For the current South Korea, the most important diplomatic relations are the Sino-South Korean relationship and the United States-South Korea relationship, China is South Korea's largest trading partner, and because of historical reasons and military garrison reasons, the United States actually controls South Korea's national defense, how to seek a balance between China and the United States, South Korea naturally hopes to strive to do not commit crimes, and such a principle has always been one of the important goals of rational South Korean leaders. However, due to the increasingly fierce competition between China and the United States, there is less and less room left for South Korea to meet each other. On April 24, South Korean President-elect Yoon Seok-wook was interviewed by The Wall Street Journal and Yonhap News Agency and expressed his views on U.S.-China relations. Yin Xiyue believes that the tension in Sino-US relations now brings great risks and opportunities for South Korea. Yoon seok-yue believes that China and the United States can find a path to maintain peace and common prosperity, but South Korea's foreign policy should not continue to be "ambiguous and capricious", otherwise it will bring diplomatic risks to South Korea.
First, the new president of south Korea is not friendly to China
Yoon Seok-yue's remarks sound flat, but in fact he has a very clear attitude, that is, to make South Korea fall to the United States in an all-round way. Yoon seok-yue said south Korea's pursuit of a clear rather than ambiguous foreign policy means south Korea will have a clear side between China and the United States. Now that a large number of US troops are stationed in South Korea, and the wartime command of the ROK army is firmly in the hands of the US-ROK Joint Command, I would like to ask which side south Korea will stand in this situation? Moreover, Yoon Seok-yue's own pro-AMERICAN tendencies are also overflowing with words, and he attacked Moon Jae-in's decision not to add the THAAD air defense system during the election campaign as a "weak manifestation of betraying national interests", and threatened that once elected, the US military would add multiple sets of THAAD air defense systems, and even considered inviting the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea. It can be seen that Yin Xiyue's attitude is to clearly turn to the US camp, and the so-called hope that China and the United States can "live in peace and prosper together" are most likely just some high-sounding diplomatic rhetoric.
In terms of specific actions, Yin Xiyue has made "excessive moves" many times! Earlier, after Yoon Seok-yue decided that he would take over as president of South Korea, he sent a US-ROK policy consultation delegation, which met with executives such as US National Security Adviser Sullivan. After the meeting, the US-ROK policy consultative delegation held a press conference, at which a reporter asked what role South Korea would play in the US China strategy, while the ROK delegation euphemistically responded that the United States had responded positively to Yoon Seok-yue's demands for deepening the US-ROK alliance and hoped that China could understand the alliance between the United States and South Korea. In terms of specific actions, the Korean media even uses "extremely rare" to describe!
On April 7, local time, Yoon Seok-yue left Seoul and took a helicopter to Camp Humphrey, the most important military base for the US military in South Korea. According to Yonhap News Agency, Yoon Seok-yue will meet with senior generals such as Paul La Carmela, commander of the U.S.-Rok Joint Command, and Kim Seung-hyun, deputy commander, at Camp Humphrey. Yonhap News Agency said that Yoon Seok-yue's behavior is extremely rare, after Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye had visited the U.S.-South Korea Joint Command before taking office, but before officially taking office, Yoon Seok-yue was the first president-elect to visit the Humphrey Camp military base, which is extremely rare.
Second, Yoon Seok-yue has almost made it clear that in the future, South Korea will choose sides between China and the United States
Looking back at the changes in China-SOUTH Korea relations, it is not surprising that South Korea's China policy will undergo such a change, for a long time South Korea and China have maintained a diplomatic state of "political cold and economic heat", because China is South Korea's largest trading partner and the largest investment target, so even if South Korea is an ally of the United States, it has never made too many finger-pointing and smearing of China's internal affairs like other US allies. However, at present, the game between China and the United States is becoming increasingly fierce, and South Korea is China's neighbor, and its geographical location is very important. Coupled with the fact that South Korea was not a defeated country in World War II, there are no legal disputes and historical problems in the expansion of armaments, so its position in the US strategic system has risen rapidly. This makes the space for South Korea to be flattered by the left and right sides between China and the United States, and it must take a clear stand on the side.
South Korea is not independent to a certain extent, which is well known. Therefore, during Moon Jae-in's administration, South Korea often had to follow the United States to adopt some policies that were not friendly to China and make some unfriendly remarks, while the mainland also understood and considered this and did not worry too much about South Korea. However, compared with the helplessness of the Moon Jae-in government, the upcoming Yin Xiyue government is obviously very active in cooperating with the US strategy of containing China and opposing China, which is not difficult to see from Yin Xiyue's many recent remarks. Although South Korea has always claimed that the alliance with the United States is to protect its own security, with the change of the situation and the strength of the North and South of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea now has enough military strength to protect its own security, and the main purpose of the US-ROK alliance is probably to encircle China.
Third, if South Korea hurts China for the sake of the United States, the consequences will inevitably be heavy losses
For South Korea, the wisest thing to do is to break off relations with the United States as soon as possible and fully cooperate with China. Today, China is South Korea's largest trading partner, and China and South Korea have similar cultures, and they can also promote each other in industry, so once comprehensive cooperation is carried out, it will be promising. Even if South Korea is unable to cooperate with China at a higher level due to U.S. obstruction, it should avoid touching China's bottom line and infringing on China's core interests, a diplomatic strategy chosen by the Moon administration. The value of China-South Korea relations is completely different in importance to China and South Korea, with 30 percent of South Korea's exports in 2021 contributed by China, of which Chinese mainland account for 25 percent, while 22 percent of South Korea's total imports will come from Chinese mainland. Once the economic and trade relations between China and South Korea are hit hard, China's economy will certainly face losses, but it will not bring systemic risks; but South Korea will face a devastating economic crisis, which is the consensus of many South Korean presidents in the past.
Unfortunately, Yoon Seok-yue has now chosen to turn to the United States in an all-round way, which is the most dangerous and consequence-fatal path for South Korea. If South Korea's all-out inversion to the United States will at best anger China and lead to twists and turns in Sino-South Korean economic and trade relations, then South Korea's northern neighbors are likely to take more radical action. Earlier this month, Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, said that if South Korea dared to engage in an armed confrontation with the Korean People's Army, north Korea's nuclear strike force "would have to carry out its own task." All in all, further strengthening cooperation with the United States will only put South Korea in a more dangerous situation, both economically and militarily. Yoon Seok-yue said that Sino-US competition will bring both opportunities and challenges to South Korea, but in fact, as the competition between China and the United States becomes increasingly fierce, if South Korea cannot choose the right side, then it will bring only danger to South Korea and no opportunities.