Free Market Prediction: Klay returns to Warriors George to join 76ers Harden only has one year to guarantee his contract

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2024-05-17 19:41Posted on the official account of Live Bar in Hong Kong, China

(The original article was published on May 15 by Grant Hughes from the Bleachers, and the content of the article does not necessarily reflect the views of the translator)

The 76ers will use their salary space this summer to bring in at least one key player in the free agent market. It's also certain that the Magic will use their flexibility to target the scorer. In addition, the Clippers will have a tricky offseason, with both Paul George (player option) and Harden (free agent) likely testing the free agent market. Once again, the Pistons will struggle with what to do with the resources at hand, and the Nuggets will be under pressure from the salary cap.

Aside from these reasonable predictions, everything else in the free agent market is unknown. Grant Hughes from the Bleachers has made some bold predictions about the free agent market this offseason, and the accuracy rate may not be very high, but there is a logical basis behind it.

Klay Thompson will return to the Warriors

Judging by some recent rumors, Klay has a clear and reasonable path out of the Warriors, with Shams of The Athletic stating on the podcast that "Magic and Klay are mutually interested." The Magic, who recently lost to the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, have the ability to clear nearly $65 million in salary space this summer (although the actual number could be closer to $35 million), and the Magic clearly need to supplement their outside projection. Klay's athleticism has declined and he briefly lost his starting spot with the Warriors this season, but he still ranks fourth in the league in three-point shooting total, shooting 38.7 percent from three-point range. Klay is clearly a good fit for a team like the Magic that has enough defensive ability but doesn't have enough space and scoring ability to support the offensive end.

If sentimental, Klay would return to the Warriors on a two-year contract that coincides with Curry and head coach Kerr's contract extension timelines. Assuming it's a two-year, $40 million contract, the total value could increase to $45 million when the incentive clause is included. That's less than the two-year, $48 million contract that Klay reportedly rejected last offseason, and it's likely to be lower than the Magic's offer. Klay is a player with a lot of self-esteem, and he may choose to accept a bigger contract and role in order to prove that he can still play like a star.

At the end of the day, Clay may realize that he can't go back, and he doesn't need to prove anything in his career. Moreover, with a career gross of $266 million, he is more than capable of giving up a bigger contract just because he wants to play with the same team until he retires.

Paul George will join the 76ers

Smart people would think that Paul George would end up with a four-year max contract with the Clippers, and that the rumors about his eye-to-eye relationship with the 76ers were just a ploy he used to raise the price with the Clippers. After all, George and Leonard have been tied together since the start of their stay with the Clippers, and Leonard has signed a contract extension that will run through the 2026-27 season. While it's sad that George and the Clippers didn't reach a contract extension, it's hard to imagine the Clippers letting him go with the new arena coming open next season.

However, George is not out of the question. He has no confidence in Leonard's health throughout the regular season and playoffs, mainly because Leonard has never played a full season healthy since they joined forces in 2019. Here's a fact that you need to take a moment to digest that George would be more willing to trust Embiid's health than Leonard's. The latter has never played more than 68 games in a single season in his career, which is enough to show how bad Leonard's attendance is.

At the end of the day, George has good reason to believe that the combination of Embiid and Maxey has more upside than the combination of Leonard and Harden, and that doesn't take into account the uncertainty of Harden becoming a free agent. Compared to the Clippers, the 76ers have unmatched salary space flexibility, a first-year MVP, and a rising star on a max-paid contract. This top-tier talent and malleability makes it possible for George not to be a major player in the team (he has never proven capable of a role) while still receiving a contract at the team's top selection level. If he returns to the Clippers, George could face the same situation as he did in the past few years.

Even with some logical basis, predicting that George will leave the Clippers and join the 76ers is still bold. He and Leonard have long been considered to have a close relationship. Add to that the fact that George's hometown is in Southern California, and the move to leave his hometown to join an Eastern Conference team would come as a surprise.

Patrick Williams will head to the Raptors

The Raptors' need for a tall, two-way forward is a good illustration of how quickly the NBA roster can change. Not so long ago, the Raptors were experimenting with what many called the "2.06-meter program" without position, during which it was precisely this type of player that they over-relied on. Scottie Barnes and McDaniels are the only players with such players under contract for the Raptors next season, which means a significant portion of the Raptors' projected salary space could go to free agents who can play as No. 3 or No. 4 on a flexible roster.

Pawe has struggled with injuries for two of the four seasons of his career, and if Pawe, who becomes a restricted free agent, can get a big enough offer, the Bulls could forfeit the match. The Bulls need to consider DeRozan as a free agent, and the team tends to operate in a "win now" model, which could marginalize Pawe, a 22-year-old former lottery pick, and mean the Raptors can pry away the forward, who has not performed well so far in his career, with a competitive enough offer.

With Quickley, Barnes and Barrett, the Raptors' core roster is tending to be younger, which is a good fit for Pawe, who is about to start his 23-year-old season. Pawe, an offensive player who doesn't possess the ball, hasn't yet shown the ability to create his own shots, but he's quietly improved his career three-point shooting percentage to 41 percent. If Pawe is a little more prolific, focused on being a dangerous catch-and-shoot and can defend at multiple positions, he would be the best candidate to partner the other players in their early 20s on the Raptors.

Malik Monk got a contract close to 100 million yuan

Monk's career has never been more dominant than it is now, and as one of the most dangerous scorers in the free agent market, he is expected to make the most of his strengths in his quest for a big contract. That's bad news for the Kings, who can only offer the elite-level sixth man a four-year, $78 million contract unless they make major changes to the entire roster to free up salary space.

The Magic, hungry for scoring ability, should be interested in Monk, and so could the desperate Pistons. The Raptors have an open position at the No. 2 position, and the Spurs should be chasing any player who can both shoot and pass. All of these teams would be risking spending huge sums of money for a player who is playing the best game of his career in a contract year, and that kind of bid would cost Monk far more than the Kings can afford.

Monk, 26, is in his prime, finishing in the top five in the Sixth Man of the Year poll for two consecutive seasons and leading the league in breakaway assist percentage this season (averaging at least six breakaways per game). Monk will be offered a shockingly lucrative contract, or at least as a surprise to those who don't realize that he is averaging 21.3 points, 7.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds every 36 minutes this season. Smart teams will know that Monk's bench role limits his production, when he's actually a quality starter who deserves a four-year, $90-$95 million contract. In this way, perhaps the bolder prediction is that Munch will return to the king.

Tobias Harris and Fontecchio's next contract will be close

Tobias Harris has a more successful career resume, outperforming Fontecchio even in in-form seasons. This season is Fontecchio's second season in the league, starting just six games in his first year of career. Still, it's hard to feel like Harris's trade value is at a career low. Harris, 31, had a terrible time after All-Star Weekend, shooting just 52.9 percent from the field and struggling defensively. What's more, his salary next season is as high as $39.3 million, which makes Harris's mediocre performance even worse than a star-level contract.

Fontekio is three years younger than Harris and is shooting 40.1 percent from three-point range this season. Perhaps more importantly, the restricted free agent played 724 minutes less than Harris and made 76 more three-pointers. If we accept that Harris is now more of a supportive, scoring-first role player than the team's second choice from his last contract, then Fontecchio is arguably an expert in Harris' role today. Harris's career resume and past salary will make it easier for the team to convince themselves that it makes sense to spend money on him, which is not to say that Fontecchio will also sign a very large contract. However, with Harris' form declining and the young Fontecchio's value as an ace spacer evident, the average annual salary for the two players' next contract will eventually be closer than most expected. Specifically, Harris' next contract will only be $3 million more than Fontechio's annual salary.

Hartenstein will receive more guaranteed salary than Claxton

Claxton is averaging 11.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game this season, both surpassing fellow free agent center Hartenstein (7.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game), and he also has the switching ability that many teams crave from big men. However, on the open free agent market, Hartenstein will still be worth more than Claxton, which has to do with the quiet return of the traditional big man across the league. Versatility is still crucial, but the demand for the actual tonnage of big players is rising again. The league's MVPs for the past four seasons have been big men who don't switch defenses, and the center of the small-ball lineup can't limit them at all, and the trend is not limited to Embiid and Jokic at the moment. If you look at the teams that are still competing in the second round of the playoffs, they need the 2.13-meter-tall, 113-kilogram Hartenstein more than the faster but thinner Claxton.

The Celtics have Porzingis and Horford, the Timberwolves have Gobert and Towns, and the Mavericks also have Gafford and Lively. Even big-man players like the Thunder's versatile Holmgren and the Cavaliers' Jarrett Allen can dominate the box and score in the low post. That's not to say Claxton doesn't have strengths, he's younger and more mobile than Hartenstein, and his blocking ability is there for all to see. But the Knicks' big man, who was only thrust into the starting spot after an injury to Mitchell Robinson (another traditional big man), outperforms Claxton in all the high-level aggregate stats from base plus/minus to estimated plus/minus to player efficiency, and he's also better against heavy bigs who are back on the court.

Tyus Jones will sign a contract that will be higher than Russell's total salary

Russell was an All-Star and started this season with the Lakers in the spotlight. Russell is averaging 17.8 points and 5.8 assists per game in his career, which is better than most point guards in the free agent market. However, Tyus Jones on the market will still get a bigger contract than Russell. While Russell has the upper hand in fame and base numbers, Jones also has a salary of $14 million this season, which is less than $4 million less than Russell's, and the market is already valuing them closer than you might think. And last offseason, Russell didn't have many suitors, which is why he returned to the Lakers with a 1+1 contract with a total price of $36 million.

Tyus Jones, who leads the league in assist-to-turnover this season for the sixth straight season, is better at playing the role of a cautious playmaker than most. In contrast, Russell has more talent and scoring ability, but he's not the kind of player who can make the people around him better. For the most part, he struggled to fit in. If Russell exercises his player option to stay with the Lakers for another year before entering the free agent market next year, that prediction is correct. Theoretically, Russell's execution of the player option would indicate that our prediction was correct.

Jones is a plug-and-play player, and teams like the Magic will see him as a starter, while the Pistons will see him as a proper locker room veteran leader. Smart teams would be happy to sign him on a three- or four-year contract that is higher than the mid-level exception, and at the same time, judging by Russell's two-year contract last offseason, most teams are not keen on signing him to a long-term contract. As long as Russell doesn't attract more interest this offseason than he did last year, Jones could prove that prediction right with a four-year contract that totals more than $50 million.

James Harden will only get a guaranteed one-year contract

In an interview with Sam Amick of The Athletic, Harden said he opted to exercise the final year of his contract with the 76ers before requesting a trade in an effort to "go to an environment where you can get a big contract and have a chance to compete for a championship." If the 10-time All-Star thinks he can get a contract now that is longer and more paid than the 1+1 he signed with the 76ers in 2022 after giving up his 47 million player option, he'll be disappointed.

Harden's last contract had a salary of $33 million for the 2022-23 season and a player option of $35.7 million this season. While the potential total value of his contract signing this summer may be close to his last, it's hard to imagine a team offering a former star who turns 35 and is on the decline by next season for more than a year, especially a player who has claimed to want to play until retirement at four different teams. Harden's resume has seen numerous trade requests and disgruntled departures, which makes it too risky to strike a deal with him. For the Clippers or any other team interested in Harden, it's best to make decisions season by season so that Harden doesn't get upset or slip too quickly before his contract expires.

Harden is averaging 16.6 points, 8.5 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game this season, and the stats show he's still more productive than most veterans who have played 15 years. But such stats should be considered the ceiling for Harden next season (as should his attendance rate of 72 games, which is his highest since the 2017-18 season), and combined with his usual unpredictability, Harden is not a player who would be comfortable signing a multi-year guaranteed contract.

The Denver Nuggets will lose two rotation players

Pope turns 31 shortly after this year's trade deadline, which means he may only have one last chance to get a high-salary contract on the free agent market, but he has a player option for next season. Pope will opt out of his contract and will immediately become a hot target in the market, signing a four-year contract that could be close to the $100 million mark. If Pope exercises his $15.4 million player option for next season, the Nuggets will find that the total salary has already surpassed the dreaded No. 2 line. That pain would have intensified if Reggie Jackson had exercised the player option as well, or if the Nuggets had brought back Châl through the team option. If the Nuggets can successfully defend their title, management may be willing to face a hefty luxury tax penalty, but the Nuggets have never been willing to take on excessive luxury tax penalties.

Pope is one of the league's best guard role players, having won championships on two different teams, and his elite-level backcourt defense and reliable three-point shooting (shooting over 39 percent for four years in a row) make him stress-free on any team, which would raise the cost of keeping Pope to a level that the Nuggets probably won't want to match. The Nuggets have been quietly preparing for this, and they have five guards and wingers no older than 25 — Braun, Watson, Straussor, Pickett and Tyson — none of whom will be paid more than $3 million next season. That's not to say that the Nuggets can be just as good when these players replace Porter and Reggie Jackson in the rotation, but it's clear that the Nuggets have a contingency plan in place for this summer.

D'Anthony Melton will get a $60 million contract

Melton has only played 38 games with the 76ers this season and has a worrying back injury, but he will still be offered a contract of at least $60 million on the free agent market. The 25-year-old, who has averaged double-digit points per game over the last three seasons, shares the plug-and-play trait of Pope but is not paid as much. Considering he's still five years younger than Pope, it's fair to say that just $60 million is a great deal to lock in the prime of Melton's career. It's easy to get a four-year mid-class exception contract, with a starting salary of $12.4 million, and the salary goes up every year, and the total price should be around $54 million. And our projection is only a few million dollars higher than this figure, which should not be difficult to achieve.

Melton will have a lot of suitors, with the Magic, Pistons, Raptors and Jazz all likely using salary space to sign him. The Thunder, Spurs and Hornets are also good next crops, and they can all bring in Melton for a higher price than the mid-range exception. In addition, the 76ers' own excessive salary space is another factor driving Melton's value increase. While the 76ers will spend some money on star players before signing back their free agents, teams pursuing Melton may feel they need to offer a higher price to prevent him from returning to the 76ers, who are supposed to be championship contenders. That's good news for Melton, who has made less than $37 million in his six-year career.

原文：Grant Hughes

Compiler: Li Taibai

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