Introduction: In 2021, China's new energy automobile industry has achieved good results. But we should not only be satisfied with playing the "good half-time ball", if we want to truly achieve the overtaking of the Chinese automotive industry, we must bravely face the many problems in the industry.
In the context of the "double carbon" goal, 2021 is the year when China's new energy automobile industry "slammed the throttle". According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers), in 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales will be 3.521 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles will rise rapidly from 5.8% in 2020 to 14.8%.
However, the rapid development has also brought many problems worthy of attention. From March 25 to 27, 2022, the China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Conference was held as scheduled. As a national third-party think tank in the field of electric vehicles, the 100 People's Association conducted research and discussion on many hot topics in the field of new energy vehicles in China with the theme of "Welcoming a New Stage of Market-oriented Development of New Energy Vehicles".
What is particularly noteworthy is that unlike the previous praises and praise performance, this "Hundred People's Meeting" began to calmly look at the problems existing and caused by the rapid development of new energy vehicles. Therefore, it is advisable to let new energy vehicles lightly "point" a few feet of brakes, and re-examine where China's new energy vehicles should go in the new stage.
1) After the "mining disaster", beware of the power battery production capacity process
Today, the soaring price of the main raw materials of new energy is the result of multiple factors.
In 2022, the price of new energy vehicles under various new energy vehicle companies has increased one after another, exposing the entire industry to run wildly, resulting in a rather embarrassing situation now.
Of course, there are many negative effects brought about by accidental events, but is the new energy automobile industry really ready for the arrival of a "new era"?
In the second half of 2021, the "lithium" war between the Ningde era and Ganfeng Lithium Industry gave people a glimpse of the chaotic side of the overseas layout of mainland power battery raw materials, but this is not the most serious problem.
In the face of the frequent downstream attacks of mineral resources, Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aean, called for at the "Hundred People's Meeting" to "hope that the competent authorities can introduce relevant policies to regulate the control of the price of raw material resources upstream of electric vehicles and prevent upstream resources from being excessively monopolized." But the problem is that China has no monopoly on important raw materials such as lithium and cobalt. Taking lithium ore as an example, China accounts for only 7% of the world's proven lithium ore.
Monopoly has always been regarded by Western economics as the "great enemy" affecting market efficiency. In addition to raw materials being started by foreign countries, card necks, China's electric vehicle supply chain, there is no lack of "monopoly merchants" figure.
Among the domestic power battery suppliers, NINGDE times can be described as a dominant one. In 2021, the global installed capacity of CATL reached 96.7GWh, with a market share of 32.6%, and almost one-third of the world's installed capacity, ranking first in the world.
This may not be a good phenomenon for new energy vehicle companies and even the entire new energy automobile industry.
In China, Xiaopeng Automobile has been delayed in delivering the battery pack because of the Delay in the Ningde Era, which has led to the delay in delivery, and has finally been complained by many consumers. What is noticeable is that the power battery supplier of Xiaopeng Automobile has also jumped out of the basket of the Ningde era.
The price of raw materials for power batteries remains high, and it may be an unchangeable fact for a long time to come. But as Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said, "Hoarding and making ill-gotten gains must be cracked down, but no one can stop the trend of rising international bulk raw material prices. ”
In the face of the rising factory price of power batteries, automakers are even more bitter and have begun to invest in upstream supply chains. On February 25, 2022, 19 companies increased their capital by 2.43 billion yuan to Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery Co., Ltd. in exchange for the new registered capital of Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery of 1.237 billion yuan. Among these 19 enterprises, there are not only the head car companies "Wei Xiaoli", which are the head of the new car-making forces, but also the old state-owned enterprises such as SAIC, GAC and Dongfeng.
Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, made it clear at the forum that the current problem of sharp price increases in raw materials for power batteries requires great attention, serious study and solution, will moderately accelerate the progress of domestic resource development, resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding, speculation and speculation, guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen collaboration, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.
However, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that as the global electric vehicle enters a stage of rapid development, the battery industry has also ushered in rapid development, but may be overcapacity. He said that the current rapid expansion of production capacity, based on industrial investment information forecast, China's battery production capacity in 2023 may reach 1.5 billion kWh (1500GWh), 2025 may reach 3 billion kWh, 2025 battery shipments are expected to reach 1200GWh, of which 70% to 80% will be used in the domestic market, the remaining export overseas market, it is estimated that there will be battery overcapacity in 2025.
In the view of the automotive K line, if the number given by Ouyang Minggao will not be too different, then the new energy vehicle industry chain may also have a big reshuffle, and the relevant listed companies should control the risk in advance, rather than rushing up, the last chicken feathers, and making quick money.
2) "Core disease" is difficult to treat?
The chip industry should also attract attention. At present, the shortage of semiconductor supply has become a global problem. Not only domestic car companies, but also well-known foreign car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and BMW are also restricted by chips. Due to the suspension of production, it has become a common phenomenon in the industry.
When will chip supply and demand be balanced? Infineon Ploss believes that this "missing core" crisis will continue until 2022, while Intel CEO Patch Gelsinger is more pessimistic, believing that the chip supply and demand balance may not be achieved until 2023.
In China, due to the rapid growth of electric vehicle sales, the shortage of in-vehicle chips is more serious.
Although China's new energy vehicle sales have ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years, the self-sufficiency rate of automotive chips is less than 10%, and the localization rate is less than 5%. According to industry insiders, domestic companies are doing some edge chips, and the core chips still rely on imports.
Although the sales volume is high, it has not mastered the core technology of "intelligence". This means that China's new energy automobile industry is easily stuck in the neck.
In October last year, Xiaopeng P5 had to take the "strange" operation of "delivering the car first and then reloading the radar" because of the shortage of lidar chips.
Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, gave a more straightforward description of the current situation of China's new energy automobile industry being "big but not strong" at the meeting of 100 people.
He said, "Vehicle-level chips and operating systems are our shortcomings, 'lack of core and less soul', especially so for vehicle-level (chips), in the past, car factories basically did not care about this matter, they were handed over to first-level suppliers to do this thing." Now I see that there is no one there who really takes action (to solve the problem of missing cores). At present, there are already foreign automobile factories to invest in TSMC to produce capacity. ”
Why do Chinese car companies prefer to reduce production and stop production rather than "do it themselves"?
This is mainly because of the large investment in chip research and development, especially the research and development of on-board core chips, long cycle and high risk.
Li Dongsheng, the head of TCL, has bluntly pointed out that it will take at least 5 years for China to make chips. Not to mention the short-term and medium-term independent solution to the chip problem. The so-called chip research and development companies, such as Horizon, are also design-oriented.
However, for car companies that dare to gnaw hard bones, the market still gives rich returns.
Tesla, born in Silicon Valley, can develop its own chips, and BYD is one of the few car companies in China that can produce MCUs (micro-control units), but it is far from being comparable to the technology of top international manufacturers.
Ironically, however, the latest news shows that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has suspended the IPO review of BYD's semiconductor ChiNext board.
Last year, Tesla sold 936,000 vehicles worldwide, accounting for about 20% of the total sales of more than 4.5 million pure electric vehicles in the world, and is also the world's top pure electric vehicle sales. In contrast, BYD's cumulative sales of passenger cars were 740,000 units, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year, of which 320,000 pure electric vehicles were sold, ranking fourth in the global pure electric vehicle sales list.
It seems that China's new energy vehicle market is huge, but there is no car company that can enter the world's TOP 3.
3) Are subsidies for new energy vehicles still compensated? , a boot that has not yet landed on the ground
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022. It is clearly stated that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022. In other words, new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer enjoy the new energy subsidy policy.
However, during the "two sessions" in 2022, some representatives proposed to extend the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles.
"2022-2025 is a key opportunity period for the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, and the support for the supply side is weakened or even canceled, and the car company level will need to face the challenges of high cost pressure and self-investment to continue to cultivate demand-side growth momentum." Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, said, "This not only puts forward higher requirements for the strength of car companies themselves, which is not conducive to accelerating the expansion and strengthening of new energy automobile enterprises; and the consumer market still needs the state subsidy policy to release positive signals at the market end and demand side, provide strong guidance and assistance, and enhance the long-term development momentum of the industry from the perspective of stimulating consumption and stabilizing domestic demand." ”
It is noteworthy that since the beginning of this year, domestic new energy vehicles have also experienced two large-scale price increases, which may also hit consumers' enthusiasm for car purchases.
Therefore, as to whether the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is really to completely withdraw from the historical stage at the end of this year, many car companies still have not received a clear signal.
In this regard, Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Eian, proposed at the "Hundred People's Meeting" that "it is recommended that new energy subsidy policies for 2023 and beyond can be introduced in advance to facilitate enterprises to plan in advance." ”
Although the automobile K line has previously expressed its disapproval of the extension of the subsidy policy in the article, the request put forward by Gu Huinan is indeed reasonable.
Previously, the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy has been extended for a precedent, regardless of whether the new energy subsidy policy is continued after 2022, the state should give car companies a clear statement as soon as possible, rather than letting new energy vehicle companies sit in a passive state of waiting for the policy for a long time. After all, car companies are still very sensitive to subsidy policies, and it is also related to the subsequent strategic layout and formulation.
In short, in the critical period of the transformation of the automobile industry, a clear and clear national subsidy policy is very important for many new energy vehicle companies that are formulating development plans.
Of course, since the decision to withdraw from the new energy subsidy, it should also be resolutely implemented. Looking at Tesla CEO Musk, there is no need for subsidies at all, only in this way can companies give up their illusions, try to reduce costs, and focus on products and technologies to impress users. After all, China's new energy vehicle market has developed, and there are still limited number restrictions and other potential means to escort the development of new energy vehicles.