The price of new energy vehicles is getting worse and worse, and the epidemic has triggered the "butterfly effect" of the industrial chain

Securities Daily reporter Chen Hong

In April, due to the rise in raw material prices and the impact of the new crown epidemic, five companies, Weilai, Tesla, Jihu Automobile, Chery New Energy and JiKr Automobile, have successively raised the prices of their new energy vehicles, with increases ranging from a few thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan, and the phenomenon of general industry growth has intensified.

"The general increase in the price of new energy vehicles will not decrease in the short term." Hu Qimu, chief researcher of the China Steel Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter: "From the supply side, mainly affected by the epidemic and geopolitical situation on the upstream raw materials of the new energy industry chain; from the demand side, consumer demand has not shrunk. Whether it is the cumulative number in the first quarter or the number in a single month in March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has shown a sharp upward trend. ”

How should consumers choose under the general rise?

In the near future, on April 7, Tesla officially announced that the price of some Model3 models will be raised by at least $1,000; on April 6, Jihu Automobile announced that it will make certain price adjustments for all models of the Jihu brand from May 1, 2022; on the same day, Chery New Energy announced that it would raise the price of some models by 2,900 yuan to 5,000 yuan on April 7; on April 2, Extreme Krypton Automobile announced a price increase plan on April 30, which took effect on May 1.

In fact, the above-mentioned car companies are already new energy car companies with relatively late price increases.

Since March this year, nearly 20 car companies, including BYD, Xiaopeng, Great Wall Euler, SAIC-GM-Wuling and other car companies, have officially announced price increases. The highest increase was more than 30,000 yuan, involving nearly 40 models.

The price adjustment does not seem to have affected the sales of new energy vehicles. According to data released by the official micro of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles on April 11, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 455,000 units in March, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year and 43.6% month-on-month. From January to March, the wholesale number of new energy passenger cars was 1.190 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year. In March, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 445,000 units, up 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month.

Among them, in March, xiaopeng, ideal, Nezha, zero run, Weima and other new forces car companies sales performance was generally better year-on-year and month-on-month, especially Xiaopeng, ideal, Nezha growth rate is higher, the cumulative sales in the first quarter exceeded 30,000 vehicles.

"Why is the price increase in sales not decreasing but increasing? Mainly because the new energy automobile industry is in the growth stage, the current increase in market demand is very strong, from the sales data, the price increase has not suppressed the market demand. Hu Qimu said: "Like Tesla, which belongs to the high-end models of new energy, the brand value is higher, and the pricing voice in the industrial chain is also larger." The corresponding target customer group has low price sensitivity and elasticity. ”

"The price increase will not affect the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market, but the production capacity will be affected." Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University International Union Business School, told the Securities Daily reporter that for price increases, the use of new energy vehicles is more cost-effective than fuel vehicles, a car with less than 100 pieces of electricity filled with 100 degrees, and the cost of filling up oil is several times more, so consumers will still choose trams; but the production capacity is hard, there is no sales without production capacity, so the supply chain problems caused by the epidemic may restrict terminal sales.

It is not difficult to find from the announcement date and price increase date of each car company that most companies choose to "open up" immediately on the day of release or several days, and do not leave enough time for consumers to consider comprehensively. In the face of the general increase in the price of new energy vehicles, can consumers still "get on the car"?

Song Qinghui, a well-known economist, told the Securities Daily reporter: "It is expected that the price increase of new energy vehicles will continue. If the upstream supply chain is tight for a long time, there may be a second wave of price increases for new energy vehicles. For the just-needed family, as long as the price reaches the psychologically acceptable expectations, it can be considered to start in time. ”

Pan and Lin believe: "The price of new energy vehicles is a rolling cycle upwards, the general trend is that the price will rise, if the short-term increase is too large, it will definitely fall." Consumers can wait, but new energy vehicles, as a consumer product, can reflect the cost performance after purchase, and consumers can earn the price of the car from the use of advance purchase. Therefore, if it is a user who just needs it, 'buy early and enjoy early, and buy late has a discount'. ”

"From the perspective of macro policies, new energy vehicles have crossed the breakeven and have the ability to complete sustained profitability through market mechanisms, and the state's subsidies for new energy in the future may gradually withdraw." Therefore, consumers with demand for new energy vehicles should consider the quality of the car more than pay attention to the fluctuation of its price. Hu Qimu said.

The epidemic triggers the "butterfly effect" of the industrial chain

The price increase of new energy vehicles is also "a cause".

Since March, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the automobile supply chain in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jilin and other places has been suspended, and at the same time, due to the inability to transport products controlled by the epidemic out of the factory, many car companies have been forced to press the "pause button" for vehicle production.

For the above reasons, on April 1, SAIC Volkswagen announced that the Shanghai plant would stop production; on March 14, FAW-Volkswagen's Changchun plant would stop production; following the two-day suspension on March 16 and 17, on March 28, Tesla once again announced the suspension of production at the Shanghai Gigafactory, which had been suspended for 17 days as of April 11.

In addition, the Securities Daily reporter learned that due to the impact of the epidemic, Tesla's delivery cycle has been extended by about 4 weeks, and brands such as Buick, Chevrolet, Weilai, Roewe, SAIC Volkswagen, and Cadillac will also have different degrees of extension of the delivery cycle.

"It is not difficult to see from the suspension of production of many car companies that the 'butterfly effect' of the new energy automobile industry has emerged." In the early days, the shortage of chips, and later the large-scale price increase of lithium carbonate led to insufficient supply of power batteries, and the current market supply chain was seriously tight. Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told the Securities Daily reporter: "Under the epidemic, almost all car companies are facing pressure from the supply chain level. Like february this year, Great Wall Motor's production and sales have declined significantly, and the core reason is the insufficient supply of body electronic stability systems produced by bosch, the exclusive supplier. ”

"The new energy vehicle industry chain is long, the supply chain is interlocking, including upstream parts, components, batteries, chips, etc., affected by the epidemic, the lack of supply in all aspects of the constraints, in the current strong market demand cycle of new energy vehicles, the future will further increase the price of new energy vehicles." Hu Qimu also said.

In fact, the epidemic has repeatedly affected the consumer and production ends of automobiles. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "At present, the direct loss and impact of the epidemic on national automobile production accounts for about 20% of the total output, and the future is still facing great uncertainty. ”

According to the production data of the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai and Jilin Province each account for about 11% of the national production, and the production of some enterprises in Shanghai is running at full capacity, so the production and sales of passenger cars in the core areas will be greatly affected in April." Due to the long automotive industry chain, high coordination requirements, and a wider range of production and radiation from the core production and logistics bases, the production and marketing pressure in the automobile market in April may be very large. ”

(Edited by Qiao Chuanchuan)