In the first quarter of 2022, the domestic new energy vehicle market continued the hot trend of the previous year. According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars from January to March were 1.070 million units, an increase of 146.6% year-on-year. In March, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 28.2%, an increase of 17.6 percentage points compared with the penetration rate of 10.6% in March 2021, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands reached a gratifying 46%.
New energy vehicles have achieved such results in the context of the decline of car purchase subsidies year by year, which shows the strong market demand. However, the massive wave of price increases that began in February has also plagued consumers.
Since March alone, Tesla has raised the price of Model 3 and Model Y models for three consecutive times, and its Chinese-made Model Y high-performance version has risen by 30,000 yuan in just a few days; BYD has raised prices for the second time on March 15; ideal, Xiaopeng has made 10,000 to 20,000 yuan of price adjustments early, and Weilai has also announced official increases in recent days; even SAIC-GM-Wuling, which focuses on the ultimate cost performance, has also raised the price of 3 models such as Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, with an increase of 4,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan. In addition, CAR companies such as GAC Eian and Nezha have also increased prices to varying degrees.
More than one relative and friend consulted the author: will the price of new energy vehicles increase again? When will the price fall back?
As we all know, the general rise in new energy vehicles is caused by the high price of upstream raw materials. Among them, the power battery, which accounts for one-third of the cost of electric vehicles, is the largest source of cost pressure.
The "Bronze Report" pointed out that the current increasing "lithium battery shortage" is caused by the joint action of multiple links in the supply chain. Last year, global inflation triggered international commodity price increases, kicking off the price increase of lithium battery raw materials. The more direct factor is that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the expansion plan of related enterprises has not landed as scheduled, and the supply of lithium batteries at the bottom of the cycle has encountered market growth that exceeded expectations, ultimately leading to short supply.
According to rough statistics, compared with the beginning of last year, the average price of cathode materials for mainstream ternary lithium batteries has risen by 108%, the average price of cathode materials for lithium iron phosphate batteries has risen by 182.%, and the electrolyte of lithium iron phosphate batteries has risen by an average of 190%.
Bronze Technology predicts that the price of key raw materials for power batteries will continue to rise. Because the upstream barriers of the power battery industry chain are mainly concentrated in resource reserves and capital barriers, they can be overcome in a short period of time.
Bloomberg new energy analyst Kwasi Ampofo also believes that the shortage of battery materials will run through 2022, and the prices of lithium, graphite and cobalt may remain high and are expected to fall back in 2023; the price of nickel is expected to fall before the second half of next year.
Not only that, the chip shortage problem that originated in 2020 has not been alleviated until now. A new energy vehicle uses 1000 to 2000 chips, and the degree of restriction can be imagined. Coupled with the current epidemic caused by the suspension of production and work of suppliers and automakers, it is expected that new energy vehicles will be in a state of strange goods in the short term, and terminal prices will not decline. Even the author learned from the sales offices of BRANDS SUCH ASD and Weilai that there is likely to be a new round of price adjustment actions in the next few months.
Although price increases are inevitable, how to increase different car companies have their own calculations. It is not excluded that there are people who touch fish in muddy waters and take advantage of the fire to rob. Who is the conscience car company of the "Pusheng era"? In fact, it is not difficult to distinguish.
The most obvious thing is that until now, it is still carrying a new energy brand that has not increased in price, which is definitely "interesting enough". It should be known that core components such as power batteries and chips belong to the seller's market, and car companies located in the most downstream of the entire industry chain are the most passive.
Before the fourth quarter of last year, the cost pressure caused by the rising price of battery raw materials was borne by battery manufacturers. However, since the fourth quarter, battery factories have collectively increased prices, and the pressure has come to the end of the vehicle company. In fact, most of the current new energy vehicle companies have not achieved profitability, so it is not realistic for them to bear the cost of raw material price increases for a long time.
At present, the new energy brands that have not yet been adjusted are rare, and people are familiar with the ARCFOX Polar Fox, SAIC Roewe, Extreme Krypton and a few others. Although these car companies recently issued an announcement to adjust the price from May 1, after all, it has been hard for 6 months, and has left enough time for consumers to react, compared with those brands that pass on the cost to users early, or suddenly increase prices that catch users off guard.
At the same time, it should be pointed out that judging whether the car company is "cutting leeks" or reasonable price adjustment is not simply bullish or less, but to see whether the increased cost can match the battery pack equipped with the vehicle.
According to industry estimates, the theoretical cost of each new energy vehicle with a power of 50kWh will increase by 13,000 yuan (lithium iron phosphate battery) / 15,000 yuan (ternary lithium battery). The larger the battery pack, the higher the natural cost increase, and based on this, it is not difficult to estimate whether the official rise of each new energy product is reasonable.
Nowadays, the international situation is turbulent and the economic environment is tightening, whether it is enterprises or consumers, they have their own difficulties. But what is comforting is that even if the prospects are full of uncertainty, the new energy automobile industry is still staged in the picture of enterprises and users "running in both directions".
Some car companies try to adjust the configuration and improve the experience to reduce the negative feelings caused by price increases to users; some brands repeatedly consider price adjustment policies, hoping to reduce the burden on users as much as possible.
"In one quarter, the industry generally increased prices twice, and we are also discussing." Fan Jingtao, deputy manager of Baiqi Blue Valley and executive deputy general manager of BAIC BJEV, said that ARCFOX Polar Fox is still relatively affected by the rise in raw material prices.
Fan Jingtao said frankly that the main sales products of ARCFOX Extreme Fox are priced below 300,000 yuan (the price after subsidies), and if the price is adjusted, it will break through the subsidy line, and for consumers, the price of the terminal without subsidies will be higher. Therefore, they are also considering adjusting their rights, including financial discounts, replacement subsidies and other customer rights. I have to say that the price adjustment is indeed a difficult decision for ARCFOX Polar Fox.
Fortunately, consumers' enthusiasm for new energy vehicles has not been affected too much, and the sales data in the first quarter shows that users are willing to pay more time and money for their favorite cars.
Here, the author also wants to remind everyone that in the short term, the terminal price of new energy vehicles should only rise and not fall. Just need users can seize the precious "window period" and take advantage of the last batch of car companies to adjust the price as soon as possible. At present, the phrase "buy is earned" is really not a fool.