to raise it; second, at present, the final demand of mainland society is insufficient, supply is greater than demand in some areas, and economic recovery has not yet reached the ideal goal; third, many enterprises are still in a state of meager profits and losses, and we cannot ignore them and should continue to attach importance to them.
"As long as we follow the tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference, 'seek progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down', take high-quality development as the primary task, and take economic construction as the central work, I think next year's Chinese economy will continue to rise on the basis of today's temperature, and I think everyone can look forward to the prospect of China's economic warming," he said.
The property market and the stock market, who will break out first?
Meng Xiaosu, the former head of the national housing reform research group, the former chairman of China Real Estate Group, and the "father of China's affordable housing", believes that the biggest blockage in the development of the national economy is mainly the real estate industry. The stock market and funds are affected by real estate, and the downturn in real estate itself has affected more than 100 industries.
Meng Xiaosu said that in the case of a downturn in the real estate market, it is necessary to establish a new model of real estate development, which is to establish a special housing system, improve the housing market system and housing security system, and the shortcoming is the construction of affordable housing. In Meng Xiaosu's view, if the construction of affordable housing can be increased, the dual-track system can operate normally, and it can also solve the problem of whether housing prices can be reduced, which young families and new citizen families are most worried about.
Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, chief economist of Jufeng Investment and former director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said when talking about the real estate field, the deep adjustment of the real estate field has not yet ended, so the difficulties of real estate-related enterprises are indeed more obvious. However, at present, we have seen the right direction for solving these problems -- the mainland should use the transformation of the real estate model and the construction of the three major projects to promote the real estate industry to return to the road of stable and healthy development as soon as possible.
Qiu Xiaohua said that in the future, with the creation of a normal financing environment for real estate, with the recovery of confidence in the consumer side, and with the establishment and improvement of the two-track management system of the state for affordable housing and the market for commercial housing, the development potential of mainland real estate can be further released and will move towards a relatively stable development track.
Hu Xijin, a well-known media personality and a "famous retail investor", talked about his views on the stock market and property market. As to whether the stock market should rise first or the housing market rise first? Hu Xijin said that Lao Hu, as a shareholder, wanted to say, "Of course, the stock market should rise first." He pointed out that because the stock market involves 200 million people (retail investors), if they are unhappy, they will scold the whole environment every day.
Hu Xijin also said that the stock market was very bad, which was beyond his expectations. But the state has really come up with a lot of policies, and at this time he has to believe in the country, so he has confidence in the stock market, believing that it will rebound anyway, although he is not sure when, but he is willing to use time to buy his future gains.
Ren Li, chairman of Quanguo Fund, pointed out that the stock market and the property market seem to be on par, and everyone's feelings are just like the winter at this moment. But no matter how cold it is, you never doubt that spring will come, it's just that it's cold enough that we put on padded jackets. Therefore, although it is cold, there are bright stars shining in my heart, and I believe that the future is still bright.
How can the new generation of entrepreneurs do a good job in business inheritance?
Regarding the advantages and disadvantages of the family inheritance business, Wang Xiaofei, the founder of the Ma Liuji brand, said that he left the company in 2013 and left the entire catering track. It wasn't until December 2020 that a brand-new company was founded, "This brand-new company doesn't have any shares from the previous elders or family members, and it doesn't have a penny of equity, it's a company with a new starting point." He said.
Wang Xiaofei emphasized that the new company has completely cut off from the previous in terms of business model, profit model, and future development. Going back to the old way is that the past 20 years have been in vain, not with the main goal of opening a store, the offline store is just a port for drainage, and the ultimate goal is to make a good product.
Jiang Chenghong, senior partner of Far East Holding Group and chairman and general manager of Far East Electric, said that the core advantage of family enterprises comes from the fact that they are a community with a shared future, with both prosperity and loss, and will create business efforts and create value towards the same goal to the greatest extent. There is a great challenge to the topic of future corporate succession.
Li Guangdou, a well-known brand strategy expert, CCTV brand consultant, and founder of the brand competitiveness school, pointed out that the family businesses that have been developing stably for the longest time in the world are family businesses, and those century-old stores are named after individuals, and they are all family businesses. What are the advantages of a family business? First, the cost of communication is very low. Second, the bloodline is stable, it is an ultra-stable structure that will not be destroyed, and it can be passed on from generation to generation.
Wang Xiaofei also talked about the recent hot Dong Yuhui incident, he believes that Dong Yuhui is a very good professional manager with the ability to judge himself, but because he is a literati, his work experience or business ability may not be able to support him to create a new and larger platform. "Because in the enterprise, in the society, the role of the division of labor should be very clear, some people are suitable to be presidents, but he may not be a good CEO. Some people are a good CEO, but they are not necessarily a good chairman. You can't deny the contribution of the whole team because of a momentary success, and you may not be able to build a very good company all at once by relying on one person. He said.
Ma Jingfen, co-founder of Chu Cheng Manor, talked about several suggestions for young people in her speech, and she said that people must pass the training. "Experiencing that hardships not only cleanse your soul, temper your will, and strengthen your determination, but also enrich your experience, stick to your ideals, and finally achieve the success that makes you who you are. Therefore, people must be tempered. She said.
Ma Jingfen also emphasized that one must know what one is living for. For business, making food is to be responsible for everyone's body, so we must do it seriously and steadfastly, so that everyone can eat it is good for the body, this is to know why we live, is to serve the people. "Although making money is self-interest, we can't make money with a clear conscience, and we must realize that we are serving human beings. She said.
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