(This article is based on Mr. Sima Nan's video program, and the content has been deleted)
How can China's economy solve the various problems it is facing?
At the end of the year, various think tanks and media units in Beijing invited some big coffee researchers to discuss this issue, and I also watched the analysis and discussion of various think tanks on this issue.
I think Professor Cao Heping of the School of Economics at Peking University said it very well.
Professor Cao Heping believes that the various obvious problems of China's economy today are not caused by a specific policy now, but are accumulated by the negative factors built into multiple economic growth cycles in the past.
Real estate, which used to be the main supporting force for China's economic development, is now undergoing economic transformation, and we can no longer rely on the increasing financialization of real estate, which alone will have a significant impact on the economic downturn.
From 1944 to 1984, how did the Reagan reforms in the United States solve the problems of inflation, unemployment, and stagnation accumulated in seven economic cycles in the 40 years after the war.
It is nothing more than throwing the production capacity abroad, the mid-end technology in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Europe and other places, and the low-end technology in China, ASEAN, South America and other places, and this pot is relatively successful, the United States only left a little rust belt city problem.
Now the economic cycle is positive for growth and negative for "Dutch disease". This is called inflation, job throw-out, asset bubbles, low growth, deterioration of the terms of trade in economics. (Dutch disease refers to the phenomenon in which an abnormal prosperity in one primary product sector of a country's economy (especially in small and medium-sized countries) leads to the decline of other sectors. In the 60s of the 20th century, the Netherlands, which is already a major exporter of manufactured goods, discovered a large amount of oil and natural gas, and the Dutch government vigorously developed the oil and gas industry, with a sharp increase in exports, a surplus in the balance of payments, and a prosperous economy. However, the booming natural gas industry has dealt a severe blow to the agricultural and other industrial sectors of the Netherlands, weakened the international competitiveness of other export industries, and by the early 70s of the 20th century, the Netherlands suffered from rising inflation, declining exports of manufactured goods, lower income growth rates, and increased unemployment, which is internationally known as "Dutch disease")
This "Dutch disease" is as true in the West as it is in China. For example, real estate, which is a typical "Dutch disease", occurs in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, Ordos and other urban areas, all of which are soaring housing prices, ostensibly this is learned from the Hong Kong model, but in fact, Tokyo 1990-2000 is the same, and Japan's "lost thirty years" also began at that time.
In China, some people who are known as real estate experts like to shake their wit, saying that with his methods, China will soon usher in 30 years of recovery growth.
Let's talk about what you can do. In fact, their arguments are nothing more than shaking their wit, they do not respect the history of China, nor do they respect the history of the economic development of the United States, Europe, and Japan, they will only look at the problem partially and boast of their "divine power".
Professor Cao Heping believes that earlier, the sky-high housing prices in some cities in Asia and Indonesia, and earlier, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, including Detroit, Toledo, Yangstang, Akron, and Philadelphia in the Rust Belt of the United States, although the problem is not all in the real estate sector, but it is also the "Dutch disease" accumulated by multiple cyclical growth.
Now it seems that there are two ways to solve the problem of China's economic growth:
First of all, it is necessary to shrink the balance sheet on a large scale, to quickly and orderly strip out the non-performing assets of local finances, enterprises, and local financial institutions, and to dispose of them on a large scale in the asset disposal market, and at the same time to issue money quickly and on a large scale and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Now do we dare to do this? It is difficult to say the possibility of the big financial mouth doing this.
The second is to rely on large-scale technological changes and breakthroughs, and the networked sharing economy supported by digital technology has this potential. At present, it is a more feasible method to upgrade large-scale advanced infrastructure, stock infrastructure and housing digitalization, coupled with large-scale technological revolution in specialized, special and new laboratories.
In other words, new infrastructure and digital twin cities can survive the cycle with relative confidence.
Now that the United States is leading public opinion in the world, and European countries are following the Americans, all the anti-thieves at home and abroad have begun to fool, shouting that China's economy is no longer good. But the question is, is China's economy really failing?
Now confidence is more important than anything else, we must have the confidence to survive the cycle, and we must not let the outside public opinion be fooled and lame. More innovative wide-caliber technological progress is the only way for our economy to get out of the trough.
In addition, I have noticed that many experts like to talk about problems, and as a result, the more they talk about them, the more evil they say, the more serious they become, and they also make up two new words to indicate that the problem is more serious.
But what is the solution?
What we want is a solution to the problem, we want constructive opinions, and without constructive opinions, what's the use of just repeating the problem?
China's economy used to grow close to double digits, but now it is growing at a rate of 5.00 percent, so it seems that China's economic growth has indeed slowed down. But then again, in today's world, how many countries with such a large economy maintain a growth rate of 5.00 percent?
China is the only one, so to speak.
Therefore, focusing on economic development and doing everything possible to grasp the economy is now a top priority, and we also hope to hear more experts' insights. If you have any unique opinions, please leave a message in the comment area, goodbye!
Reference article: Cao Heping
Responsible editor|Hu Yan Wang Debo
Part of the picture |