[Introduction: In the field of real estate, there is a real estate "night pot" theory that everyone is very familiar with, and the elegant translation is: real estate is often used as a "fire captain", and at the critical moment, please come out to extinguish the "fire" that may be out of control in the macroeconomic field. In the automotive field, there is also a tried-and-true "car to the countryside", which will always be used when car sales are down. 】
Written| by Zhang Dachuan and editor | Kangqiao
In the face of repeated epidemics in various places, the domestic automotive industry has pressed the pause button. At present, car companies are not only facing pressure from the supply chain to the production end, but even if they can promote the smooth production of models in the later stage, they will also face the challenge of whether automobile consumption can return to the right track under the downward pressure of the economy. In this case, the introduction of large-scale automobile consumption policies by the state has become the consensus of all parties.
In the face of the demand of automobile enterprises hoping to open the "car to the countryside", Luo Junjie, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference of the State New Office held on April 19 that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will study and clarify the support policies such as the continuation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax concessions as soon as possible, continue to carry out the pilot of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and replacing the power supply mode, and strengthen the guarantee for the stable operation of the industrial chain supply chain. This undoubtedly shows to the outside world that not only will the subsidies for new energy vehicles be continued with a high probability, but also incentive measures will be carried out for the two specific areas of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and replacing electricity.
Can subsidies for new energy vehicles still have an immediate effect?
It is undeniable that the past new energy vehicle subsidies have played a relatively large role in the promotion of new energy vehicles in the early stage, and the total number of subsidized vehicles has reached 10.33 million, helping China to become one of the world's most important new energy vehicle markets.
However, compared with subsidies, consumers who buy new energy vehicles are more concerned about the advantages of new energy vehicles in terms of license plates and road rights in cities with limited purchases. Taking Shanghai as an example, the Shanghai brand of 89,000 yuan at every turn, as well as the low winning rate, make many consumers think more about new energy vehicles when buying the second car of the family. Therefore, simply continuing the subsidy for new energy vehicles will not play a big role in stimulating the consumption of new energy vehicles. In particular, the subsidies in 2022 have already declined significantly compared with the original.
In order to truly stimulate automobile consumption, it is still necessary to release more fuel vehicle purchase indicators in Typical Limited License Cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou to stimulate more fuel vehicle sales potential. As for new energy vehicles, as long as the advantages of licenses and road rights are not cancelled, the consumption of new energy vehicles in first- and second-tier cities will not disappear. Therefore, instead of spending a lot of effort to subsidize the purchase of new energy vehicles in major cities, it is better to open more car purchase quotas for fuel vehicles and hybrid models with higher fuel economy. On the one hand, it is in line with the energy saving and emission reduction policy, on the other hand, it can also encourage car companies to reduce the fuel consumption of their related models.
Is it feasible for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside?
"Cars going to the countryside" began in 2009. At that time, the global financial crisis led to deflation and sluggish consumption worldwide, and in order to encourage automobile consumption, the state sacrificed the policy of "cars going to the countryside".
From the specific content, at that time, in addition to levying a vehicle purchase tax of 5% on passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below, the state also gave subsidies for scrapped three-wheeled vehicles and low-speed trucks for light trucks. The first "car to the countryside" policy achieved very good results, injecting a shot of strength into the Chinese automotive industry, which was entering a trough at that time. Later, whenever the economy is in a downturn or car consumption is sluggish, the state will sacrifice this killer to stimulate car consumption. In the past 10 years, the mainland has implemented the "car to the countryside" three times.
However, in the field of new energy vehicles, compared with the current low ownership of first- and second-tier cities, the coverage rate of new energy vehicles in the vast rural areas is actually not high. Therefore, to promote new energy vehicles to go to the countryside, it is more important to make a big fuss from the point that at the moment of high oil prices, new energy vehicles have more advantages over fuel vehicles in terms of daily use costs. In addition, in the replacement of models, the state can also give more subsidies for the purchase of new energy models. Secondly, in the vast rural areas, the layout of charging stations is also a big problem. If the charging station layout density is low, it will bring inconvenience to the charging process of the car; but if the density is high, it may be difficult for the charging station to achieve profitability due to the low ownership. Therefore, how to find a balance is not a small problem.
Therefore, new energy vehicles going to the countryside should not be engaged in a vigorous movement, nor can they be subsidized at any cost, especially not blindly promoting pure electric vehicles in the vast rural areas. According to local conditions, to promote some range extenders, plug-in hybrids and even hybrid models with better fuel consumption performance, the effect of energy saving and emission reduction is more obvious, and it can also promote consumers to upgrade their own models.
Can the power exchange mode usher in spring?
In the form of electric vehicle replenishment, power exchange and overcharge have always had their own fans. Tesla, GAC Eian, Xiaopeng as the representative of the firm supercharging faction, while Weilai, Geely and Ningde era, have bet on the power exchange model. From the perspective of policymakers, they have already cast the most solid vote for the exchange of electricity.
Compared with overcharge, the biggest advantage of the power exchange mode is that it will not pose a relatively large challenge to the grid load, but the power station also has its own great drawbacks. According to the relevant data, the cost of building a substation in China is 772,000 US dollars, which also includes the cost of battery and site leasing, while the cost of building a battery charging station is 309,000 US dollars. In this case, the recovery cycle of a substation is usually more than 10 years. At present, the versatility of power exchange is not strong, that is, it is difficult to change electricity across brands, so it is difficult to form a scale effect of power station replacement. From Weilai's point of view, the biggest advantage of power exchange is that it can be separated from vehicle electricity, that is, the battery that accounts for 1/3 of the cost of the whole vehicle is completely handed over to the manufacturer to consider, and it can also greatly reduce the cost of the initial car purchase. However, among the owners of Weilai, the number of people who really use the power exchange at a high frequency is not much, so Weilai still uses the power exchange as one of its own services to paste money.
Therefore, in the next step, whether it is to give enough financial support to relevant enterprises from the subsidy level to allow car companies to accelerate the layout of the power exchange network, or to take the lead by government departments to promote a unified domestic power exchange interface and develop a unified standard to facilitate each car company to share each other's charging network, there is a lot of work that needs to be done. However, from the perspective of promoting the charging network, the first problem to be solved is to improve the profitability of the replacement power station itself. Only by further improving the profitability of the replacement power station can we encourage more capital to enter this market. In turn, a virtuous circle is formed, through a wider layout of outlets, to attract consumers to buy cars with the function of changing electricity.
Comments
There is nothing wrong with the direction that the state hopes to encourage the consumption of new energy vehicles, but how to stimulate consumers, especially the consumption power of huge rural consumers to buy new energy vehicles, this is not easy to solve. If the policy is not accurate, it will be difficult to achieve the expected results. After all, no one can change the fact that the same policy will have diminishing marginal utility. In the face of valuable national resources, we must be very cautious when introducing relevant subsidy policies, play a role in four or two thousand pounds, and take advantage of the subsidy opportunities implemented this time to further expand and strengthen China's new energy automobile industry.
(This article is the original of "Heyan Reading Car", without authorization, it may not be reproduced)