On May 16, Putin's special plane arrived in Beijing. Although friendly interaction between China and Russia has become the norm, Putin's visit is still very unusual this time. This unusualness is reflected in three aspects.
First, the use of China as a first-time country is not common in Russia's diplomatic tradition. For a long time, the first destinations of Russian leaders have been arranged in Central Asia or the Caucasus, which are "transition zones" with Europe, and most of them are CIS countries.
Because of this tradition, when the Kremlin first briefed earlier this year that it was going to visit Beijing for the first time, many people didn't take it too seriously. As a result, I did not expect that Russia was really completely determined to embrace the East this time, and determined that China was the "first choice" for Russia's foreign exchanges at present, and Putin showed a lot of sincerity this time.
Putin
Second, the standard of the delegation on this visit is very high, and it is not an exaggeration to say that it is a "family-friendly" visit to China. In addition to Prime Minister Mishustin and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, including Shoigu, who was transferred to the post of secretary of the Security Council, all the senior officials of Putin's new cabinet came to China with him.
Finally, Russia's visit to China did not have the negative impact on Sino-European relations as the United States expected. Although the British media desperately tried to discredit the visit, Europe did not dance with it. After Putin's official visit to China, Germany is still on the front line of opposing the EU's tariffs on Chinese trams as usual.
Switzerland is also insisting on handing over olive branches, inviting China as a heavyweight guest to participate in the upcoming "peace summit" on Ukraine-related issues in June. China has succeeded in holding this bowl of water between Russia and Europe, and has completely bankrupted the United States' plan to engage in a "new Cold War." As far as the United States is concerned, Putin's visit has sent a rather bad signal, that is, the cards in the hands of the White House that threaten China have failed.
Biden
In the first half of this year, the United States has been doing one thing, that is, to drive a wedge between China and Russia and interrupt Russia's momentum of fighting more and more smoothly on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. One of the means adopted by Biden is to discredit the normal trade between China and Russia, define the purely civilian goods exported by China to Russia as the so-called "dual-use goods", and even say the nonsense that the Russian army will dismantle the breast pump to obtain chips.
Not only that, shortly after the news of Putin's upcoming visit to China was released by the Kremlin Palace, the United States even threatened that if trade between China and Russia continued, then the United States would promote secondary sanctions on major Chinese banks and use the "financial nuclear bomb" that had been used on Russia on China as well. But Putin's visit to China quickly punctured their newly inflated confidence.
On the eve of Putin's departure, the British media pointed out that China and Russia have exercised amazing adaptability in the face of the "stick of sanctions" of the United States. Within a month or two of the U.S. threat, more than 4,500 local subprime banks in China began to develop "correspondent business," and the U.S. simply failed to impose sanctions.
Sino-Russian trade
And if the United States does not believe in evil and continues to play the game of "whack-a-mole" with China, then the result will only be to squander its financial credit and help China "train its troops." Britain also pointed out that judging from the results, the high-profile threat of the United States to China's financial system is a complete trick, because under the high-intensity public opinion offensive of the United States, the whole world knows that the United States wants to "cut the knife" on Sino-Russian trade.
However, in such a short period of time, China has found another way to circumvent the US blockade, which is equivalent to setting an example for the world, encouraging more countries to follow suit and prepare in advance to deal with the US dollar's weaponization strategy. Judging from the people brought by Putin's visit to China, Britain's assessment is still very correct.
This time, Putin's entourage included almost all the heavyweights of the Russian government's internal financial system. According to the joint statement issued by China and Russia on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era, the two sides should expand the scale of trade, optimize the trade structure, increase the share of local currencies in bilateral economic activities, improve the financial infrastructure of the two countries, and smooth the settlement channels of business entities between the two countries.
It is imperative for China and Russia to establish a rich and flexible trade settlement network that bypasses the US dollar and is also more resilient to risks. For the United States, what is even more fatal is that the deepening of financial cooperation between China and Russia is only the beginning. In the second half of this year, Russia will host the BRICS summit in Kazan.
Since the beginning of this year, Russia's rotating presidency has been talking about the establishment of an independent settlement system within the BRICS. If this round of practice between China and Russia is successful, it is only a matter of time before it is further piloted in the BRICS. What's more, the timing of China and Russia is also very accurate.
Also recently, the US Department of Labor released the CPI data for April. And the CPI in April did not rise more than expected in previous months, but in line with expectations. This means that the Fed is likely to be unable to withstand the political pressure of the Biden administration and has begun to prepare to end the interest rate hike cycle, and even does not rule out starting to cut interest rates in the second half of the year.
And during the election sprint, Biden needs the Federal Reserve to print money to give benefits to voters and buy votes. Almost all election years in the history of the United States are water release years, and there was even a "famous scene" in which President Johnson, who was seeking re-election at that time, pressed the other party against the wall in order to force the chairman of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and release water.
Although Biden is now unable to "knock" Powell, in the face of Trump's "fierce rival" and the precarious election situation, the Democratic Party will put more pressure on the Fed. And if the Fed really releases water, then the depreciation of the dollar in the second half of this year is almost an inevitable trend.
If at this time, China and Russia lead the BRICS to throw out an independent settlement system and promote the "bombshell" of de-dollarization, the scale of the dollar flowing in the market may usher in a rare round of "big expansion", stepping on the accelerator for the depreciation of the dollar. If things really develop in this direction, then the "financial nuclear bomb" that the United States talks about and uses from time to time to threaten other countries will really explode in its own home.
Of course, this round of cooperative finance between China and Russia is the focus, and nothing else will be left behind. For example, soon after the high-level talks between China and Russia, it was reported that the two countries would further deepen military mutual trust and cooperation, expand the scale of joint exercises and training, and regularly organize joint patrols at sea and in the air.
Moreover, the two sides resolutely oppose any attempt to obstruct the normal development of bilateral relations and restrict the economic, technological and international space of the two countries, and will strengthen coordination and cooperation to deal with the so-called "double containment" policy of the United States towards China, Russia and Africa.
However, the sniping of the dollar is likely to be the fastest to see results in this round of Sino-Russian cooperation. According to the latest data, China reduced its holdings of U.S. bonds for three consecutive months, and sold another $7.6 billion in March. In six months at least and at most a year, the United States will have to pay the price for its indiscriminate wielding of the "financial stick." The whole world can't wait to see this good show.
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