Will Modi be happy? The economies of Japan and Germany are sluggish at the same time, providing opportunities for India to catch up

Nansheng said in this life

2024-05-17 10:25Published in Guangdong financial field creators

The list of the world's top four economies in the first quarter of 2024 has finally taken shape! On the whole, the economic development of China and the United States continues to maintain a relatively high degree of activity, while the economies of Japan and Germany are unusually sluggish. Among them, the German economy fell by 0.9% year-on-year, and it has been declining for four consecutive quarters.

According to information published by the German Federal Statistical Office, the German economy shrank by 0.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of last year, 0.5% in the third quarter of last year, and 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter of this year, some media had predicted that the decline would converge.

Unfortunately, the preliminary results of the current release show that Germany's GDP actually fell by 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, and the pressure on development has become greater and greater, rather than weakening. It is expected that for the whole of 2024, it will also be a decline, not an increase.

The Japanese economy has also turned to decline after the previous quarters of growth! According to the Japanese Cabinet Office, the economy in the first quarter of 2024 contracted by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, 2% annualized quarter-on-quarter, and 0.2% year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% in the previous quarter.

In dollar terms, Germany's GDP has an advantage of more than 100 billion

In local currency terms, the first quarter of the Japanese and German economies, excluding rising prices for goods and services, declined, rather than grew. However, when inflation is factored in, the situation is different, with nominal GDP in both Japan and Germany hitting record highs.

Among them, Germany's economy expanded to 1,049.32 billion euros in the first quarter, and Japan's GDP increased to 149.785 trillion yen in the first quarter. The yen and the euro are different currency units, and to participate in international comparisons, they need to incorporate exchange rate factors - the US dollar is usually used internationally.

After conversion, Germany's economy reached $1,139.3 billion in the first quarter, while Japan's GDP fell to $1,008.3 billion in the first quarter due to the impact of the depreciation of the yen, narrowly falling below the trillion dollar mark. Germany consolidated its position in third place, while Japan relegated to fourth.

Nansheng noted that since April, it has been a "violent period" of yen depreciation, and it is expected that Japan's economic scale in the second quarter will most likely fall below the trillion dollar mark. Due to the inaction of the Bank of Japan, we also expect that Japan's GDP will fall below the $4 trillion mark for the whole of 2024.

The United States and China are the top two

Among them, the mainland's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to rank among the world's major countries. The economy size of the completed first quarter was 296299 billion yuan, or about 4,171.6 billion US dollars.

The U.S. economy grew by 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter (3% on a seasonally adjusted basis), and the nominal GDP was $6,926.1 billion. Compared with Japan and Germany, China and the United States have stronger economic development potential, and the cultivation and incentive effect of emerging industries is also more outstanding.

The sluggishness of Japan and Germany has brought opportunities for India to catch up and surpass

India's economic report card for the first quarter has not yet been released, and it is expected to be no less than 7%. This achievement undoubtedly brings new development opportunities in the global "new round of geopolitical headwinds", and also provides great support for Modi to once again serve as India's prime minister.

A number of media outlets have recently announced that if the economies of Japan and Germany continue to maintain the current sluggishness, India's GDP is likely to catch up and surpass in the next two years and rise to the third place in the world. This prediction is reasonable for Nan Sheng!

The Modi government is actively promoting the expansion of the manufacturing sector, and although there have been some setbacks, the results have also been remarkable. For example, in 2022, India's mobile phone equipment exports will break through $10 billion, and the total number of vehicles exported in 2023 will rise to 746,400 units.

This is not touting India! Compared with the mainland's economic structure and the achievements of the industrial transformation and upgrading strategy that it is actively promoting, India is certainly not the same. But compared to most other developing countries, India's achievements are also unmatched.

As long as the current momentum is maintained, even if this "momentum is not perfect", India's economy is very likely to overtake Japan and Germany in the next two years to become the world's third largest economy after the United States and China. This article is written by Nansheng, welcome to forward, comment, leave a message and share!

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