Text/Angen
Editor/Qi Fei
Andrei Belousov, who had just been nominated by President Vladimir Putin as Russia's new defense minister, commented on his new position for the first time on May 13, specifically mentioning issues such as troop salaries, military housing and hospitalization, "The salaries and various allowances of military personnel in the Northern Military District have been raised to at least 200,000 (rubles), and in principle people get much more there." But life is more than just cash payments and subsidies, we have things to do here. "Life has taken a different path." Belousov said.
On May 14, Belousov spoke at a meeting of the Defense and Security Committee of the Federation Council of Russia. He made conscription a top priority.
The press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, explained the reason for the nomination. He said that appointing a civilian as defense minister would increase the country's openness to innovation and innovative ideas, and that "the defense must be absolutely open to innovation, introduce all advanced ideas, and create conditions for economic competitiveness."
Peskov also stressed that Belousov's arrival in the Ministry of Defense will not change the "current coordinate system", since the General Staff headed by Army General Valery Gerasimov will continue to be responsible for military work.
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that it is very important to include the economy of the powerful sector in the national economy in order to adapt it to the current development
On May 15, Putin introduced the new defense minister at a meeting with commanders of major military regions. He said that Belousov's task as defense minister will be to calculate the relationship between "artillery and butter", that the Russian government's increase in defense and security spending is due to the need to fulfill all social obligations to its own people, and that this relationship between "artillery and butter" must be organically integrated into Russia's overall national development strategy, and that "I hope Andrei Removich (Belousov) will be able to accomplish this task in the best possible way."
In particular, Putin mentioned that Belousov has recently been involved in "a number of dual-use projects, in particular, the development of military drones and other drones." In 2023, Belousov announced that Russia plans to build 18,000 large and medium-sized UAVs in 2024 and launch and develop a new industry - UAV system manufacturing.
"The Minister of Defense is the one who is responsible for providing the army with equipment and scientific means, he will visit factories, sign contracts and supervise the introduction of new technologies to the army, which is a field that is more technical, scientific and industrial than the military itself." Alexei Zhivov, a Russian military expert and political science expert, analyzed, "And this is exactly what Belousov is strong in as an experienced 'general manager'." He will be responsible for the rearmament of the army and the fight against bureaucracy, while the Chief of the General Staff will have overall responsibility for work in the field of military operations. ”
Then-First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov (center right) and other colleagues at the Civil Aviation Infrastructure Exhibition 2024.
Why was Shoigu removed from office?
At the end of April, as soon as the news of the arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of accepting bribes came out, there was speculation that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would not be able to secure his position.
But replacing Shoigu on the grounds that his subordinates are corrupt or that Putin doesn't like it is obviously far-fetched. This comes at a time when the Russian army is preparing to launch another large-scale military operation in the Kharkiv region, and for no special reason, Putin would not have made such a surprising personnel arrangement – by contrast, the arrangements of the prime minister and other ministers are not surprising.
"In fact, it was the Commander-in-Chief of the State Guard of the Russian Federation Viktor Zolotov and the General Director of Rostec Sergei Chemezov who successively blew the wind on Putin's side and expressed their strong dissatisfaction with Shoigu." Andrey Pertsev, a Russian political observer, wrote in the Russian political discussion website Riddle that these contradictions are a conflict between the Ministry of Defense as a consumer and the military-industrial complex as a supplier of military products — the military complains about the long production time, problematic quality and maintenance difficulties of weapons; In turn, the head of the military-industrial complex criticized the growth of corruption within the military and the high expectations of military-industrial products.
Both Zolotov and Chemezov want to install cronies in the defense minister, and Alexei Dzyugin, the current governor of Tula Oblast, who served as deputy defense minister, is the candidate that Zolotov wants, but Putin does not seem to want to see that, given that the rebellion of Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary army, still haunts him.
Eventually, he chose Belousov, a civilian economist with no military background, as defense minister. These hardliners in the army did not expect that they drove away the "stranger" Shoigu, but came an even stranger Belousov.
In November 2023, Belousov attended the opening ceremony of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
But at the same time, Putin wants to appease these hardliners. A day after the working talks between Putin and Gyōmyeong, the Kremlin announced that it would remove the latter from his post as governor of the Tula region and appoint him as an assistant to the Russian president, who would oversee Russia's military-industrial complex, sports affairs and the State Council. Another of Putin's cronies, Nikolai Patrushev, the former secretary of the Federal Security Council who was replaced by Shoigu, has also been appointed assistant to the Russian president and will oversee shipbuilding.
"From Putin's point of view, changing the defense minister is an ideal time, and it is indeed in line with his approach." Arnaud Dubien, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations and Strategic Studies (IRIS), analyzed, "In general, when people are in a difficult situation or under environmental pressure, they do not revise their actions. From the Kremlin's point of view, it would be better to remove Shoigu from his post in the context of today's military superiority than in the fall of 2022 when the Russian army retreated from Kharkiv or Kherson. ”
Civilian economists take the stage
Putin has a tradition of choosing civilians for defense ministers. Serdyukov, who had previously served as defense minister before Shoigu, also had no military background, having moved from head of the tax bureau to defense minister and led a series of military reforms and the downsizing of the Russian military, only to be ousted after only five years due to a corruption scandal. Strictly speaking, Shoigu also served only as a minister in the Ministry of State Emergency Situations, and he himself never served in the army. Belousov, on the other hand, had no experience in the army.
The 65-year-old Belousov was born in Moscow in 1959, the son of his father, Rem Belousov, who served in the Soviet Aerospace Forces, experienced the Great Patriotic War, and after winning the war, trained to become an economist. The elder Belousov worked at the Institute of the State Planning Commission of the USSR, served as the head of the Academy of Social Sciences of the Central Committee of the CPSU, participated in the formulation of Kosygin's economic reform program in the mid-60s of the 20th century. Belousov's mother was a radiochemist who studied rare elements.
In 1981, Belousov graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. From 1990 to 2006, he served as a senior researcher and director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and served as an advisor to many Russian prime ministers, including Primakov, Stepashin and Kasyanov.
In 2006, on the recommendation of the then President of Sberbank, German Greev, Belousov officially began working for the Government of the Russian Federation as Deputy Minister of Economic Development. In 2012, Belousov was appointed Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Just a year later, he became Putin's adviser on economic affairs, a position he held until 2020. In January 2020, he was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia.
Belousov, as First Deputy Prime Minister, reports to President Vladimir Putin on November 7, 2023.
In 2014, Russia was forced to get involved in eastern Ukraine and annex Crimea, a move that drew widespread Western condemnation and subsequent sanctions against Russia, which Russian economic strategists widely believed would be devastating to the country's economy, while Belousov openly sided with Putin, arguing that the damage could be contained and that Western sanctions were "insignificant" for the Russian economy.
A hard-line defender of national interests rather than corporate interests, Belousov has long advocated for strict regulation, increased government investment, and a broad state presence in the economy. During the coronavirus pandemic in 2021, he said that Russia's metallurgical industry had significantly increased its revenues, but these excess revenues did not contribute to the federal budget, and that these metallurgical industry workers "extorted 100 billion rubles from the state."
Belousov (left), then Deputy Minister of Economic Development, and Andrei Dutov, head of the Federal Industry Service, talk before the start of the meeting.
Back in 2018, such an idea arose in Belousov's mind. In a leaked letter, Belousov proposed to confiscate the excess profits of 14 large metallurgical and chemical companies. Both of Belousov's remarks caused the company's share price to plummet.
However, Belousov is not a die-hard, but an open-minded scholar who is "open to innovation". Described by a former Belousov as efficient in planning for the next few years and as one of the first to support Russia's use of drones, Belousov has convinced Putin that the digital economy and blockchain are critical to Russia's future.
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian economist and professor at the University of Chicago, commented that Belousov is convinced that "innovation happens because the government invests in innovation, and economic growth happens because the government forces companies to invest." These beliefs are fully consistent with Putin's ideas.
Publicly, Belousov not only discusses economic topics, but also advocates conservative values, while at the same time considering that the statement that "the West is an enemy of Russia" is false. "Russia can become the guardian of traditional Western values. Although the West said goodbye to these traditional values and turned to something else...... Although this is a somewhat paradoxical story. Belousov once described his opinion.
Many people mentioned that Belousov was a workaholic. Belousov also mentioned this in an interview with the media on May 13. He ridiculed the media that he implemented a "24-hour work system".
Belousov, who was nominated as Russia's defense minister, said in a recent interview that he follows a 24-hour workweek.
According to those who know him, Belousov keeps Orthodox icons and religious books in his humble office. "Some of his colleagues in the government or others didn't like him very much because he was just a little bit different. He has a mind and is a loyal fighter for the state and Putin, but with a very peculiar servant mentality. Again, deeply religious. ”
Army conscription is a top priority
As soon as the news of Belousov's appointment came out, the Western media exclaimed that Putin was preparing for a long and expensive war.
As defense minister, Belousov will manage Russia's huge military spending. In 2024, Russia's military spending will account for about 30% of the federal government's budget, about 36.6 trillion rubles. Peskov also mentions this, "for well-known reasons, we are gradually approaching the situation in the mid-80s of the 20th century, when the share of defense spending was 7.4% of GDP." ”
"The combination of industry and a pure economist with a very strict and clear understanding of the leading role of the state in the economy may be the key to transforming Russia's highly militarized economy into a real war economy." Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, analyzed.
On May 14, at a consultation meeting of the Federation Council on the appointment of Belousov, Belousov bluntly stated that "now everything should be directed towards the victory of the Northern Military District." "After months of preparation, Russia's Northern Military District is launching a large-scale offensive against Ukraine's Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts from Ugroyti, Liptsy and Volchansk.
He also said that one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Defense is to provide the army of the Northern Military District with modern weapons and equipment, in particular, artillery ammunition, missiles, personal protection, special communications, unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare equipment.
Army recruitment will also be a top priority for the new defense minister. "Recruiting the Armed Forces, we are not talking about mobilization, but about some kind of emergency measures. We are discussing planned measures, a process that has already begun, including an appeal to citizens and particularly important contracts. Belousov said.
From Putin's point of view, the appointment is a clear indication of his desire to take a more pragmatic, incorruptible and professional approach to the military's needs.
Belousov (front right) waits in the Kremlin for Putin's presidential inauguration on May 7.
A former Russian official familiar with Belousov told me that there were no rumors of corruption surrounding him, and that he or his family enjoyed any lavish lifestyle, and that he was known to be a martial arts enthusiast like Mr. Putin, who had practiced karate and sambo as a young man.
Belousov has even more ambitious goals. Before the current Russian presidential election, Putin delivered a state of the nation address to the Federal Assembly, proposing that Russia should develop into the world's fourth largest economy by 2030. Belousov, who was the first deputy prime minister at the time, repeated the goal on several occasions, saying that if Russia maintained sustainable growth of at least 2 percent a year and gradually accelerated to 3 percent, it could overtake Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030.
Tatiana Starovaya, a senior fellow at the Berlin-based Carnegie Center for Russia and Asia, believes it's too early to talk about whether Belousov will make things take a certain leap forward. "His new appointments reflect not so much a special trust in Putin as a reflection of his marginalization in the previous cabinet. It is no secret that Belousov's relations with the financial system have always been strained. ”
After all, in Russia, anyone who talks about what will happen in three or five years will be ridiculed. According to the author's observation, in the current Russia, there is no conclusive conclusion on what kind of agreement will be reached to end this war, which has lasted for more than two years. The actions of the Russian leadership and elites are based on the fact that Russia cannot afford to lose this war, and in order to ensure that it does not lose this war, the country must continue to put pressure on Ukraine, no matter how long it lasts.
War itself has become a goal, and it has multiple purposes. Only by avoiding failure can you create new opportunities for career advancement and business ventures, as well as boost the economy. And the Russians are not planning for a peaceful day away from war for the time being.