How to crack the "rising sound" of new energy vehicles?

On the evening of April 5, the Internet rumored that "BYD will have a new round of price increases", and Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's automobile brand and public relations business department, said on Weibo that this was false news. However, since the beginning of this year, BYD has carried out two rounds of price adjustments, and the highest price of its new energy models has been raised by 13,000 yuan.

Since the beginning of 2022, new energy vehicles can be said to be "rising". According to incomplete statistics, nearly 20 car companies have announced price increases this year, involving more than 40 models. Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Ideal, Zero Run and many other new energy vehicle brands have raised the price of products, and the highest increase has exceeded 30,000 yuan.

Industry insiders generally believe that the soaring price of raw materials for power batteries is the main reason for the multi-round price increase of new energy vehicle companies, but experts believe that the soaring price of raw materials is only a symptom, and the deep-seated reason is that there are problems in the supply chain.

Liu Yu, executive director of the Silver Lake New Energy Strategic Research Center of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, told Nandu reporters that with the continuous maturity of lithium extraction technology in the mainland salt lake, mineral production has gradually recovered, and in the future, the raw materials of power batteries can be guaranteed. Therefore, ensuring the safety and stability of the supply chain is the first problem.

Phenomenon: Some car companies rose up to 30,000

Industry: Weilai calls for upstream "do not artificially create price increases"

In fact, this round of price increases is the second wave this year. The reporter combed and found that the first wave of new energy vehicle price increases was concentrated in January to early February this year, with price increases of 2,000-5,000 yuan, and the relative increase was relatively small. However, in March, the price increase of new energy vehicles once again "came and went", compared with the first round of increases, of which Tesla and Xiaopeng rose by about 30,000 yuan. The reason is that new energy vehicle companies have mentioned in the announcement that they are "affected by the rise in upstream raw material prices".

In this regard, Wei Fulei, deputy director of the Silver Lake New Energy Strategic Research Center of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said that the continuous rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries is the main reason for the increase in the price of new energy vehicles, and the rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of power batteries, and the cost is eventually transmitted to downstream OEMs, which is manifested in multiple rounds of increases in the price of new energy vehicles.

It is worth mentioning that in the rise in the price of new energy vehicles, Weilai, as a new force in car manufacturing, said that it would not increase prices, and traditional luxury car companies such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz have not yet raised the prices of their new energy vehicle products. It can be seen that a considerable number of car companies are cautious in this round of price increases.

On March 25, Li Bin, founder and chairman of WEILAI, said at the financial report that at present, WEILAI has no idea of raising the price of products, and will see whether the pricing policy will be adjusted according to the market situation.

In response to the recent soaring price of lithium carbonate, Li Bin said: "We have done in-depth research on the upstream links, and believe that there are more speculative factors in the current price increase of lithium carbonate, and there is not so much gap between supply and demand. We call on upstream lithium ore, lithium salt and other manufacturers to start from long-term interests and not artificially create price increases, which is not a good thing for the industry. ”

Compared with the new forces of car manufacturing, traditional car companies have stronger strength and are more resistant to the risks brought about by market changes. Wen Zeyue, president of Audi China, has said that Audi will use the synergy effect of volkswagen group to unify battery production, hoping to further reduce prices and alleviate the pressure brought by costs through scale effects.

Phenomenon: Changes in supply and demand lead to increased prices of raw materials

Analysis: Through technological upgrading and cost control, price decline is a major trend

According to the statistics of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (referred to as "SMM"), on March 31, the spot quotation of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 499,000 yuan to 506,000 yuan / ton. Since 2022, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen by 220,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 80%. In addition, the price of raw materials such as cobalt and nickel has also risen sharply.

Wei Fulei said that the change in the supply and demand relationship in the new energy vehicle market in the past two years is the main reason for the rise in the price of battery raw materials. He believes that the rapid growth of terminal demand will greatly drive the growth of upstream raw material demand, but the dependence of lithium battery raw materials on the mainland is high and the self-sufficiency rate of resources is low. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, foreign mineral production has been suppressed in the past two years.

Wei Fulei also pointed out that coupled with the rising cost of international shipping in the past two years, as well as the over-issuance of the US currency led to the continuous rise in global commodity prices, the superposition of multiple factors eventually led to the continuous rise in the price of raw materials for this round of power batteries, prompting new energy vehicle companies to adjust the price of products in multiple rounds.

The new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly, and the output has rapidly doubled in recent years, and the demand for upstream batteries has also increased significantly. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the whole year of 2021, the cumulative loading volume of power batteries in mainland China will be 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 227.4% year-on-year.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the output of lithium carbonate in the mainland in 2021 was 240,000 tons, an increase of 40.4% year-on-year. In terms of output growth, the growth rate of lithium carbonate production of raw materials required for lithium iron phosphate is far behind the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate battery loading, which to a certain extent reflects the overall shortage of supply in the market.

In addition, some insiders pointed out that the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles is also another inducement for car companies to raise prices. The "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" clearly pointed out that in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% compared with 2021. The sales staff of Xiaopeng Automobile's 4S store in Shenzhen also told Nandu reporters that due to the continuous decline in state subsidies and the rise in raw material prices, "product prices are still not stable."

Liu Yu, executive director of the Silver Lake New Energy Strategic Research Center of The China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, told Nandu reporters that the price increase of new energy vehicles is a normal market behavior. From a macro point of view, the price of new energy vehicles continues to rise and fall, indicating that the industry is running benignly, and the industry will continue to develop in the process of rising and falling. In the long run, as the scale of the new energy vehicle market continues to expand, technology continues to upgrade and cost control continues to decline, and the price of new energy vehicles is still a major trend.

For the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, at the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum on March 25, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the current sharp price increase in power battery raw materials needs to be highly concerned, and will be seriously studied and solved, moderately accelerate the progress of domestic resource development, resolutely crack down on unfair competition behaviors such as hoarding and speculation, guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen collaboration, win-win development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.

Expert support

The first thing to ensure the security and stability of the supply chain is also to innovate the sales model

Oil prices continue to rise, the price of new energy vehicles has also risen many times, for consumers, whether to continue to buy new energy electric vehicles has become a problem that requires many considerations. In this regard, Nandu reporter consulted the Xiaopeng Automobile 4S store in Shenzhen, and the sales staff told reporters that because new energy vehicles provide free charging services and other additional rights, the cost of new energy vehicles is still lower than that of fuel vehicles, and since March, the total delivery of stores is still rising.

On April 1, Xiaopeng Motors issued an announcement that Xiaopeng Motors delivered a total of 15,414 units in March, an increase of 147.61% month-on-month and 202.12% year-on-year.

Wei Fulei believes that as a consumer, choosing to buy an electric vehicle or a fuel vehicle, there will be its own comprehensive trade-off, the price factor is only a slight aspect, but also includes the actual purchase price, the cost of use, the use experience and other factors. He said that for consumers, the increase is within a limited range and is acceptable, but if the price rises sharply for a long time, it will definitely affect the willingness of consumers to buy cars, which in turn will have a certain impact on the development of the new energy vehicle market.

Therefore, in the context of the continuous deepening of the "double carbon" policy and the large-scale popularization of new energy vehicles, how to apply corresponding measures to ensure the stability of new energy vehicle prices and help the healthy development of the industry has become the primary issue at present when policy subsidies continue to decline.

Liu Yu believes that with the continuous maturity of lithium extraction technology in the mainland salt lake, mineral production has gradually recovered, and in the future, the raw materials for power batteries can be guaranteed. Therefore, ensuring the safety and stability of the supply chain is the first problem.

In addition, he said that in the face of market fluctuations, companies should innovate in sales models in addition to raising prices. Through the form of electricity exchange and other forms, the sales model of "one hammer trading" will be transformed into a continuous service model, reducing the cost of use of consumers and avoiding the decline in consumers' willingness to buy cars due to temporary price increases. At the same time, costs can be shared using lease or sharing.

Wei Fulei believes that the government level should do a good job of macro-control, as far as possible to ensure the supply of domestic supply chains, do a good job of controlling upstream raw material resources, and keep prices within a reasonable range. In the future, as the impact of the epidemic gradually fades, the price of shipping will decrease, and the trend of rising power battery prices will be curbed.

In addition, Liu Yu also pointed out that at present, the scale of the recycling industry in the mainland is not large, the amount of recycling is not high, the business model is not mature, and the policy system is not perfect. Power battery recycling involves a series of factors such as production, environmental safety, and recycling costs, among which the high cost of recycling is one of the important problems hindering the development of the power battery recycling industry. He believes that it is necessary to use the power of the market to promote the gradual maturity of the industry, and the government also needs to issue guidance opinions that are conducive to the development of the industry and improve the relevant systems.

In Wei Foley's view, the price of non-renewable resources such as lithium is still constrained by supply and demand, and enterprises should accelerate the development of new technical routes and not rely too much on lithium or a single type of resource for a long time.

Written by: Nandu reporter Cheng Yang intern Bai Hongguo