The unit price of double integrals fell below 1,000 yuan from 3,000-4,000 yuan last year, and the value of points that plummeted in just one year is an inevitable trend in my opinion.
The development of history shows that the value of anything fluctuates with demand, and its value does not depend on itself, but on whether there is a pricer.
2020 is the steepest year of double credits, the imbalance between supply and demand of double points status quo so that the unit price once soared to 4,000 yuan, in the fuel vehicle enterprise transformation has not yet settled the dust, can get double points of the enterprise is not many, a large number of enterprises still need double points to ensure the normal operation of enterprises.
Once the supply and demand of double integrals are balanced, mainstream enterprises can also ensure their own double integral acquisition status and improve their own double integral dilemma, then the state of the entire market is extremely good.
According to estimates, in the case of the total passenger car market remaining unchanged, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will reach the order of 5 million, which will be about double the growth rate compared with 2021.
In the past, the companies with the greatest shortage of new energy credits were Great Wall, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, and Dongfeng Nissan, and the large sales users pushed the double credit heat to the highest because of the shortage problem.
Last year, the Great Wall's Euler brand achieved good results, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen also launched their own ID series electric vehicles, while SAIC-GM also alleviated the embarrassment because of the electrification of SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Dongfeng Nissan's e-Power also began to gradually exert force.
The enterprises that need double credits the most no longer need to purchase too many double credits, so the circulation attribute of goods becomes weaker.
According to industry insiders, the current unit price of double integrals is about 500-800 yuan, compared with thousands of yuan in the highest period in 2020, a drop of up to 80%.
For a long time in the past, in order to solve the problem of double integration, many companies have created many models with low value and low endurance, but can obtain more double points.
The standard used to be that a pure electric vehicle of 100km could get two points, and a pure electric vehicle with a range of 400km could get 6.8 points. The adjusted strategy is that electric vehicles over 100km can only get one point, and pure electric vehicles over 400km can get 2.64 points.
The policy requirements for double credits are becoming more and more stringent, the number of double points obtained by a car is reduced, and enterprises in need must produce more new energy vehicles, forcing enterprises to transform into new energy.
What we can see is that the Hongguang MINI EV is a very targeted new energy model, with a range of less than 200km, meeting the new standard of a car 1.52 double points acquisition ability, although compared with the same period last year decline is obvious, but for SAIC, the strategic significance of the Hongguang MINI EV is still very obvious.
The purpose of the introduction of double integrals is to make fuel vehicle companies have pressure and vigorously transform the new energy industry, and the collapse of the price of double integrals can see the transformation results of most enterprises, and my view is that double integrals have no value, no liquidity, and all enterprises are not in the purchase of double integrals, the industry transformation is really completed.
Therefore, at present, the price of 500-800 double integrals still has room to fall, after all, for some enterprises, the demand for double integrals is often hundreds of thousands, and it is still a purchase cost of over 100 million.
However, from the perspective of the transformation speed of the mainstream industry, with the transformation of traditional fuel vehicles and the emergence of a new market dominated by hybrid and pure electric vehicles, the importance of double integration is not as strategic as it was in the past.